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I suppose where we part ways is the claim that Perry would somehow be "more electable" in the other 49 states than any of the other Governors running for President. I don't think he would be, and aside from Rush Limbaugh that seems to the sentiment of everyone else I've met who lives in those 49 states Perry would have to campaign in.

We can agree to disagree on that point. If you are correct that people in the other 49 states see Perry as another "compassionate conservative," I would contend they have that opinion because they don't know enough about him. He's not a high-profile governor.

He has a charm factor that tends to sway non-Texans when they encounter him. He's very good at extolling his conservative virtues when he campaigns. He'd quickly win over non-Texans if he ran.

To me, Pawlenty is just boring. He couldn't match Perry's charm to win over the superficial voters who make elections a popularity contest. And, IMO, Romney has the healthcare albatross around his neck. I don't think he can overcome that no matter how he spins it.

If Perry has a significant negative to overcome in the other 49 (as opposed to his negatives with Texans,) it would probably be the "not another governor from Texas" syndrome.

I think your arguments are basically the GOP version of why the Dems went with John Kerry in 2004. Howard Dean was a lunatic, Edwards was an empty suit, and Wesley Clark was a flip-flopped, so they tagged the stable, reliable, non-controversal, continually re-elected John Kerry as the "more electable" choice.

Once he emerged as the nominee, however, they discovered Mike Dukasis' Lt. Governor didn't play well in the other 49 states. People outside of his homestate reacted with "Geesh, not ANOTHER Massachusetts liberal elitist for President?" There was no enthusiasm for Kerry, anyone who voted for him was voting "anti-Bush" more than anything else.

A different Massachuttes Democrat like Paul Tsongas might have broken out of that stereotype but Kerry was too much of a retread of past Democrats despite the fact he tried to make himself Kennedyesque instead of Dukasisesque (as Perry would no doubt try to run on Reagan's mantle instead of GWB's). Kerry running on "but I'm different -- I won THREE purple hearts!" didn't help.

I could see another Texan winning the White House in my lifetime, but Bush's right-hand guy Rick Perry won't be the one, IMO.