Far be it from me to challlenge anyone with your expertise, but Wikipedia does note that SSTs that November were exceptionally warm, with a persistent ridge over the SE states. It can and does happen, but I continue to believe we’ll have no major trouble this year.
No offense intended to your professionalism, but like most other life-long residents of New Orleans I’ve become accustomed to weighing the odds for myself.
I don’t think it will amount to anything either, but I don’t want anyone to have any false hopes, thinking it couldn’t happen.