The thing I think the overly pessismistic are assuming too quickly is that the same kind of revolutions will necessarily take place in Saudi Arabia or any other nation with oil. As backward and badly governed as the oil rich arab nations are, just having the luxuries they have means that kind of revolution is highly unlikely. People there simply do not have as much to be angry about-for many arabs of the north, i.e. Egypt, Jordan, etc, the resentment towards the oil rich arabs of the south is probably a part of what is driving their furvor.
Even if we did have lose access to the Mid East, then there should be no reason why we cant just immediately amp up our own oil production (and maybe start looking to other energy sources, naturally a subject of debate) and use some of our reserves if we really need to. Worse case scenario should be brief periods where oil is not readily available in excess, and we cant afford to make fun of canadians anymore, followed by periods where we have our own oil.
You are clueless about the middle east.
I imagine the House of Saud has probably got a contengiency team (with Americans on it) on 24-7 by now.
Saudi has always been unstable. And violent.
/johnny
I work in oil and gas marketing. I am not a high-powered consultant type, but one thing I have noticed over the years is that the market reacts just as strongly to an EXPECTATION of a disruption of supply as it does to an actual disruption. I’ve told my wife to make sure she keeps her gas tank full.
you hit the nail on the head, however note that even in Saudi Arabia there is a lot of discontent — the Shias, Ismailis, Boras etc. are discriminated against heavily, their holy shrines have been bulldozed. And amongst the Sunnis, there are a lot of poor, because the wealth of that kingdom is treated as the personal wealth of the Saudi royal family (3000 princes and counting). Furthermore, the various arab tribes regard the house of SAud as usurpers from the Nejd region who went on to conquer Hejaz and the rest of the Arabian plateau. Civil unrest is highly likely — in fact it was happening until the British idiot, Lawrence of Arabia helped out before WWI
You assume this Regime wouldn't jump at the chance to enact it's "green jobs" energy (and social) revolution with $5+ gas? Never let a good crisis go to waste...