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>>>The closest I have seen confuse the trade deficit or surplus with the tariff taxes. Prior to the war, by far the largest export item from the USA was raw cotton. But the US has never had any taxes on exports.<<<

Note that nearly all Southern congressmen opposed the tariff, and nearly all Northern congressmen supported it. That, in itself, should provide some insight into which region the tariff hurt or helped.

>>>I’ve never seen any real quantification.<<<

I posted the following link in an earlier post:
http://www.ashevilletribune.com/archives/censored-truths/Morrill%20Tariff.html

The following excerpts from that link provide additional insight:

“The Southern economy was largely agricultural and geared to exporting a large portion of its cotton and tobacco crops to Europe. In the 1850’s the South accounted for anywhere from 72 to 82% of U. S. exports. They were largely dependent, however, on Europe or the North for the manufactured goods needed for both agricultural production and consumer needs. Northern states received about 20% of the South’s agricultural production. The vast majority of export volume went to Europe. A protective tariff was then a substantial benefit to Northern manufacturing states, but meant considerable economic hardship for the agricultural South.”
. . .

“In May of 1860 the U. S. Congress passed the Morrill Tariff Bill (named for Republican Congressman and steel manufacturer, Justin S. Morrill of Vermont) raising the average tariff from about 15% to 37% with increases to 47% within three years. Although this was remarkably reminiscent of the Tariffs of Abomination which had led in 1832 to a constitutional crisis and threats of secession and armed force, the U. S. House of Representatives passed the Bill 105 to 64. Out of 40 Southern Congressmen only one Tennessee Congressman voted for it.

U. S. tariff revenues already fell disproportionately on the South, accounting for 87% of the total. While the tariff protected Northern industrial interests, it raised the cost of living and commerce in the South substantially. It also reduced the trade value of their agricultural exports to Europe. These combined to place a severe economic hardship on many Southern states. Even more galling was that 80% or more of these tax revenues were expended on Northern public works and industrial subsidies, thus further enriching the North at the expense of the South.”

The article states that Lincoln signed the tariff into law a few days after inauguration. But most sources state Buchanan signed it a couple of days prior to the inauguration (which I believe is correct). No matter. Both supported the tariff—Buchanan because it helped Pennsylvania.

The article states accurately that Lincoln campaigned for the Morrill Tariff, so his views were well known to the Southern states prior to his election.