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Why the Dollar's Reign Is Near an End
WSJ ^ | 3/1/11 | BARRY EICHENGREEN

Posted on 03/01/2011 4:41:17 PM PST by EBH

For decades the dollar has served as the world's main reserve currency, but, argues Barry Eichengreen, it will soon have to share that role. Here's why—and what it will mean for international markets and companies.

The single most astonishing fact about foreign exchange is not the high volume of transactions, as incredible as that growth has been. Nor is it the volatility of currency rates, as wild as the markets are these days.

Instead, it's the extent to which the market remains dollar-centric.

But as astonishing as that is, what may be even more astonishing is this: The dollar's reign is coming to an end.

The impact of such a shift will be equally profound, with implications for, among other things, the stability of exchange rates, the stability of financial markets, the ease with which the U.S. will be able to finance budget and current-account deficits, and whether the Fed can follow a policy of benign neglect toward the dollar.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: dollar; euro; yuan
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1 posted on 03/01/2011 4:41:19 PM PST by EBH
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; Delacon; ...

Thanks EBH.
OPEC Has Already Turned to the Euro
GoldMoney Alert
February 18, 2004
...The source for the euro exchange rate is the Federal Reserve, and I have calculated the euro's average exchange rate to the dollar for each year based on daily data.
US Imports of Crude oil
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Year
Quantity (thousands of barrels)
Value (thousands of US dollars)
Unit price (US dollars)
Average daily US$ per € exchange rate
Unit price (euros)

2001

3,471,066
74,292,894
21.40
0.8952
23.91
2002
3,418,021
77,283,329
22.61
0.9454
23.92
2003
3,673,596
99,094,675
26.97
1.1321
23.82
We can see from column (4) in the above table that in 2001, each barrel of imported crude oil cost $21.40 on average for that year. But by 2003 the average price of a barrel of crude oil had risen 26.0% to $26.97 per barrel. However, the important point is shown in column (6). Note that the price of crude oil in terms of euros is essentially unchanged throughout this 3-year period.

As the dollar has fallen, the dollar price of crude oil has risen. But the euro price of crude oil remains essentially unchanged throughout this 3-year period. It does not seem logical that this result is pure coincidence. It is more likely the result of purposeful design, namely, that OPEC is mindful of the dollar's decline and increases the dollar price of its crude oil by an amount that offsets the loss in purchasing power OPEC's members would otherwise incur. In short, OPEC is protecting its purchasing power as the dollar declines.

2 posted on 03/01/2011 4:45:08 PM PST by SunkenCiv (The 2nd Amendment follows right behind the 1st because some people are hard of hearing.)
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To: EBH

Printing billions at a time, with no buyers, tends to lessen the value.


3 posted on 03/01/2011 4:50:07 PM PST by allmost
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To: EBH

Printing billions at a time, with no buyers, tends to lessen the value.


4 posted on 03/01/2011 4:50:22 PM PST by allmost
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To: allmost

Hiccup?


5 posted on 03/01/2011 4:51:07 PM PST by allmost
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To: EBH

Bookmark.


6 posted on 03/01/2011 4:53:43 PM PST by SuzyQue (Remember to think.)
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To: EBH

I just hope nobody mentions gold on this thread because its upatriotic and you can’t eat it.


7 posted on 03/01/2011 4:58:53 PM PST by Phillipian (Post Tenebras Lux)
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To: EBH

Why the Dollar’s Reign Is Near an End.

Two words: Obama and Bernanke.


8 posted on 03/01/2011 4:59:32 PM PST by Brilliant
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To: EBH

The day of the dollar is coming to an end.

Find out why by buying my book on Amazon.com.

Only $29.95


9 posted on 03/01/2011 5:01:17 PM PST by SpaceBar
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To: EBH
The Day After The Dollar Crashes
10 posted on 03/01/2011 5:01:40 PM PST by FromLori (FromLori">)
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To: EBH

Putting a radical-marxist muslim-sympathizer arab-loving-kenyan in charge of the US economy... what could go wrong?


11 posted on 03/01/2011 5:02:31 PM PST by samtheman
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To: samtheman
but he's soooo smart...and he's a constitutional scholar...and all the muslims will stop hating us ...and all that
12 posted on 03/01/2011 5:15:55 PM PST by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: Brilliant
Why the Dollar’s Reign Is Near an End.

Two words: Obama and Bernanke.

----------------------------------

That damn printing press!

Obama bamboozled millions... gave them the old 'okee doke.'

obama-ice-cream15-sm

13 posted on 03/01/2011 5:18:50 PM PST by BobP (The piss-stream media - Never to be watched again in my house)
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To: BobP

I haven’t seen any gallows humour more hilarious than that picture...


14 posted on 03/01/2011 5:45:11 PM PST by sinsofsolarempirefan
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To: SunkenCiv
Yeh, but to be fully honest, then, the data table should be extended to today.

If it were, we'd see that:

1. All the talk about the demise of the Euro after the Greek crisis scared the h-ll out of euro-holders. That fear is not going to subside soon.

So, please do tell a complete story.

15 posted on 03/01/2011 5:46:55 PM PST by TopQuark
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To: Brilliant
Two words: Obama and Bernanke.

What does Bernanke have to do with acts of Congress? Why don't you include Goldman Sacks, CEOs and bonuses as well?

16 posted on 03/01/2011 5:48:53 PM PST by TopQuark
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To: EBH

I call crap on this one.

America has been the leader of the free industrialized west for commerce and ideas. The language of business? English and dollars $$$$US$$$.

What is everyone going to do ? Learn Chinese? So we can duplicate everyone else’s ideas? EU...combined to compete with the US. Those ME jackasses who want to bomb us every opportunity? What have they created?

Global brainpower is in the US irrespective of what obama and his musli marxists want to try to tell us. That brainpower will still be there after Obama and his detractors passe like a stool in the night.

Over the last couple of hundred of years, we built the infrastructure ALL are envious of.

The best predicator of the future is the past.


17 posted on 03/01/2011 5:58:08 PM PST by himno hero
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To: allmost
Printing billions at a time...

Well, that's okay, so long as it's quantitative easing. /s

18 posted on 03/01/2011 6:00:51 PM PST by LjubivojeRadosavljevic
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To: himno hero

I once thought as you do, until Nov. of 2010.

What happened at that time...? Not the election results...

The bi-lateral trade agreement between Russia and China that dropped the dollar.


19 posted on 03/01/2011 6:09:14 PM PST by EBH ( Whether you eat your bread or see it vanish into a looter's stomach, is an absolute.)
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To: EBH
Why the Dollar's Reign Is Near an End

Here are ten of the main reasons, but there are plenty of others:


20 posted on 03/01/2011 6:23:35 PM PST by Iron Munro ("Our country's founders cherished liberty, not democracy." -- Ron Paul)
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