Posted on 12/12/2010 10:47:16 AM PST by Brian Kopp DPM
California contrail: Four conflicting eyewitness reports
One month after the KCBS video purporting to show a missile contrail off the coast of California went viral, a heated debate over what exactly created the contrail persists. Experts have offered convincing analysis supporting the theory that the contrail represents an SLBM launch, while internet pundits have assembled a formidable collection of evidence that the contrail was created by UPS flight 902. The debate is seemingly at an impasse, and it might be a good time to step back from the intense data analysis and review the basic facts of November 8, 2010.There are two known eyewitnesses who captured images of the contrail. Gil Leyvas is the helicopter camera man for KCBS in Los Angeles who videotaped the contrail and Rick Warren lives on Long Beach and photographed the contrail from his tenth story balcony. A 50 minute phone interview with Leyvas was obtained for this report and discussed further via email, and Warren was also contacted by email.
According to Leyvas, his video was obtained while filming a sunset view for a KCBS weather report. As he was filming, Leyvas noticed an object on the horizon that appeared to be climbing vertically out of the ocean, and he zoomed in on the object. He videotaped the contrail for a total of ten minutes and subsequently continued to view the contrail for an additional ten minutes. Leyvas maintains that the object itself that created the contrail only remained in view for two to three minutes. For 30 to 45 seconds, the object glowed brightly and then seemed to disappear from view. His initial impression was that the object was traveling east towards the coast. On reviewing the video later, he had the impression the object may instead have been heading away from the coast, towards the northwest.
The highly unusual appearance of the sunset contrail shown on TV and posted online, combined with Leyvas perception that the object creating the contrail only remained in view for two to three minutes, constitutes the primary basis upon which many observers believe the object was a Sub Launched Ballistic Missile.
Rick Warren wasnt sure what the object was that he was photographing on November 8th. I was shooting with a telephoto lens and looking through a viewfinder so I never really saw the separation of the object and the contrail until I looked at the photos, but Im sure that this whole thing lasted way too long to be a missile. I see lots of contrails from my 10th floor balcony but the difference in this one was that it seemed to be going up.
Having seen many contrails, what stood out for Warren was the vertical nature of the contrail, not that it looked like a missile exhaust plume. Some of his photos of the contrail were posted on the local ABC7 website, and were utilized by Mick West of Contrailscience.com to create a composite image of the flight progression of the object. The time stamps on Warrens photos were used to establish that the object creating the contrail remained in view for 4 minutes 43 seconds in Warrens photos. Based on altitude and position, the object first appeared in Leyvas video at least five minutes prior to Warrens photos. After seeing Wests analysis of the images, Warren says, Im now of the opinion that it was indeed a plane."
At this point, one of the most glaring discrepancies between these eyewitness accounts must be addressed. Most observers looking at Warrens images agree that the small dark object which appears at the top of each of his later photos is the same craft creating the plume that was seen in his earlier photos as well as that which was seen in Leyvas video.
If the object that created the contrail was still visible in Warrens photos, then the object itself is not likely to have been a missile. Solid fuel engines such as those used in an SLBM create an uninterrupted exhaust plume for two to three minutes, after which time the solid fuel is spent, and the missile is usually out of view.
On the other hand, when an airliner transitions from cold moist air to warmer drier air, the dew point changes and contrail formation decreases. In the case of USP902, the airliner would have been transitioning from moist cool air at altitude over the ocean to warmer, drier air over land. This could explain the contrail disappearing as the object moved farther east.
Mick West created a "chronological cut" of Leyvas video and posted it to YouTube. The transition from moist cool air over the ocean to warmer, drier air over land may have occurred at 1:17 to 1:20 of the chronological cut, which Warren referred to as the separation of the object and the contrail. When still images from Leyvas video are compared to the overlay of Warrens photos, there is a remarkable similarity and continuity between the two sets of images, providing a better time frame for Leyvas video within the context of Warrens time stamps:
When Leyvas was initially queried regarding these later photos, he replied,
the [Contrailscience composite] animation only shows the path the plume drifted and not anything in flight. The 30-45 seconds of video I captured in which I could see the object (the portion of the video showing the glow/flame of the object at its pinnacle) occurred 8-10 minutes prior to the animated images of the animation (if the time stamps are accurate). I have no way of telling if those time stamps are accurate since the raw video has no real-time time stamp associated with it. I can only go by an estimated time based on the time we launched out of John Wayne airport and the approximate time of our weather shot. My guess is that the time stamps are relatively close to the accurate time. However, what you are seeing in those images is the plume drifting and not anything in flight.
