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Grim? Looks rosy to me,

Yes.

2012 is Obama's to lose, just like 1996 was GHW Bush's to lose.

People tend to resist change, unless there is a good reason. If Obama can decrease the unemployment numbers and show a modest improvement in the economy, and keep inflation relatively in check, he is a shoe-in.

Of course, it does depend on whom the GOP nominates. If they go with nearly any of the major and minor wannabees, they are going to see a repeat of 1996 and 2008.

Look at how Obama improved his numbers just during the lame-duck session. If he can repeat that in late October 2012, he can win against almost anyone the GOP puts up.

Incumbency is difficult to defeat. Remember JD Hayworth in the AZ Senate race?

Unless they intend 2012 as another throw-away year, the GOP needs to present a strong, bold, youthful candidate. Anyone old 'white'-haired guy ain't gonna do it for them.