It’s a strange storm, isn’t it? Instead of strengthening, it stays around 100-110 mph, but it just gets a little bigger. Something is messing up the backside of it as well. I don’t know enough about meteorology to understand a lot of what’s in play, but the southwest edge of the storm is just sort of...not there. It’s like it only has 3/4 of an eyewall. It almost looks like it’s trying to fall apart, where it should be strengthening somewhat.
}:-)4
Right, and the 11am forecast discussion only addresses a possible future change:
“SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.”
That’s the good news... the bad news is for North Carolina:
At 11am, the position fix was reported as 30.7N, 77.3W.
The 2pm position fix is now reported as 31.2, 77.5W.
That’s a sizable swing to the west for a storm that’s supposed to be starting toward the east. As I’ve been saying, that really puts Emerald Isle into direct play.
By 11pm, they expect 32.2N, 77.1W. We’ll see about that.