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Donald Trump's 'Fair Trade' Rhetoric Hurts Republicans' White House Chances
American Thinker ^ | 04/25/2011 | Chuck Roger

Posted on 04/25/2011 7:29:20 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

After a recent phone conversation with Donald Trump, syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer concluded that The Donald is "absolutely" serious about seeking the GOP Presidential nomination.  That's unfortunate.  The illiberal media will have a field day with Mr. Trump's flawed ideas on free trade.

In January, Trump complained to talk radio's Michael Savage that Americans "no longer make things" and in March told a CNN interviewer, "Nobody, other than OPEC, is ripping off the United States like China."  In the CNN interview, Trump also said that China "is stealing all our jobs" and "making all our products."  He advocated "a 25 percent tax on products that come into the United States."

The billionaire professes a preference for "fair trade" over free trade and promises that as President, he would not raise taxes.  But taxing previously untaxed products does constitute a tax increase.  Perhaps Trump doesn't understand that prosperity and jacked-up prices are mutually exclusive conditions.  Confusion is not what America needs in its next President.  Already the current President exhibits enough wrong-headedness to stifle economic growth for decades.

Trump's foreign trade ideas are way off base.  Cato Institute's Daniel Griswold examined America's economic performance over the last thirty years.  In a new report, Griswold finds

... no evidence that a rising level of imports or growing trade deficits have negatively affected the U.S. economy. In fact, since 1980, the U.S. economy has grown more than three times faster during periods when the trade deficit was expanding as a share of GDP compared to periods when it was contracting. Stock market appreciation, manufacturing output, and job growth were all significantly more robust during periods of expanding imports and trade deficits.

Higher economic growth correlates with larger trade deficits.  The link makes economic sense to sound thinkers.  When we Americans prosper so much that domestically-produced stuff is insufficient to meet our needs, we buy more and more stuff from other countries.  This healthy economic condition causes a trade deficit.  Protectionists like Trump seem oblivious to such basic facts.

The last time Washington reacted in a big way to calls for trade protectionism of the sort promoted by Mr. Trump, the resulting Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 raised import duties almost 60 percent on agricultural and manufactured goods.  America's global trading partners enacted retaliatory tariffs.  Exports and imports dropped by more than 50 percent and helped turn a recession into the Great Depression.

Trump's belief that Americans "no longer make things" is plainly false.  Even during the current major downturn, American manufacturing output has been running near record highs.  Cato Institute's Alan Reynolds observes that protectionists like Trump ignore the fact that "the U.S. is by far the world's largest manufacturer [his emphasis], with China trailing by 22 percent" as of 2008.  China is a more distant second place in good economic times.  But manufacturing output is not even the biggest bugger-boo on most people's minds.  University of Michigan economist Mark Perry captures Americans' most distressing concern -- jobs:

It's true that the U.S. has lost more than 5.5 million manufacturing jobs in the last ten years, from more than 17 million jobs in 2000 to fewer than 12 million jobs in 2010... And yet during that same period, manufacturing output (data here) actually increased by more than 5%, from $3.1 trillion in 2000 to $3.26 trillion (measured in 2005 dollars) this year...  On a per employee basis, manufacturing output per worker increased by more than 50%, from $182,000 in 2000 to $278,000 [in 2010.]

George Mason University economist Don Boudreaux adds:

It's true that manufacturing jobs are decreasing, but rather than blame the Chinese, [Trump's] anger would be better targeted... if [he] blamed American innovators and even American manufacturing workers.

Boudreaux's point makes protectionists on both left and right squirm.  Neither China's nor any other country's workers pose the biggest threat to American manufacturing jobs.  Productive workers and continuously improving technology keep America in first place output-wise and render domestic manufacturing job growth categorically unnecessary.  That's reality.

Would President Trump have forced manufacturers to forgo productivity improvements and continue to pay 5.5 million unneeded employees?  Such logic smacks of the utopian world that lives in the minds of progressives, a world in which citizens wearing saccharin smiles work the fields with horse-drawn plows while government and union "protectors" keep farm equipment manufacturers at bay.  Government edicts that force companies to retain extra employees, or pay artificially high wages, or charge unnaturally inflated prices put companies out of business-just like FDR's interventionism did in the 1930s.

