[Bubba]: Why? Was the demand among the 75% of the population in the loyal states going to dry up?
Something sure dried up. Here's data on the change in the value of imports at the Port of New York (by far the largest port for imports) from 1860 to 1861 on a monthly basis. The source of the data that went into my calculation was the 1865 Appleton's. The war probably had an effect on imports, but surely the great boost in tariff rates of the Morrill Tariff did too. The Morrill Tariff went into effect May 1, 1861.
Month ... % change from 1860 to 1861
Jan ........ 23.5
Feb ...... -15.6
Mar ...... -22.8
Apr ...... -12.3
May ..... -11.5
Jun ....... -34.0
Jul ........ -40.0
Aug ..... -65.7
Sep ...... -55.1
Oct ...... -49.2
Nov ..... -37.5
Dec ..... -54.8
From the New York Herald of March 2, 1861:
The effect of these two tariffs [Morrill Tariff and the Confederate Tariff], then, upon our trade with the best, and most reliable part of the country will most disastrously be felt in all the Northern cities. We learn that even now some of the largest houses in the Southern trade in this city, who have not already failed, are preparing to wind up their affairs and abandon business entirely. The result of this as regards the value of property, rents, and real estate, can be readily seen. Within two months from this time it will probably be depreciated from twenty to forty percent.
Taussig's "Tariff History" tells a different story. According to his numbers, the tariff revenues for FY 1862 (which would have started two months after the Morrill Tariff went into effect), were only slightly off those of FY 1860 (1860: $52.7 million, 1862: $46.5 million) and by FY 1863, they exceeded those antebellum. Even more telling, tariffs weren't reduced at the war's end, and yet in last half of the 1860s, tariff revenues shot up to triple or quadruple their pre-war levels. This at a time when, to hear your side tell things, the south was too beaten and impoverished to buy much of anything, imported or domestic.