Posted on 01/21/2011 9:43:12 AM PST by SeekAndFind
The economy’s rebounding, his approval ratings are ticking up, and the GOP field is a mess. Mark McKinnon and Myra Adams on the president’s odds of a return ticket to the White House.
President Obama’s poll ratings are climbing. And the online prediction market Intrade has Obama at a 58.9 percent chance of winning a second term. Though November 2012 is light years away in political time, as Team Obama regroups in Chicago, they should be optimistic about their reelection prospects. Here are 12 reasons why:
1. Power of Incumbency
In the last 56 U.S. presidential elections, 31 have involved incumbents; 21 of those candidates have won more than one term. Based on these historical odds, Obama has a better-than-67-percent chance of winning reelection. In 2004, voters were not happy with the economy, the Iraq War or President Bush generally, and still he was reelected.
2. Love Story Continues
Though the mainstream media is now sometimes critical of President Obama, he has never faced the extreme 24-hour-a-day derangement that has plagued other recent presidents and potential candidates-to-be. This gentle treatment is worth millions to a campaign.
3. Billion-Dollar Campaign
According to Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post, President Obama’s 2012 reelection effort could be the first campaign to raise $1 billion. Not an unreasonable assumption because he raised $750 million in 2008. Look for the coming campaign to break all fundraising and spending records on both sides.
4. Experienced Campaign Organization
In 2008, the junior senator from Illinois assembled a team of outsiders that defeated the Clinton machine and won the presidency with 365 electoral votes to Sen. John McCain’s 173. With the same Chicago campaign team in place, Obama will benefit from experience and memory; mistakes won’t be repeated.
5. Obama’s Charm Offensive
Let’s face it, Obama knows how to turn it on and win crowds with his oratory. He is personally likable, has an attractive family, and his favorables are climbing. His Real Clear Politics average is at 49.9 percent. That’s comfortably within the zone of the last three presidents to win reelection. At 752 days into the first term, according to Gallup, President Reagan’s approval rating fell to 37 percent. Clinton’s was at 47 percent, and George W. Bush’s was 61 percent. If history is any guide, Obama has nothing to fear at this point from Mr. Gallup.
6. Economy is Improving
As the economy goes, so goes Obama's reelection prospects. Yes, this is a potential weakness, but there are signs of hope. And what is most important is not what voters think about the economy at this hour, but rather whether they think it is improving. The stock market is rising, and unemployment is trending downward, albeit too slowly. Consumer spending is up, and 40 percent of Americans say the economy will improve over the next year. The campaign theme may be: He brought us back from the brink.
7. They’ll Be Back
The 2010 midterm voters that swept Republicans into control of the U.S. House, governorships and state legislatures were older, whiter, and more conservative than those who went to the polls in 2008. Despite this “white flight” from the Democratic Party, young voters, more minorities, more women, and generally more liberals will be back in 2012. Though some of the liberal base may hold their nose, they’re not likely to desert the Democratic incumbent in November. And there is no doubt that Obama’s billion-dollar campaign fund will find some way to get his core constituents to the polls.
8. Obama, “The Moderate”
Forty percent of Americans now see the president as a moderate. That’s up 10 percentage points from a year ago. More importantly, 44 percent of independents now call Obama a moderate, up from 28 percent a year ago. If congressional Republicans are viewed as strident and over-reaching, Obama will be well positioned as a moderating force—with or without any Clintonian triangulation.
9. Republican Sparring Match
With no obvious frontrunner at this point, the Republican primary season may drag on and could be very messy. Tea Party support may be torn. And while Republicans debate which candidate is more Reaganesque, Obama will stay above the fray, looking presidential.
10. Neverending Campaign
Organizing for America never stopped working since 2008 and continuously sends targeted emails to its 13 million members. Supporters are asked to volunteer for service projects or call Congress to object to the vote on repealing health care. It’s the presidential campaign that never ended.
11. Hispanic Vote Growing
Obama earned 67 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2008 compared to McCain’s 31 percent. The Five State Voter Project, sponsored by The Hispanic Institute, is under way to increase Hispanic voter participation in five states: New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Colorado. Winning all of these states could seal the deal for Obama.
12. Several Paths to 270
There were five key red states that Obama won in 2008—Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina. Obama could lose every one of them in 2012 and still win reelection with 272 electoral votes.
While the election is eons away, the race at the moment is Obama’s to lose.
You mean Mark McKinnon of NoLabels, non-partison, best BO & McCain bud and twue Republican?
The chance of winning the Presidential campaign based on the birth certificate thing is about negative a billion percent.
The reason it's a non-starter are manifold:
1) To defeat Obama this time, a LOT of people that voted for him last time will need to vote for the Republican candidate this time.
2) The overwhelming majority of these people are Democrats and Independents.
3) The ONLY people that the birth certificate issue has any traction with are people that didn't vote for Obama last time, hate him, and have no intention of voting for him next time.
4) Ergo, it would be stupid for a Republican campaigner to focus on an issue that ONLY appeals to people that are already going to vote Republican anyway.
#12 has a bit of truth. However, only Colorado, New Mexico, or Nevada would have to come to their senses to defeat Obama. Wisconsin, and Iowa seem to be trending toward the red at the moment also. All bets are off if a RINO like Romney is nominated.
To defeat Obama this time...
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You assume Obama will run. All it takes is 1 state to mandate that all candidates running for office must simply show proof of eligibilty (long form).
That right there will defeat the Kenyan.
If a candidate actually did what you’re proposing, they’d lose to a bag of sand.
Obama knows this, Abercrombie does too and so do privacy rights advocates.
Abercrombie is playing some for fools. I ain't buying what he's selling.
yup, that’s how it’s done. No money from King Soros.
Is Abercrombie just dumb to go out and make the BC an issue without the hard evidence, or is he part of the Soros team, too, to cast doubt and our PINO?
One reason Obama won’t even run in 2012...
Multiple states will have laws on the books by then that require a candidate for POTUS and VPOTUS to PROVE THEY ARE U.S. CITIZENS and Obama CAN’T DO IT!
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