Sadly, Mr. Trump doesn't restrict his flawed thinking to tariff nonsense.  In a CPAC address, he claimed, "We are rebuilding China because we buy their products."  Don Boudreaux asks:

What do the Chinese do with the dollars that we use to buy their products? Do they burn these dollars or otherwise not use them commercially? ... If the Chinese do not burn their dollars, then they (or other foreigners with whom the Chinese deal) must use these dollars either to buy American products or to invest in the U.S. economy (or both). To the extent that foreigners buy our products, by [Trump's] reckoning they must be "rebuilding" America. ... Do such investments harm America? Does foreign investment in America not help to "rebuild" America? If not, why not?

Inconvenient questions.  Boudreaux's line of reasoning highlights a stark realization: China's businesses and economy would be mortally wounded by any strategy that weakens their best customer's prosperity.  Why indeed would the Chinese government intentionally decimate an American economy on whose health Chinese people depend?

America is a nation most threatened by the economic dunderheadedness of its own politicians, progressive and conservative alike.  Today's voters have no business putting faith in someone who pushes one of the most jobs-destroying farces of all: trade protectionism.  Mr. Trump's protectionist ideas certainly stir popular support, but acting on those ideas would reincarnate the 1930s on steroids.

Nevertheless, Trump will probably continue to preach "fair trade."  He will advance seductive fallacies that boost his popularity among easily seduced voters.  Between The Donald's foreign trade rhetoric and his scrutiny on the circumstances surrounding Obama's birth, the most significant effect of a Trump presidential campaign would be to make a mess out of the Republican nomination process.

A writer, physicist, and former high tech executive, Chuck Rogér invites you to sign up to receive his "Clear Thinking" blog posts by e-mail at www.chuckroger.com.  Contact Chuck at swampcactus@chuckroger.com.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: donaldtrump; fairtrade; potus
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To: moehoward

Trump has a point that is being missed in that “innovators” create intellectual property, which the Chinese then steal without compunction. If there is not a leader to stop this piracy of our intellectual property, one who has the insight and courage to do so, then it makes it impossible to ultimately benefit from the innovation.


61 posted on 04/25/2011 11:19:23 AM PDT by AmericanVictory (Should we be more like them or they more like we used to be?)
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To: Regulator
You want to buy china junk...move to china.

Don't want to pay taxes on china junk? Don't buy china junk.

Entirely voluntary system.

Right. So you want to use taxes to force people to live their lives as you see fit. That's your prerogative, but don't call it conservative.

62 posted on 04/25/2011 11:22:59 AM PDT by xjcsa (Ridiculing the ridiculous since the day I was born.)
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To: Regulator
the first one to use name-calling

Whatever, junior.

Much easier than trying to make a cogent argument, I guess.

63 posted on 04/25/2011 11:23:41 AM PDT by xjcsa (Ridiculing the ridiculous since the day I was born.)
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To: AmericanVictory
Trump has a point that is being missed in that “innovators” create intellectual property, which the Chinese then steal without compunction. If there is not a leader to stop this piracy of our intellectual property, one who has the insight and courage to do so, then it makes it impossible to ultimately benefit from the innovation.

If this was his point, I would agree entirely. I'm a pretty hardcore free-trader, but we must protect intellectual property rights from the pirates taking cover in China.

64 posted on 04/25/2011 11:25:20 AM PDT by xjcsa (Ridiculing the ridiculous since the day I was born.)
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To: xjcsa

We are also hurt, and I hope he has the courage to address this, by the fact that party run slave labor camps which manufacture goods for export are not classified as such by our Department of State, which idiotically allows the Chicoms to escape having them called what they clearly are by terming the “re-education” camps. The export trade in harvested human organs also needs to be stopped. Prisoners are killed for their organs. These heinous practices need to be addressed and not avoided in the name of free trade.


65 posted on 04/25/2011 11:31:37 AM PDT by AmericanVictory (Should we be more like them or they more like we used to be?)
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To: SeekAndFind

“Free trade” is for chumps. Winner nations engage in aggressive and predatory trade practices. Not very nice but that’s the way the world works.


66 posted on 04/25/2011 11:55:32 AM PDT by dennisw (nzt - "works better if you're already smart")
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To: xjcsa
Right. So you want to use taxes to force people to live their lives as you see fit. That's your prerogative, but don't call it conservative.

