[lonestar67]

I do think Delaware is relatively liberal.

I actually think Massachussetts is more liberal.

I do not think the Dems have a 13% participation advantage. I think the Dems are far less mobilized than 2008.

I think the Republicans are far more mobilized than 2008.

All of these things point to outcomes different than the assumptions of this poll.

[Moral Hazard]

“I do not think the Dems have a 13% participation advantage. I think the Dems are far less mobilized than 2008.”

I went to the Delaware elections website at: http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2008.html

I then created a spreadsheet (yes, I DO have too much time on my hands) and got this:

Votes Share Registered Share
Democrats 199095 0.48 279916 0.46
Republicans 127346 0.31 181858 0.3
Other 87121 0.21 140543 0.23
Total 413562 1 602317 1

The formatting seems messed up on “preview”, but anyway, in 2008 Democrats outnumbered Republicans among registered voters 45% to 30%, and among those who actually voted 48% to 31%.