Why? Was the demand among the 75% of the population in the loyal states going to dry up? Was the south suddenly going to import and consume far more than it had before?
The people of the North were about to experience a major downfall.
Then it was self-defense.
It’s such a curious defense of position because it
1. Fails miserably to prove a case for “tyranny”, “abuse”, or even “taxation without representation” - all the minimum thresholds for legitimate rebellion.
2. It doesn’t matter. Imagine for just a moment the circumstances in 1860 where the population of the south were suddenly gone. Would that drag the remaining United States population into ruin? No. The remaining states were sufficiently self-sustaining that they would grieve for their cousins and keep on going.
The inverse could not be said for the south - at least in terms of 1860 societal orientation. The south being essentially an agrarian community relied on the north for much of their necessities. If the population of the north disappeared one morning in 1860 the south would be screwed.
Of course the scenario only fits when you look at the lay of the land in 1860. The tables have now turned and it is the south that is more self-sufficient than the original northern states.
[Bubba]: Why? Was the demand among the 75% of the population in the loyal states going to dry up?
Something sure dried up. Here's data on the change in the value of imports at the Port of New York (by far the largest port for imports) from 1860 to 1861 on a monthly basis. The source of the data that went into my calculation was the 1865 Appleton's. The war probably had an effect on imports, but surely the great boost in tariff rates of the Morrill Tariff did too. The Morrill Tariff went into effect May 1, 1861.
Month ... % change from 1860 to 1861
Jan ........ 23.5
Feb ...... -15.6
Mar ...... -22.8
Apr ...... -12.3
May ..... -11.5
Jun ....... -34.0
Jul ........ -40.0
Aug ..... -65.7
Sep ...... -55.1
Oct ...... -49.2
Nov ..... -37.5
Dec ..... -54.8
From the New York Herald of March 2, 1861:
The effect of these two tariffs [Morrill Tariff and the Confederate Tariff], then, upon our trade with the best, and most reliable part of the country will most disastrously be felt in all the Northern cities. We learn that even now some of the largest houses in the Southern trade in this city, who have not already failed, are preparing to wind up their affairs and abandon business entirely. The result of this as regards the value of property, rents, and real estate, can be readily seen. Within two months from this time it will probably be depreciated from twenty to forty percent.
You do not enter in war because of policy, but because of threat.
Secession threatened the viability of the Northern people, and that is why Lincoln began the war by sending warships to Ft. Sumter and Pennsacola.
Here is what few historians reveal to the public.
At the end of the decade of 1850, the exports from the United States were raw materials, foodstuffs, and manufactures that were surplus goods over and above the needs of the people.
Because of Federal laws that discouraged other methods of export, goods found their way to the shipping centers of the Northeast and were sent to the foreign countries that paid the most for the goods.
Upon analysis of Census and Customs data of the 1850s, it is clear that the export trade of the country, with regard to the origin of the exports, was three quarters of the whole of Southern origin.
Much of raw materials used in manufacturing was of Southern origin.
Specifically, in 1860, the total value of exports as measured at US Customs houses before shipment was $316 million. Items of Southern origin such as cotton, tobacco, rice, naval stores, sugar, molasses, hemp, wheat and other products, along with the value of the cotton used in Northern export manufactures comprised 72% of the export issue.
The manufactures of the North were a small proportion of US trade. Those companies had been operated under the protective system, avowedly because they could not compete with the English manufacturers in the US market, and therefore certainly could not in a European market.
The greatest increase in Northern manufacturing had taken place in cotton based goods, which had raw materials supplied in greater amounts due to increases in Southern production in the 1850s. The South afforded raw material for Northern manufacturing.
New England, where the unsatisfactory topography did not produce either the metals or other raw materials for durable goods, or the fields to produce grain for food, was especially vulnerable to change.
Improved transportation and the resulting competition from Western farmers caused farmers in the Northeast to reduce their production of grain and shift to dairy farming and truck gardening, both of which provided them with products to sell to city dwellers that would not face competition from Western farmers.
If secession occurred and faced without a market for their manufactures, the people had no source of raw materials for their employment, or payment for their food.