Darn right I don't mind the imposition of tariffs. Tariffs used to fund the Federal government. Tariffs are very conservative. They conserve US jobs and help our capitalists. You can argue that tariffs are not libertarian, you are probably libertarian anyway

67 posted on 04/25/2011 12:00:12 PM PDT by dennisw (nzt - "works better if you're already smart")
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To: dennisw

Dang Dennis, yer good!


68 posted on 04/25/2011 12:06:05 PM PDT by Regulator (Watch Out! Americans are on the March! America Forever, Mexico Never!)
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To: dennisw
Darn right I don't mind the imposition of tariffs. Tariffs used to fund the Federal government. Tariffs are very conservative. They conserve US jobs and help our capitalists. You can argue that tariffs are not libertarian, you are probably libertarian anyway

Got it. Higher taxes = more jobs.

69 posted on 04/25/2011 12:31:37 PM PDT by xjcsa (Ridiculing the ridiculous since the day I was born.)
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To: xjcsa

Like I said, you have no clue what you are talking about.

First, the only time the federal government would get a cut in the supply chain is at the border. Right now, the US taxes very little at the border with MFN countries and nothing or close to nothing with free trade treaty countries.

Second, the tariff is passed onto the consumer in what way? The wholesaler doesn’t pass on any taxes, because his good that he bought is a tax deductible operating cost, and wholesalers don’t pay sales taxes for what they buy. Operating costs are not subject to taxation, so this notion that the retailer passes on the tax to consumers is a lame, dishonest argument. The retailer doesn’t pay any direct taxes either, because the retailer directly passes on the sales tax to the consumer AFTER the sale. In most cases, the consumer makes his purchase on the basis of retail price, not the sales tax, and the purchase is completely voluntary. Further, the retailer doesn’t markup the price on the basis of a tariff, but at what he can get his product sold in the free market.

If I buy a bottle of Burgundy at the local restaurant, which was $50 bucks wholesale, with a 10% tariff included, and the restaurant charges $150 for it, it doesn’t matter what the tariff was if I am still buying the wine. Neither the wholesaler nor retailer is making an economic decision based on tariff, but on demand and market price. People in this country still buy French wine even if it is 3 times the cost of equally good domestic wine with tariffs and excise taxes included.

Third, you call me a Commie, because the wholesaler and retailer are making profit on markup—after the tariff. When is the tariff calculated in the retail price? Regardless, if the tariff is included or not, the consumer is still buying with his own free will at markup, so what is your beef with that? The choice still exists. People don’t have to buy any foreign good against their will.

The wholesalers and retailers pay corporate tax on net profit. That’s it. Where else in the supply chain do they pay a tax to the federal government? This notion that they pass on their taxes to the consumer is a bogus argument, because they are taxed only on net profit, which comes long after the sale. No retailer or wholesaler is taxed on a per unit basis unless it is an particular, targeted excise tax, which is a domestic tax.

I have yet to hear a free traitor argue that domestic excise taxes destroy the economy.

Fourth, what makes you free traitors have no credibility is that you harp on and on about how tariffs are a tax on the consumer, which they are not, but you do absolutely nothing to roll back excise, sales taxes and other direct taxes on the consumers. I have yet to hear one conservative with any power in any state or federal level cry about how domestic sales taxes hurt industry like they do when it comes to protecting foreign capital from tariffs.

And you do nothing about the discriminatory practices of foreign countries against American capital in foreign countries. Why give free reign to foreign countries in the US when they do everything in their power to protect their domestic industry against the free and fair competition of American products and services?

Which would you rather have, a tax on foreign capital and a roll back of domestic taxes and/or reduction of debt, or a tax on domestic capital and income and no taxes on foreign capital?


70 posted on 04/25/2011 12:53:59 PM PDT by radpolis (Liberals: You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy)
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To: xjcsa
"Do you not understand that import tariffs are taxes on *American* consumers?"

A completely voluntary tax. Don't what to pay the tax don't buy the imported product. It is a proven system that works for the benefit of the nation and it's citizens. Unlike the progressive income tax which replaced tariffs as the primary source of tax revenue for the federal government. You obviously like the progressive income tax better, how progressive of you.

71 posted on 04/25/2011 1:21:38 PM PDT by jpsb
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To: radpolis
First, the only time the federal government would get a cut in the supply chain is at the border. Right now, the US taxes very little at the border with MFN countries and nothing or close to nothing with free trade treaty countries.

