[capt. norm]

Opal’s US landfall was on October 4. That’s three weeks earlier than Little Richard, and makes a world of difference this time of year in SSTs. I certainly understand your desire not to repeat the experience. We’ve all been there more than enough times.

I retired after 40-some odd years in the hurricane forecasting business, so I am aware of the SST trends.

You forgot the fact that Hurricane Kate hit the Panhandle on November 21st of 1985 roughly five weeks later than "Richard" and the water temp was 74 degrees which is cooler than it is now...and it didn't make a "world of difference" although I would have preferred it to do so.

We had a lot of people who simply could not believe a hurricane could hit that late... a few days before Thanksgiving.

[Romulus]

Far be it from me to challlenge anyone with your expertise, but Wikipedia does note that SSTs that November were exceptionally warm, with a persistent ridge over the SE states. It can and does happen, but I continue to believe we’ll have no major trouble this year.

No offense intended to your professionalism, but like most other life-long residents of New Orleans I’ve become accustomed to weighing the odds for myself.