Nigeria and Boko Haram

On Sunday (August 28), Nigeria’s president, Goodluck Jonathan, visited the scene of last week’s bombing at the United Nations office in Abuja, the capital, and said the sort of things that presidents must say on such occasions. Since the UN was involved, he said that it had been not just an attack on Nigeria, but on the whole international community. But then he said that the group behind the blast, Boko Haram, was a “local problem” that would be dealt with.

So which is it? An attack on the whole international community, or just a local problem? The answer is important, especially for Nigeria itself. “Attacks on the international community” are basically meaningless. What is the international community going to do? Surrender? But attacks on Nigeria’s unity, though just a “local problem”, are a very serious threat to Africa’s biggest country.

The miracle is that the 150 million Nigerians still live in the same country at all. Nigeria fought a bloody civil war to stop the secession of the southeast region, the main source of the country’s oil riches, only seven years after getting its independence in 1960.

That war was triggered by a military coup by military officers from the Muslim north of the country which inaugurated a period of three decades during Nigeria’s rulers were mostly Muslim generals from the north. The north is much poorer than the Christian south, but the generals ended up very rich.

Thank You for the ping.

Nigeria is a miracle nation. This attack, according to the article, is based out of the Moslem north, if I was reading correctly. Based on information, in the article, both the North (Moslem) and the South (Christian) are nervous and fearful of the situation. The article also mentions another civil war is possible in Nigeria, but does not make a prediction of another fight beginning. From your knowledge of this region does a civil war become more likely (between North and South) based upon the sheiks losing control (mentioned in the article) or less likely based upon the sheiks losing control?

Also from the article:
12 Muslim-majority states of Nigeria adopted Sharia law, even though some contain large Christian minorities. The strategy did not halt the decline of the sheiks’ power, but it certainly created an environment in which Islamist extremists could prosper
Are there two separate power structures in the North? This is not mentioned in the article.

When the British first came to Northern Nigeria, they ruled through the local Emirs (what the writer of the article terms as “Sheiks”). So the British created a structure in which the Muslim Emirs were dominant over large Christian minorities.

Secondly, Northern Nigeria was ruled separately from Southern Nigeria under the British. (Northern Nigeria and Southern Nigeria were merely joined together to save administrative costs). The British also favoured Muslim recruitment into the Armed Forces due to the “Martial Races” (Bullshit) theory that was fashionable at that time (in India Sikhs, Gurkhas and Muslims were favoured as “Martial Races”, so when India gave Pakistan a good hiding many old colonial types in Britain were surprised that their “Martial Races” were not up to the job).

The power of the Emirs remains strong, but is fraying at the edges. By insisting on Shari’a they uncaged a tiger that may eventually consume them. Sharia gave many young pious men an excuse to insist on a purer form of Islam and the Emirs could not claim to be pure as they are very heavily involved in Nigeria’s legendary corruption. So a few months ago we were treated to the spectacle of Emirs being attacked and their palaces being burnt.

Is another Civil War possible in Nigeria? Yes. Many Southern Nigerians and Northern Nigerian Christians are tired of continuous provocation by Northern Nigerian Muslims and they want to solve this problem once and for all.

If the Civil War occurs, and we pray it does not the consequences will be deadly. Nigeria is not small, it has a population of 150 million. There is no nation on earth, not the US (after Somalia) or UK or France that has either the will or frankly the means to intervene militarily. Nigeria has 75 million Muslims (at least 3 times the population of Iraq) and Nigeria is not desert, it is swamp, rain forest and savannah.

50% Moslem, 50% Christian. What takes place in Nigeria will perhaps be a window on the world as a whole. Civil War or World War is not preferred as a solution, agreed, though will be a real possibility, if something does not change for the better soon. Looks like the number traps for conflict are growing. Pray for Peace, Prepare for War.

Thank You. I appreciate your insight and perspective.

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