Why is it so important that the government get to tax these goods? Where in the supply chain do they tax American goods? Why are so many here arguing in favor of higher taxes?

Second, the tariff is passed onto the consumer in what way? The wholesaler doesn’t pass on any taxes, because his good that he bought is a tax deductible operating cost, and wholesalers don’t pay sales taxes for what they buy. Operating costs are not subject to taxation, so this notion that the retailer passes on the tax to consumers is a lame, dishonest argument. The retailer doesn’t pay any direct taxes either, because the retailer directly passes on the sales tax to the consumer AFTER the sale. In most cases, the consumer makes his purchase on the basis of retail price, not the sales tax, and the purchase is completely voluntary. Further, the retailer doesn’t markup the price on the basis of a tariff, but at what he can get his product sold in the free market.

So you're arguing that the money for the tariffs is created by magic and imposes no costs on the transactions?

I'll tell you where the tariff is passed on: higher prices at every stage of the supply chain after the tariff is imposed. If you charge the Chinese exporter, they'll build it into the cost they charge the American importer. If you charge the American importer, they'll build it into the cost they charge the wholesaler or retailer, whoever's next in the chain. And it gets passed on from there. If that makes the goods in question too expensive to compete, then the goods won't sell, and the field shifts in favor goods which couldn't otherwise compete. Customers wind up paying more for less, which depletes their ability to spend money on other things, which drags down the economy.

If I buy a bottle of Burgundy at the local restaurant, which was $50 bucks wholesale, with a 10% tariff included, and the restaurant charges $150 for it, it doesn’t matter what the tariff was if I am still buying the wine. Neither the wholesaler nor retailer is making an economic decision based on tariff, but on demand and market price. People in this country still buy French wine even if it is 3 times the cost of equally good domestic wine with tariffs and excise taxes included.

You're treating the wholesale and retail charges as fixed in stone, as if they're not themselves affected by the tariff. But they *are* affected by the tariff; remove that 10% tariff and both numbers may well change. And customers *do* factor pricing into their decisions; just because not everyone factors costs in the same way doesn't mean they're not a factor.

Third, you call me a Commie, because the wholesaler and retailer are making profit on markup—after the tariff. When is the tariff calculated in the retail price?

First of all, I'm not the one calling anybody names on this thread; I called you no such thing.

Anyway the tariff isn't "calculated" into the retail price; it's built into the cost of the product along the way. Just because a tax is hidden from the consumer doesn't mean it's not real.

Regardless, if the tariff is included or not, the consumer is still buying with his own free will at markup, so what is your beef with that? The choice still exists. People don’t have to buy any foreign good against their will.

The same is true of sales taxes. Does that mean you're going to argue in favor of raising sales taxes as much as possible? Why not? Either way, you're sapping away people's wealth.

The wholesalers and retailers pay corporate tax on net profit. That’s it.

That's one more tax than I think they *should* be paying.

Where else in the supply chain do they pay a tax to the federal government? This notion that they pass on their taxes to the consumer is a bogus argument, because they are taxed only on net profit, which comes long after the sale.

Corporations don't pay taxes; they only collect taxes. Those taxes are *paid* by some combination of employees, customers, and shareholders. Taxing corporations is just a way of hiding the fact that you're taxing *people*.

No retailer or wholesaler is taxed on a per unit basis unless it is an particular, targeted excise tax, which is a domestic tax.

Again, businesses pass on all taxes in one way or another - usually in some combination of higher prices, lower wages, or lower dividends to shareholders. Do you really think businesses are incapable of estimating their corporate income tax and building it into their pricing? Really?

I have yet to hear a free traitor argue that domestic excise taxes destroy the economy.

Honestly, can we have this discussion in English without the name calling? I mean, it's up to you, but you look ridiculous. And yes, I think all taxes are a drag on the economy - it's not a binary choice. There's a lot of middle ground between "completely benign" and "destroying the economy." Most taxes fall somewhere in the middle - "harmful."

Fourth, what makes you free traitors have no credibility is that you harp on and on about how tariffs are a tax on the consumer, which they are not, but you do absolutely nothing to roll back excise, sales taxes and other direct taxes on the consumers. I have yet to hear one conservative with any power in any state or federal level cry about how domestic sales taxes hurt industry like they do when it comes to protecting foreign capital from tariffs.

