Even Democrats are comparing Obama to Jimmy Carter. Jimmy Carter lost New York to Ronald Reagan in 1980. Any chance Obama could lose New York in 2012?
I will say this, I hardly know any Obama supporters here in NY, meaning anyone who thinks he is doing a good job at this point, even friends and co- workers who don’t follow politics at all have woken up.
No saying he will lose NY, but it is possible.
2. Demographics in the state have changed considerably. In addition to immigration, the state once had a significant population of culturally conservative Democrats who voted for Reagan in protest against what their party had become on issues like bussing and criminal justice. Most of these folks are now pushing up daisies six feet under, and failed to pass on their values/outlook to their children.
3. Upstate had bled population, and the suburbs have trended Dem since the 90s. Even if we were able to win Suffolk (where Bush received 49% in 2004, losing to Kerry by only a few thousand votes), it still couldn't overcome the margins for Obama in the city.
In order for a Republican to win statewide, they must post high victory margins in the suburbs (a tough task for anyone to the right of Pataki) and post a respectable losing margin in the city. This is how Nixon and Reagan did it, but that was another place and time. Chance of a GOP pickup is highly unlikely.
2. Demographics in the state have changed considerably. In addition to immigration, the state once had a significant population of culturally conservative Democrats who voted for Reagan in protest against what their party had become on issues like bussing and criminal justice. Most of these folks are now pushing up daisies six feet under, and failed to pass on their values/outlook to their children.
3. Upstate had bled population, and the suburbs have trended Dem since the 90s. Even if we were able to win Suffolk (where Bush received 49% in 2004, losing to Kerry by only a few thousand votes), it still couldn't overcome the margins for Obama in the city.
In order for a Republican to win statewide, they must post high victory margins in the suburbs (a tough task for anyone to the right of Pataki) and post a respectable losing margin in the city. This is how Nixon and Reagan did it, but that was another place and time. Chance of a GOP pickup is highly unlikely.