Right, and the 11am forecast discussion only addresses a possible future change:
“SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.”
That’s the good news... the bad news is for North Carolina:
At 11am, the position fix was reported as 30.7N, 77.3W.
The 2pm position fix is now reported as 31.2, 77.5W.
That’s a sizable swing to the west for a storm that’s supposed to be starting toward the east. As I’ve been saying, that really puts Emerald Isle into direct play.
By 11pm, they expect 32.2N, 77.1W. We’ll see about that.
I’m not buying it. To get back on the Stormpulse track (a Cape Lookout landfall), Irene would have to slice like one of John Daly’s drives and nothing seems to indicate that it will.
}:-)4