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Species Extinction Rates Grossly Overestimated
Live Science ^ | May 18, 2011 | Jennifer Welsh

Posted on 05/18/2011 8:17:47 PM PDT by 1010RD

A group of researchers agrees that Earth is facing a mass extinction event, but they are daring to overturn dogma on how fast species are disappearing. The researchers say they have discovered why and they recommend a different way to calculate the rates.

SNIP

We don't even know how many species actually exist, though it is known that biodiversity is declining drastically. Previously estimated extinction rates — some experts thought half the world's plant and animal species would be gone by 2000 — haven't matched what's actually been observed. Other researchers have claimed the difference originates from the lag time between when a species' habitat becomes unsustainable and when the species begins to disappear.

The researchers believe that the overestimation is actually due to how we derive these estimates in the first place.

SNIP

To prove a species is extinct, however, one has to find the last remaining example of that animal. And Hubbell and He explain that the amount of habitat needed to find the last individual is much larger than the amount needed to find the first.

In fact, the researchers mathematically prove in their paper that the habitat loss required for extinction is always larger, usually much larger — up to 160 percent — than the area required for discovery of a species.

SNIP

Another method, called the endemics-area relationship, is more logical, the researchers say.

They tested the two methods using computer models and with known species, including rain-forest plants and birds in North America, and saw that the endemics-area model is a better fit to the actual data.

The researchers warn, though, that this shouldn't lead to complacency about habitat loss. Many species are still going extinct because humans are destroying and disrupting their habitats.

(Excerpt) Read more at livescience.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: catastrophism
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...current estimates [of extinction] are overblown... but, Many species are still going extinct because humans are destroying and disrupting their habitats.

Good and short article once again demonstrating that design of experiments is weak when mingled with funding and political agendas.

1 posted on 05/18/2011 8:17:50 PM PDT by 1010RD
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To: SunkenCiv

Of potential interest to your list, when you wake up. ;-]


2 posted on 05/18/2011 8:18:50 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD
We don't even know how many species actually exist, though it is known that biodiversity is declining drastically.

Brilliant deduction "scientists/experts", good to know your on top of things.

"Biodiversity".....how I hate that word, too close to diversity!

3 posted on 05/18/2011 8:27:03 PM PDT by PROCON (Liberals Mistake Education and Knowledge for Wisdom and Common Sense.)
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To: 1010RD
overturn dogma on how fast species are disappearing.

There is no money for species that aren't dying.

Conflict of interest, but hey, that's science!

4 posted on 05/18/2011 8:27:49 PM PDT by occamrzr06
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To: 1010RD
Time to remind people that "extinction" does not mean what you think it means. You think "extinction" mean there are no more individual members of a species left on earth--that they are gone, kaput, like the dodo and the passenger pigeon.

This is not what 'extinction' means in the all important politicized scientific slum-world of the environmental wackoes. In that feeble twilight world of assholery, "extinction" means that a local population has disappeared--like from a river, say, or a valley. The same animal/plant may be flourishing a few miles away but if they are no longer present in a given locale, then the envrio-nazis will say they are "extinct."

This, btw, is the language and definition of extinction used by the Endangered Species Act (ESA,) and is the reason these whorehouse versions of scientists get away with such lies.

You can look it up.

5 posted on 05/18/2011 8:30:43 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: 1010RD

Are you saying that the leftist Greenies are lying?

Wow, that’s never happened before.


6 posted on 05/18/2011 8:32:57 PM PDT by lurk
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To: hinckley buzzard
"extinction" means that a local population has disappeared

So, basically, if I don't have anymore beer in my fridge, my beer isn't extinct, I'm just too lazy to get more?

7 posted on 05/18/2011 8:35:45 PM PDT by PROCON (Liberals Mistake Education and Knowledge for Wisdom and Common Sense.)
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To: 1010RD

Excellent article, it’s not science, it’s an agenda. Greenies always twist what little “data” to fit their agenda to control every aspect of our lives.


8 posted on 05/18/2011 8:37:01 PM PDT by brushcop
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To: 1010RD

Biodiversity. Wherever that word appears in the context of a region, it is usually followed by a land grab.


9 posted on 05/18/2011 8:37:15 PM PDT by wheresmyusa (FTUN)
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To: 1010RD

THe only species I want to go into extinction are communists, islamis jihadists/fundamentalists, nazis, Democrats and liberals.

Not just on the Endangered Feces list - pure extinction. Darwin would approve.


10 posted on 05/18/2011 8:42:53 PM PDT by MadMax, the Grinning Reaper
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To: hinckley buzzard

Besides, I can’t take supposedly educated people who use the phrase “go extinct” anyway. The proper phrase is “become extinct”. So, as long as they can’t speak properly how can I imagine they actually have an education? Idiots.


11 posted on 05/18/2011 8:50:07 PM PDT by brytlea (If you don't know what APOD is you'd better find out!)
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To: 1010RD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwOMoC40q6k&feature=related

Thylacine at about 48S.

Certainly carnivorous, doesn't look canine to me.



12 posted on 05/18/2011 8:54:51 PM PDT by djf ("Life is never fair...And perhaps it is a good thing for most of us that it is not." Oscar Wilde)
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To: brushcop

If we’re not guilty, fearful or ashamed they can’t control us.


13 posted on 05/18/2011 8:56:23 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD
I respect all thing that swim, creep, fly, and crawl upon this earth. I mourn the loss of any of the creator's works of living art. That being said, many of the species they are talking about are outside the borders of the United States, and not the concern of our government or our populace. If wealthy people want to save the rainforest more power to them, the Nature Conservancy accepts donations. As someone said the definition of extinction is also in question. For example I love the thought of wild horses running in the Pryor Mountains of Wyoming but if somebody shot every last one of them, there would still be horses in this world, but someone might write that the Pryor Mountain wild horse herd was extinct. Predictions of future events is an iffy proposition especially when dealing with biology. The source of many of these proclamations of eminent extinction are political in nature. Life has a way of surprising academics with its resiliency, so many of these articles are people making some noise to further their own careers.
14 posted on 05/18/2011 8:58:27 PM PDT by dog breath
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To: wheresmyusa

Biodiversity joins a long list of liberal/progressive memes without meaning.

What is sustainable? What is renewable? These nonsense words rule our world. Words without meaning mean whatever ‘we’ want them to mean whenever ‘we’ want them to.

Diversity, tolerance, and even hate and love are twisted all out of normalcy.

Which I suppose is the goal.


15 posted on 05/18/2011 8:59:21 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: MadMax, the Grinning Reaper

I hear you, but actually the more I read history the more I realize that these nuts have been with us, in one form or another, since the dawn of time.

Has there ever been an era of human history without maniacal control-freaks with a slaver’s agenda?


16 posted on 05/18/2011 9:06:38 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: djf

It is weird looking.


17 posted on 05/18/2011 9:17:14 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD

“What is sustainable?”

Nothing.


18 posted on 05/18/2011 9:17:45 PM PDT by wheresmyusa (FTUN)
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To: dog breath

Add in the fossil record and the history of life on earth is extinction. Which way do they want it - natural or unnatural?


19 posted on 05/18/2011 9:26:11 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: wheresmyusa

Exactly.


20 posted on 05/18/2011 9:27:05 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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