Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit. Photo: REUTERS
Posted on 12/07/2010 9:29:41 PM PST by SunkenCiv
Edited on 12/07/2010 9:50:04 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
Egypt's foreign minister said at the weekend the break-up of Sudan looked inevitable because northern and southern officials had made no real effort to keep the country united.
A referendum on independence for South Sudan, promised under a 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended decades of civil war, is set for January 11, but preparations are falling behind schedule.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessday.co.za ...
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit. Photo: REUTERS
what are the odds? Same guy:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2639000/posts?page=32#32
I blame Yoko.
LOL!
A government that turns its guns on its citizens has lost the right to govern those citizens.
Muslims killed Christians was "civil war" as media chooses to use pc terminology to describe mass murder at the hands of Muslims against Sudanese Christians from the South.
For one, the Southerners do NOT want to be part of the North anymore. The peoples in the South (mostly Black and Christian) have suffered unimaginable atrocities in the hands of the North.
Secondly, the North does not want the South to secede. Why? Several reasons, with the MOST important being that the South has almost 90% of Sudan's oil. Think of that. It is like Saudi Arabia having to give up over 80% of its oil revenues.
Thirdly, there is a very real risk for war between the North and the South. For obvious reasons.
Fourthly, add in the neighboring nations. Sudan is close to Kenya, and do you remember those T-72 tanks that were taken hostage by pirates some time back? Tanks that were supposed to have been owned by Kenya, even though Kenya uses British tanks? Well, they were allegedly going through Kenya to the Southern Sudanese. Several countries, especially Kenya (by far the most developed nation in East and Central Africa, and one of the leading in Africa) have interests in Southern Sudan. Kenya Airways flies daily to Juba (the capital of Southern Sudan), and every second business you find in Juba is Kenyan owned or connected in some way. A lot of money has been made there. Note that the entire East African region is coming together to form a country (it already has an economic union, and in a couple of years plans to be basically one nation). That would be enough to dissuade the North from doing something 'funny' (add the fact that the West would be supportive, and China - while a good friend to Northern Sudan, also has MAJOR interests in East Africa). The South has also benefited a LOT from Kenya, and if you look at the proposed flag of Southern Sudan it is basically the flag of Kenya with a blue triangle added.
Then, the other compounding issues stem from other potential problems for the North, in particular the Eastern Front (which is the Eastern part of the country that is also thinking about splitting off, and probably joining the South).
Anyways, it will be interesting to see what the North does. If it is a war between North and South then the North has a major advantage. If it is a war between the North, and the South plus East Africa (and the South has been given an opportunity to join the East African community), then the issue becomes much more insoluble for the North.
As for the US - Kenya has always been a key locus point for decades (and you can add a special relationship between Kenya and Israel to the mix). As for China - all it cares about is oil, and thus whether it is coming from Khartoum or from Juba it doesn't matter much, and there are other major interests in the East African region that China cannot afford to ignore (e.g. it is building major highways, including a 10-lane road in Kenya, in its usual bid to gain acceptance. There are major deals in the region, ranging from one of the fastest growing middle classes, to mineral wealth in Uganda and Tanzania).
The North may just have gotten bucked - raw and hard!
Mao’s best-known quote is probably “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun”. But he wasn’t finished, adding, “therefore the Party must command the gun, the gun must never command the Party.”
Of course, one thing is the other, so he needn’t have added it.
/bingo
South has 80 % of the oil, but the refineries are in North.
Serious problems, if that is so - serious instability. I am sure this comment by the Egyptians is not just a disinterested observation - they have vital security interests there.
That’s true, however Kenya has a refinery, and Uganda is building one (after the discovery of oil in Uganda). Furthermore, if China decides to support the Juba government over Khartoum, a refinery could pop up in the South faster than Alladin’s genie could utter abracadabra. Furthermore, the infrastructure to support the South has been put in place over the past couple of years (e.g. a road in Kenya heading north). All in all, it will be very interesting how Khartoum may take this. Imagine if someone in your household decided to leave with 80-90% of your revenue?
North and South have an agreement of splitting the money and I guess that they have some bribing safeguards in order to make it stick for a long time. But, what is “long time”?
Russia is trying to bribe their way into the two countries http://www.sudantribune.com/Russia-willing-to-assist-Sudan-in,37211 The Russian special envoy is Mikhail Margelov, who is the representative of Putin for Sudan (and part of the Silovikis being a former KGB instructor of Arabic) http://www.daylife.com/topic/Mikhail_Margelov
The Egyptians have another pretext to invade, because the Islamofascist jackoffs running/ruining Sudan threatened to cut off the Nile waters (and good luck with that) over Egyptian “Peace Canal” plans. The idea was for the canal to irrigate the Med coastline of the Sinai, as well as supplying water to El Arish and to Israel and Gaza. The plan has actually proceeded, with a freshwater conduit running under the Suez Canal and supplying the Sinai (but not Israel).
The open canal, running under the hot desert sun in a low-rainfall salty soil only loses 80 to 90 percent to evaporation. ;’)
Khartoum’s planes have just bombed the South.
The Animist/Pagans/Christians of the South want no part of the North’s Sharia State.
The North wants to keep the oil rich province of Abeyi, and that province gets to choose which country it wants.....Khartoum has created tribal friction in the area and has been sending settlers from the north into Abeyi to ensure that if the vote takes place, Abeyi joins the North.
Apparently our policy is a hands off one, no encouragement to the South or even telling the North to desist from it’s provocations, bombings, killings and generating mayhem.
Mr. Prinze of Xe was told to stop by the USG last year, IIRC, when he was in discussions with the South’s Generals about helping them in what seems to be a brewing war.
China has apparently disappointed Khartoum who expected her total support.
The Chinese are a presence in the South, and that coastal refinery is more than a pipe dream (according to the Economist) and would deal with the South, but being sensitive to sovereignity issues and their own seperatist areas, Xinjiang and less so now, Tibet, may end up playing ball with Khartoum.
But the recent air raids do not bode well.
China would be advantaged in having a source of oil which would not be vulnerable to Muslim-orchestrated shutoff.
Thanks swarthyguy! And of course, the Kenyan-born Muzzie in the White House will favor the Islamofascist regime in Sudan.
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