I don’t disagree with you. It wasn’t Reagan’s great debate performance that launched him to a landslide. The debate merely allowed Americans to see that he was an acceptable alternative to the hapless Jimmuh Carter. Folks were able to see that Reagan was intelligent and was not the boogeyman he had been painted out to be.
Great debate performances are indeed overrated, but gaffes can be significant, as you pointed out.
After Obama, Americans will be looking for someone who is, first and foremost, competent. Perry is quite competent, but he looked and sounded bewildered at times in the debate the other night.
And it isn’t debate technique that matters. It’s visceral. “Can I picture this person as president?” (How 53% of people came to that conclusion about Obama, I will never understand. I think there were other factors involved. Moral narcissism, people wanting to feel good about themselves for voting for a black guy, people wanting to feel “part of”, etc.)
Obama is poised for defeat, provided that the GOP nominee is someone who can be perceived as president. The media will be working overtime to boogeyman him, call him dumb, extreme, etc. I like how he stays cool under fire, but he was a stammering mess at the end of the night. It certainly gave me pause.