Fon News Poll Generic Ballot

FOX News ^ | 10/29/2010 | Opinion Dynamics

[BigEdLB]

Polling was conducted by telephone October 26-28, 2010, in the evenings.
SNIP
Dem 37 - Rep 50 - Other 3 - Und 10

[lonestar67]

To put this in perspective, a Delaware poll alleging the Coons leads by 10 has this breakdown as its survey assumption for likely voters:

Republicans 32%
Democrats 45%
Independents 21%

Moreover, the Delaware poll concedes that conservatives are about 2% more likely to vote than liberals.

Does any of that seem at all plausible?

no.

It is rather unlikely the democrats will have a 13% advantage in Delaware and even that raises great questions about why Dems win by 10 with such an assumption on who is voting.

data from:
SurveyUSA Election Poll #17323
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2010/SUSA_DE_Sen_1013.pdf

[Moral Hazard]

“Does any of that seem at all plausible?”

You do realize you’re talking about a very liberal state whereas the Fox poll is about the nation as a whole? Based upon the margin that Obama won Deleware it is tied for the sixth most liberal state in the U.S.

As such: “Republicans 32%, Democrats 45%, Independents 21%” seems quite plausible to me. In fact by the estimate of FiveThirtyEight.com, there are 15 senate seats held by the Democrats that are more likely to go Republican than Deleware. Admittedly this isn’t just because the Democrats are dominating in the polls, but also because there are so many polls that the leads they show become more statistically significant.

[lonestar67]

I do think Delaware is relatively liberal.

I actually think Massachussetts is more liberal.

I do not think the Dems have a 13% participation advantage. I think the Dems are far less mobilized than 2008.

I think the Republicans are far more mobilized than 2008.

All of these things point to outcomes different than the assumptions of this poll.

[Moral Hazard]

“I do not think the Dems have a 13% participation advantage. I think the Dems are far less mobilized than 2008.”

I went to the Delaware elections website at: http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2008.html

I then created a spreadsheet (yes, I DO have too much time on my hands) and got this:

Votes Share Registered Share
Democrats 199095 0.48 279916 0.46
Republicans 127346 0.31 181858 0.3
Other 87121 0.21 140543 0.23
Total 413562 1 602317 1

The formatting seems messed up on “preview”, but anyway, in 2008 Democrats outnumbered Republicans among registered voters 45% to 30%, and among those who actually voted 48% to 31%.