Nevada 2012: Palin 50.1%, Obama 49.9% or Palin 42%, Obama 46.5% (W/O Assumptions)

Poll Insider ^ | 04/27/2011 | pollinsider

[unseen1]

In 2008, Barack Obama defeated John McCain in Nevada by a whopping 12%, 55%-43%. By analyzing a recent PPP release, we note that Palin is within 4% points, or even tied depending on how deep your analysis goes.

First, the PPP results show that Obama leads Palin by 50%-39% in the state, which isn’t even bad by any measure. But, like always, that poll is incredibly skewed towards Democrats as they make up a whopping 45% of those polled, to just 35% Republicans and 20% Independents. (In 2010, the Democrats only accounted for 35% of the vote and in Democrat-heavy 2008 they only accounted for 38%. How does PPP get away with this? How is it there is NEVER a poll that is skewed more Republican? And why don’t they correct to offer actual information. I’m pretty sure that if PPP ended up with an 85% Democrat response they’d run with it.)

So, how to analyze the data? Is 2012 going to be more like 2008 or more like 2010? As of now, all signs point to it being like 2010. Obama disillusionment isn’t what it was. Democrats are less enchanted than they were in 2008 (though I’m sure plenty aren’t). The excitement of “ooooh, he’s black!” is wearing thin. Not to mention unemployment has double, gas prices are on their way to tripling, everyone is losing their homes, no one can find a job (but McDonalds is hiring if you can break up rowdy gang fights), he’s escalated one war and started another, and everyone wants to repeal his signature legislation. So yeah, I think we will go with it’s looking a lot more like 2010.

When we use the actual 2010 figures for turnout, PPP’s heavily-biased result of 50-39 become Palin 42%, Obama 46.5%. Palin leads 42-40 among independents. The good news for Palin is that, in the poll, almost all of the Democrats are decided, and just 7% aren’t sure if they would go for Obama or Palin. As is normally the case, the undecideds for the challenger are much higher and 14% of Republicans are unsure. Meanwhile, a solid 18% of Independents are not sure. (Note: The reason challengers always have a greater percentage of “unsures” than incumbents is because incumbents are unlikely to be challenged in a primary, and the party voters knows that is the candidate. As for challengers, supporters of other primary opponents, in this case non-Palin primary voters, often choose unsure as they are less willing to commit to/inflate a candidate that they are not currently supporting as their top choice).

While the 4% margin is scientific and a good barometer of where the race is actually at in this stage, what is about to follow is speculative. First, we can assume that most of the 7% of Obama’s Democrat “unsure” base will fall to him. The better news for Palin is we can assume most of the 14% unsure Republican base will go to her. This bumps the race to 48.6% Obama, 46.2% Palin. Finally, Palin already leads slighty among independents 42-40. Late deciders usually go for the challenger by 3-2 Margins. If we assume the final 17% breakout of undecided Independents goes 3-2 in her favor, the new total becomes Palin 50.1%, Obama 49.9%.

So, from one poll, I provide 4 different scenarios. I present, you decide:

1) PPP “analysis” (with Dems oversampled by 10% to normal electorate): Obama 50% Palin 39%

2) Pollinsider Standard 2010 Party Affiliation Correction (Adjusted to 2010 Turnout/Probably 2012 Turnout, No Assumptions): Obama 46.5%, Palin 42%

3) Pollinsider Party Affiliation Unsure Adjustment (Assumes “unsures” will vote in similar fashion to rest of party): Obama: 48.6%, Palin 46.2%

4) Pollinsider Independent Assumption (Tacks onto #3 but assumes “unsure” independents breaking for challenger by normal 3-2 margin): Palin 50.1%, Obama 49.9%

No matter what scenario you choose, Palin is out-performing McCain’s 2008 vote total. In my 3 analysis, she is well within the margin of error, statistically tied, or even leading. Not bad for someone with the press she has gotten. Given her favorables could only get better (and Obama’s?) this is a very good starting point.

So I ask, unelectable?

[WinOne4TheGipper]

I don’t believe it! I’ve grown up with the accuracy of Dan Rather and the fairness of Peter Jennings!

[unseen1]

yeah they told me Santa Clause was real too.

[SarahPalinForPresident2012]

Gov Palin will be the next POTUS by a landslide

[SuziQ]

It means the Democrats will think they’re not trashing her enough, and they need to step it up.

[org.whodat]

The year is 2011, hell you do not have the same electorate living in Nevada as in 2008: Meaningless dribble.

[NTHockey]

All the PPP polls show is that the RATs don’t care about high gas prices, high food prices, no jobs, America’s looming deficit or even our freedom. If 0bambi gets four more years, there will be no America left in 2016.