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To: blackie; E.G.C.; Arrowhead1952; Allegra; Mrs.Nooseman; beachn4fun; Jet Jaguar; Jack Deth; ...



99 posted on 01/30/2011 4:58:32 AM PST by Kathy in Alaska (~ RIP Brian...heaven's gain...the Coast Guard lost a good one.~)
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To: Kathy in Alaska

Morning coffee bump


104 posted on 01/30/2011 5:11:47 AM PST by E.G.C.
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Here is the Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS in Norman just issued. Again it's in all caps.

POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF WIND... COLD AND WINTER PRECIP NOW APPEARS IMMINENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL BE ISSUING A PDS VERSION OF THE WSW BY 3 PM WHICH WILL EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THE REST OF WCENTRAL/SW OK AND OUR TX ZONES... UPGRADE CENTRAL AND NCENTRAL OK TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS... AND ADD A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR NW OK WHERE COMPUTED WIND CHILLS ARE -15 OR LESS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. PARTS OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY COULD NEED AN UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS LOOK OKAY FOR THE MOST PART BETWEEN NOW AND LATE MONDAY... ALTHOUGH PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL OK MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE WILL HANDLE THAT WITH AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE THE EMPHASIS AT THIS TIME IS ON GETTING EVERYONE TO TAKE PROPER STEPS NOW BY OBTAINING NECESSARY PROVISIONS... AND NOT PLANNING ON GOING ANYWHERE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT AS N-NE WINDS INCREASE AND COLD AIR GETS COLDER AND DEEPER. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY 00-06Z AND ESPECIALLY 06-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO FREEZING TO FROZEN SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAPID GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION... ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING SE PARTS OF AREA. LIMITED ICE ACCRETION WILL BE OFFSET BY STRONG WINDS... WHICH MAY BRING DOWN EVEN LIGHTLY-COATED TREES AND POWER LINES. FOCUS WILL BE LESS ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND MORE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PARALYZING WINTER STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING/DRIFTING ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. THAT BEING SAID... WE CURRENTLY PAINT A BROAD BAND OF 4-8 INCHES CENTERED ROUGHLY LAWTON-OKC-STILLWATER WITH 2-5 OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE BLOWING/DRIFTING... WE MAY NEVER REALLY KNOW. OBVIOUS ANALOG WOULD BE XMAS EVE 2009... AND FOR SOME AREAS THIS MAY BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THAT ONE.

SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE TUE BUT WIND AND BLOWING/DRIFTING TO CONTINUE AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS DROP FURTHER. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES CERTAINLY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS EVENT... OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS EXPANDED. THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST THAT MANY AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED IN YEARS.

STANDARD INITIALIZATION ROUTINE INVOKED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME LOW POPS EVENTUALLY FOR ANOTHER EVENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT FOCUS IS SQUARELY ON THE EARLY-WEEK EVENT.

124 posted on 01/30/2011 12:54:09 PM PST by E.G.C.
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To: Kathy in Alaska

Thanks Kathy!

{{HUGS}}


127 posted on 01/31/2011 12:56:05 PM PST by blackie (Be Well~Be Armed~Be Safe~Molon Labe!)
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