Posted on 03/14/2011 2:29:02 PM PDT by fightinJAG
The U.S. jobless rate will be 7.7% in November 2012, the highest level for a presidential election month since Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in 1976, according to the average forecast of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey.
That rate is well below the 8.9% reported by the Labor Department for February, but still remains high as economists expect job gains to come slowly. "The labor market is a scar that will be slow to fade," said Sean M. Snaith of the University of Central Florida.
On average, the 54 respondents—not all of whom answer every question—forecast the jobless rate will be 8.8% in June and 8.4% in December of 2011. They forecast the U.S. economy will add about 190,000 jobs a month over the next year—an improvement from the depressed level of job creation so far in this recovery, but still too low to bring the unemployment rate down quickly.
While the 7.7% rate in November 2012 would be the highest in seven presidential election cycles, analysts point out that it is often the overall trend—rather than the level of joblessness—that determines an incumbent's fate. President Carter was defeated in 1980 by Ronald Reagan when the unemployment rate was 7.5%, lower than the level when he was elected but up from 5.6% earlier in his term. Meanwhile, President Reagan was re-elected in 1984 with the rate at 7.2%, but that was down sharply from the peak of 10.8% recorded in 1982.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Not with gas at $5/gal.
And unicorns will be flying and rainbows will produce pots of Obama’s “stash”, right?
Hahahaha
It will be 14.7% or higher, Obotulism is cursed.
Now, y’all, c’mon. These are guvmint numbers we’re talking about and you can be sure the guvmint will have purty numbers come November 2012.
Heard this on Fox News Radio today. If it is true, there is only one question to be answered. Who will perform at O’s second innaugural? If unemployment is under 8 he’s in.
I heard them say on tv that some places in Michigan it is 20%.
And now if we can allow just enough free marketeering to get re-elected. This is going to be a close call. Hiding our real intentions is getting hard. It ain’t easy being a communist in the White House.
This what the bed-wetters and hand-wringers hope and prey. Pink pantied putzs'.
Obama and the merry Marxists will cook the numbers until they get something below 8%. Doesn’t matter what it will take, bank on the “unemployment rate” being under 8% by 2012.
And I fear that’s enough to bring the squishy middle back to Obama.
I’m in the blue part of Ohio. I have a friend, who voted Obama. I asked him over the weekend how he liked Obama now. He sort of squirmed and admitted Obama isn’t very good. Then he said... I don’t think the Reppublicans will give us anything better.
If the GOP doesn’t find someone who inspires confidence in the squishy middle, Obama gets to come back for round 2 of the destruction of America.
I’ll go ahead and predict the unemployment headlines in November 2012 will all contain the word “unexpected”.
Tingleberry...good one.
The unemployment rate should be around 12% (or higher if you count the under-employed) but the government has done a wonderful thing, they no longer count people dropping off the unemployment roles after they have exceeded the 99 weeks of unemployment insurance. They are literally ignoring millions of people in order to get the rate down to 8.8%. It will be an interesting election, the government can say whatever they want about the unemployment rate but the true rate will kill them at the polls.
Hot Damn! Gimme 5 gallons of Both...with lead.
” Jobless Rate at 2012 Presidential Vote Forecast at 7.7% “
Gee - will it be raining that day, too??
sheesh.....
No one thought the financial sector would collapse either, and then it happened. I don’t put much stock in those numbers, as a lot can happen in two years. Heck, a lot can happen over night, just ask the Japanese about it. We do not know what’s going to happen with their sovereign debt crisis, or how many T-bonds their insurance campanies are going to sell to pay for all that damage. Truely, what happens to them in many ways also happens to us. It’s that mutually assured economic destruction thing the world order set up to avoid war, not thinking about mass devestation from earthquakes.
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