Leyvas still maintains the object creating the contrail is not visible in Warrens photos 8 to 10 minutes later:
The separate smaller trail that is separate from the main body of the plume and that was captured by Warren in his photos, which makes it seem as if the object continued in flight, appears in my video to possibly be the top portion of the plume that partly dissipates leaving a segment of the tip adrift - detached from the main body of the plume. (I highlight "possibly be" because during that portion of the video, I zoom in and out and pan off and back onto the plume, so I'm not sure if what we are seeing is a stage of separation like that of a missile or if it's the tip of the plume separating from the main portion). I did zoom into that portion to see if I could see a craft of some kind (at the time I thought that there was a chance the object was still making condensation/exhaust) but there was nothing there creating that segment. Had there been, I know I would have been able to see it with the high-powered lens I was using. Add to that - if it was traveling toward us, the closer it would come the easier it would be to see it, but there was nothing there. That's why I said it was merely the plume adrift and not anything continuously flying.
Though there was no time code associated with the raw footage I shot, you are still able to accurately time the footage from the moment I started the recording (as we departed John Wayne airport) to the final moments of the mystery missile story. When I play the video I can time the duration of the object in flight which was between 30-45 seconds of "Glow Time" - which is inclusive within, and at the end of the 2-3 minute estimated flight time from which the plume was visible at the horizon ... I can rely on the raw footage as it plays to gauge my estimated times since it plays back in real time on the player deck's control track timer.
There were also two unknown witnesses who captured images of the contrail, both anonymous posters on the image hosting website Flickr. A photographer on Hermosa Beach, north of Leyvas and Warren, uploaded a photo of the November 8 sunset and only subsequently realized he had captured the same contrail due to media reports. From his vantage point, without the setting sun directly back-lighting the contrail, it apparently appeared similar to the other contrails in his sunset photo.
Another anonymous photographer uploaded photos of clouds at sunset on November 8, and noticed a bright horizontal contrail that he subsequently associated with the media reports regarding the contrail. Notice that in the case of these latter two eyewitnesses, the first noted nothing unusual about the contrail until he read media reports about it, and the second viewed a horizontal, not vertical contrail.
Finally, the opinions of the known military experts must be taken into consideration. Several highly credible experts have stated their opinion that the contrail in question represented the launching of an SLBM.
A little further background from Leyvas might shed more light on the way the video was edited and presented to the public. Leyvas related that the video was taken during sweeps week in his TV market, and part of his job during sweeps week is to go out and look for and capture video of interest for sweeps week ratings. The video he captured of the contrail was subsequently heavily edited before being aired, and less than two minutes of the ten minutes of video has been seen by these experts. From the perspective of garnering sweeps week ratings, the footage was certainly successful.
It may be that the experts would modify their opinion based on viewing the entire footage. The footage is owned by the local CBS affiliate and nothing was found by the Department of Defense in reviewing the footage that would prevent its release to the public. According to Leyvas, it might still be available on their server. If that is the case, it should just be a matter of uploading the unedited ten minutes of video to YouTube to put an end to the debate.
MATTERS OF NATIONAL SECURITY
Mysterious missile launch baffles even eyewitnesses
Video, still photographers watched contrail soaring over Pacific Coast
In the bolded part he is speaking of Rick Warren's pics in contrailscience's animation. Obviously he isn't too sure of the fit with his video. But what he says about his video is very clear. As for that sat pic animation I have seen it numerous times and I still don't see any plume or contrail in it.
Not even an attempt to answer the question I asked. I’ll try again...what is the course of the object in the picture you provided. Any guesses?
“Oh, now you want 8 - 10 minutes...”
I think folks on both sides want 8-10 minites of video!! Seems like it would solve all the questions. C’mon KCBS!
Freegards
That's quite different from what I was being asked or what we were discussing though.
You mean those two cartoon pictures? It’s not clear there even is an object in those pictures. Further back on the thread it was argued that there isn’t. You sure like to waste time going in circles.
“I agree 100% that KCBS should release every second of tape they have uncut and unedited.”
I know.
“That’s quite different from what I was being asked or what we were discussing though.”
That is true, I didn’t mean it as applying to your point.
As someone who thinks it was a missile, why do you think we haven’t seen “the whole video”?
