Joe, I have a different idea about those “independent” last minute voters. They have no depth of political interest. They tend to decide late and they usually decide on the candidate who is generating the most excitement and the largest crowds. They interpret that as a sign of a winner and they go with who they think is going to win. So far
Sarah Palin is hands down the biggest crowd magnet I’ve ever seen, and the media can’t help keeping her in the news. The crowd noise is up to us. We have to provide the ground game.
But also folks turn on the celebrity in an instant take Tiger Woods for example. Which brings me to my original point that any winning president has to know the electorate and not alienate the small number that decides elections
And excitement comes from the base.