Posted on 01/28/2011 3:59:43 PM PST by Uncle Miltie
Israeli security experts are casting an uneasy eye at the civil unrest spreading through the region.
On Thursday, Yemen joined the list of Arab states experiencing unprecedented demonstrations calling for authoritarian leaders to step down, and Egypt braced for more civil unrest.
While no analysts here predict any immediate ramifications for Israel’s national security, some said mass protest movements that begin as pro-democracy uprisings could easily be hijacked by Islamists.
“We need to understand that we are living on a volcano,” said Maj.- Gen. (res.) Ya’acov Amidror, former head of the IDF’s Research and Assessment Directorate.
“Conditions can change from today until tomorrow. We must ask ourselves, what is the worst case scenario,” he said. “We are on thick ice, but even that melts eventually."
“Advice we have heard from certain countries in Western Europe [suggesting that the uprisings could lead to a wave of democratic revolutions] should not be followed,” he said. “There’s no immediate fear of any security escalation. The main question is: In the long term, will we be ready for all scenarios?” Maj.-Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland, a former national security adviser, and a senior research fellow at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said, “There’s a reasonable chance that if a revolution takes place in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood would rise to power. That would be bad not just for Israel but for all democracies.”
The true struggle in Egypt was not between “Mubarak and pro-democracy elements, but between Mubarak and the Muslim Brotherhood,” Eiland said.
Casting his eye on Lebanon, Giora said the recent confrontation between the pro-Western March 8 alliance and the Hizbullah-led March 14 bloc was not as severe as met the eye.
“It’s true that the two camps have been in a political confrontation that became sharper. But there is a clear interest for both sides to continue to cooperate – not only to prevent a civil war, but to enjoy the best of both worlds,” he said.
“So long as there is a unity government, then pro-Western camp can ask the West for economic and military aid, while pointing to democracy in Lebanon, a free economy, and a functioning parliament. The role of Hizbullah is to continue to be the most powerful military force in Lebanon, and to have strategic control,” Eiland said.
He believes that Israel is better off with a Lebanon formally controlled by Hizbullah, “because as soon as fire is opened at Israel, it’s not Hizbullah but the whole of the state of Lebanon that is responsible. That is a real deterrent, and it has plenty of advantages.
“The same is true of Hamas rule in Gaza,” Eiland said.
Shlomo Brom, director of the program on Israel-Palestinian relations at the INSS, said it was impossible to know what would happen next.
“It’s true that pro-democracy voices are being expressed – and that is positive – but we don’t know how it will end,” Brom said. Even in Tunisia, where the Islamists are weak, we don’t know how it will end. We can’t forget that in Iran, at the end of the 1970s, the uprising against the shah was led by [pro-democracy] youths who took the streets – but this was taken over by Islamists in the end"
Israel stands alone.
The real question is what can they do?
Ping
One authoritative book says they win...
I read many threads about Israel and the threats she faces and have always wondered this. If it appears that Israel is on the brink of being overrun by her enemies, do they have some kind of “last resort” or “scorched earth” plan of launching or detonating all her nukes and take as many of her enemies with?
Samson
Option
Look at what happened during the 6 day war. Got one word for ya, GOD.
yep, it’s called “the Samson option”
I have no doubt they could effectively repel any ground advance into their territories from either Syria or Egypt, or both. But, it's the missiles, especially from Iran, that present the greatest danger to Israel and its citizens. The long and short of it is, I wouldn't want to be visiting Tehren if the balloon really goes up - it's target #1.
Look up?
The L-RD G-d is waiting for Israel!
I’d speculate that they’re alread in place. No launch needed. Just a command.
Thanks for the info! I hope it never comes to that but if it does, hope some of those nukes are aimed at Mecca and Medina for starters.
Lock and load...keep the powder dry and move with force....quickly when the nitwits riot.
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
..................
What they can do, and all of the surrounding Arabs know it well, is take any conflict the Arabs care to start and go nuclear with it. The Arabs not only know that the Israelis can fry them like eggplants, they know that the Israelis will do it if pushed hard enough.
During the first Gulf War when Saddam was shooting Scuds at Israel, the only thing that kept Israel from creating an artificial sunrise over Baghdad was the United States. But Saddam Hussein knew perfectly well that as soon as the first chemical warhead landed in Tel Aviv, all bets would be off the Israelis would be unleashed and his Country would cease to exist.
God willing they can.
You're quite correct Mr. Eiland.
Israel needs some SSBNs lurking in the Indian Ocean all the time.
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