A Tuesday GOP Sweep Taking Shape?

Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York’s 9th Congressional District. He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided.
Turner’s winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He’s ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he’s winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.
If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him. It’s a given that Republicans don’t like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he’s below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.

… but Josh Trevino notes that folks on the Right (myself included) haven’t always had such warm and fuzzy feelings about Public Policy Polling: “Today is the day we conservatives pretend we respect PPP polling, because it brings NY-9 wish fulfillment.” Having said that, we should also acknowledge that polling in special elections like this one is tougher than in a regular election because of the often much-lower turnout.

Over in the Corner, Patrick Brennan notes, “The race has been portrayed as a referendum on Obama, particularly his Israel policy and the national debt. In a heavily Jewish district, Turner has placed much of his hope for a victory on convincing likely voters that he will be a better friend to Israel than his Orthodox Jewish opponent, David Weprin, because of Obama’s cool attitude towards Israel. He has apparently succeeded, leading Weprin by a huge margin, 56 points to 39, among Jewish voters – a worrisome omen for Obama in 2012.”

These reports are simply a demoralization plot. They are trying to crush conservative hope. I won’t hold my breath expecting the pubbie to win.

This is the 2nd poll showing Turner leadimg. National Review wants to demoralize the right?

Very desperate

Imagine renting a storefront for only a couple of days!

They are also inundating the NYC airwaves with ads - which is almost unheard of in this type of race because the 'Rats are usually lopsided winners. Naturally enough, their ads are playing to the same old bromides: that Turner is filthy rich and wants "tax breaks" for corporations, that he will put Social Security and Medicare in danger, and that the New York Times endorses Weprin. (I would think that the Times endorsement would hardly play to Weprin's advantage.)

I would put my money on RINOs and so-called moderates.

What kind of guy is Turner anyway? Running as Pubbie in NYS is usually only a tiny baby step removed from being a demrat.

They're out in force, as always.

I remember going to a town hall meeting held in my district by the former congressman, Michael McMahon, which was flooded by CWA redshirts demanding that their benefits not be taxed in Obamacare.

The rats cannot afford to lose this. They will win “By Whatever Means Necessary”. They will have Armies of the Undead marching on the district from NJ and Long Island if they need to. Be prepared for massive vote fraud.

If the Repubs manage to pull this off, it will send a shockwave throughout the Dem Party.

It will be interesting to see what effect those ads have. Jude Wanniski had long argued that voters are able to see through those kinds of ads and discount them this close to the election.

Voters can be uncannily accurate in judge the candidate who best represents their wishes and interests. Obama beat McCain on several issues only to undo his promises. That’s why Obama is out.

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