What are you talking about? I think *all* taxes should be kept as low as possible. The imported goods you so despise are subject to the same state sales taxes as domestic goods, and the feds have no direct taxes on either, in most/many cases.

And you do nothing about the discriminatory practices of foreign countries against American capital in foreign countries. Why give free reign to foreign countries in the US when they do everything in their power to protect their domestic industry against the free and fair competition of American products and services?

In most cases, that "unfair" competition comes at the expense of *their* people, not ours. Or at the very least, they cost their own people *more* than they cost ours.

Which would you rather have, a tax on foreign capital and a roll back of domestic taxes and/or reduction of debt, or a tax on domestic capital and income and no taxes on foreign capital?

I'd rather keep both as low as possible. In addition, I think we need to revamp our own domestic policies to become more competitive - eliminate the corporate income tax, lower personal income taxes, reduce regulations, etc. The solution isn't to make life harder on foreign businesses; it's to make life easier on our own.

72 posted on 04/25/2011 1:39:01 PM PDT by xjcsa (Ridiculing the ridiculous since the day I was born.)
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73 posted on 04/25/2011 1:44:29 PM PDT by TheOldLady
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To: dennisw

So called “free trade” has done for us what it did for Britain and Spain. Buckle up rocky road ahead.


74 posted on 04/25/2011 1:44:33 PM PDT by jpsb
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To: Regulator

Thanks much! But I have read your arguments through the years and they are longer and better than mine. -:)

If the Donald keep going and decides to run we shall see “The Cato Institute” and “The Club for Growth” come out against him. These two outfits are notorious advocates of “free trade”. Cato gets big corporate funding. CFG — I’m not sure about their funding. Americans have been subjected to “free trade” brainwashing in universities and elsewhere for 50+ years. The Donald just might might break that spell. Pat Buchanan has been speaking about “free trade” for years and I supported him back in 1992 because of it. Ross Perot was right about NAFTA etc back in 1992 but AlGore won their NAFTA debate. AlGore the big free trade man graduated to the larger confidence racket of Global Warming


75 posted on 04/25/2011 1:47:25 PM PDT by dennisw (nzt - "works better if you're already smart")
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To: dennisw
"Pat Buchanan has been speaking about “free trade” for years and I supported him back in 1992 because of it. Ross Perot was right about NAFTA etc back in 1992 "

What a coincidence. Those who are against 'fleece' trade are smeared. Perot was crazy. Buchanan was anti-Semitic. Trump is a joke.

76 posted on 04/25/2011 1:55:25 PM PDT by ex-snook ("Above all things, truth beareth away the victory")
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To: ex-snook

Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot, Donald Trump and you and me are all old school. Production and producers made America great. Not consumption and consumers. Today’s economy is out of whack, tilted towards consumers. And you can include the Federal Government as a giant degenerate consumer that steals from the future (via borrowing) to fund present day consumption.


77 posted on 04/25/2011 2:07:21 PM PDT by dennisw (nzt - "works better if you're already smart")
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To: jpsb
So called “free trade” has done for us what it did for Britain and Spain. Buckle up rocky road ahead.

We would be doing great today if we had ditched "free trade" policies twenty years ago. The sickness is that the consumer was elevated to be king and consumers got catered to with cheap Chinese/Asian imports and oil/energy imports. The flip side is that these jobs, profits and technology leave America. Today the Obama EPA denied Shell the right to drill in Alaska. Shell has sunk billions into this project. The Obama-bots are throttling oil drilling in the Gulf. Both these actions mean fewer American jobs. Less profits for American capitalists. And more money spent abroad to buy foreign oil where they are creating the oil worker jobs

78 posted on 04/25/2011 2:15:22 PM PDT by dennisw (nzt - "works better if you're already smart")
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To: dennisw
Today the Obama EPA denied Shell the right to drill in Alaska. Shell has sunk billions into this project. The Obama-bots are throttling oil drilling in the Gulf. Both these actions mean fewer American jobs. Less profits for American capitalists. And more money spent abroad to buy foreign oil where they are creating the oil worker jobs

You do know that Shell is a Dutch Company?

79 posted on 04/25/2011 2:17:00 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: dfwgator

Yep it did go though my mind that Shell is Anglo-Dutch. With lots of American and American institutional stock holders


80 posted on 04/25/2011 2:31:35 PM PDT by dennisw (nzt - "works better if you're already smart")
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