Freegards
You are either schizophrenic or suffering from extreme amnesia. Either way, I'm giving you credit for having a brain. Merry Christmas. And here is a link to your post where you introduced the "cartoon" picture as evidence in defense of your died-a-million-deaths-in-this-thread-alone theory. Your post #276
You stated you believe the object is moving sideways faster than it's moving foward. What course is it flying?
Delta 2 STSS Demo Rocket Launch - SpaceflightNews.net
This video doesn't show the contrail after the vehicle is gone for 8 - 10 minutes, as Leyvas put it, but it does show a few similar things.
It takes almost four minutes to fly out of sight. It begins with a very thick plume which diminishes to near invisibility even though it is under power the entire time. The audio picks up no sonic boom even though the cameraman is almost directly under it. The flame of the rocket motor is obscured much of the time. Its flight describes an arc even though it is being launched into orbit.
Yeah, sure.
And here is a link to your post where you introduced the "cartoon" picture as evidence in defense of your died-a-million-deaths-in-this-thread-alone theory. Your post #276
Neither schizophrenia nor amnesia explain your statement there. I posted that pic to show time stamps for the time the plume ceased and correlated that with the altitude of the plane as confirmed by FlightAware. Or "persistent" plume for those anal retentive types who make an issue of the distinction between that and the immediately dissipating plume later in the video. (Not you.)
Maybe amnesia would explain it if you don't recall now that that was the point I was making. It wasn't a theory it was a rebuttal of a theory with indisputable facts. Unless the time stamps on that monorail pic aren't factual. Or amnesia could explain why I don't recall that you ever addressed that point with an actual rebuttal other than "who said anything about altitude, dood?" :-)
As someone who thinks it's a missile I have no answer to that because the question bears no relation to my opinion on what it was. As an ordinary person and a FReeper I think it's because they can glean no further monetary gain by releasing it. Beyond that speculations on their motives become increasingly weak made by anyone who doesn't work at that station.
If what it was were relevant to their releasing it why would they hold it back if it clearly shows it to be an airplane? They went along with the airplane contrail theory after a few days like every other news station.
er...the initial sighting was reported as below...insinuating that the helicopter crew didn't know where they were in congested LAX airpspace in the days of GPS in all aircraft and constant contact with ATC?
Yep. Those who deceive knowingly (as opposed to those who those who are just gullible and vulnerable to flattery) do so by design to distract and obfuscate. As Justa-hairyape says, the only images that matter are those in the Leyvas video; the lighting conveys the information that the object was headed northwest.
Therefore, all of the hundreds of hours of manpower in assembling the hundreds of photos from other sources, the hundreds of configurations and calculations and overlays and gimmicks to "prove" it was from an eastbound airliner --
-- they're all just a carnival side-show.
I had never heard of chemtrails before this story came along. After finding out enough to know they were nutters I wondered who could be nuttier than they were. The answer was obvious. Someone who sets up a fancy website and devotes his life to debunk chemtrails. lol
[^) LOL!
Yes, it is amazing that they think a news photographer who has spent 11 years in the same city flying in the news chopper could have his directions so confused as to be off by an entire 90 degrees compass heading.
Hi old buddy!
WND has never been trustworthy as a news source.
The A/C didn't "separate from the plume". It passed from a long region of ice-crystal persistence into another air domain wherein the contrail still formed, (water droplets) but dissipated rapidly.
IMHO, Leyvas tries to be a good witness, but he apparently lacks the verbal facility to adequately describe what he saw.
~~~~~~~~
FYI, I have a graphic under construction showing that "detached" short, red 'plume' from the above video -- and an identical example from Warren's stills. They were obviously recording the same object at the same moment...
Please talk me out of the ‘spiral pattern’. No one has even tried yet. Commercial jets don’t fly in spiral patterns, so I suppose the earth spun in a spiral orbit just to humiliate WND. It’s Mother Earth seeking to conspire against religious conservatives to promote global warming? Why did the earth create this hoax?
World Net Daily fabricates ... ?
OK, where’s the WND hoax? They edited out something you wrote, and you had a hissy — is this slander or did they HONESTLY fabricate something? I read the article. Maybe you don’t like their slant. But they clearly portrayed controversy just as you wrote above. Commercial jets don’t fly in corkscrew patterns.
I don’t blame you for mistrusting CBS during Sweeps, but I’m basing “corkscrew pattern” on the image shown by Rick Warren, Mr. “Commercial Jet that Flies funny.”
WND is an amazing news site, and I’ll need more than your word that they FABRICATED something.
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