Posted on 10/19/2010 8:55:39 PM PDT by Justaham
Exactly two weeks until Election Day, Republicans remain poised to make significant midterm gains across the country, with 50 percent of likely voters preferring a GOP-controlled Congress, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
What's more, Republicans appear to be benefiting from the public's pessimistic mood, as approximately six in 10 registered voters think that the country is on the wrong track, and that the economy will get worse or stay the same in the next 12 months.
"Election Day is coming, the hurricane force has not diminished and it is going to hit the Democrats head on," said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
"It's hard to say that the Democrats are facing anything less than a Category 4 hurricane," Hart added.
But the poll also provides some silver linings for Democrats — including a slight uptick in economic confidence and in President Obama's standing — that could give the party some hope it can limit Republican gains in next month's elections.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
This is great, but I’m a bit concerned over the reports that Feingold has closed the gap. Anyone have a feel for what’s going on there?
Gaps are gonna close everywhere but most lefty’s who aren’t
hitting 50 before Nov 2 are gonna lose.
Talk about wishful thinking!
Make that a cat-5 hurricane.
They must be doing some fuzzy math to have Obama at 49%approval rating.
Gaps are gonna close everywhere but most lefty’s who aren’t
hitting 50 before Nov 2 are gonna lose.
Good point.
They must be doing some fuzzy math to have Obama at 49%approval rating.
0bama doesn’t have a 30% approval rating. Who in their right mind....never mind, those not in their right mind voted for the bastard.
Polls will get closer because those are phone interviews.
It’s the “enthusiasm gap” (actually getting out of the house and voting) that will be the difference on election day.
I am crossing my fingers for not another “Dewey defeats Truman” headline on Nov 3rd morning.
Encourage every one in your circle of friends and
relatives to be sure to vote! Polls do not win elections.
Turnout is the deciding factor.
I’ve been keeping track of various polls and articles about races and I come up with this total of democrat seats that should be won by Republicans assuming toss up races are swung Republican by the wave election.
Races in democrat districts won by McCain in ‘08 - 33
Races for Open democrat seats - 15
Races where there is an incumbent democrat - 33
Total pickups 81
The pick up seats I’m projecting are:
AL-2 AR-1 AR-2 AZ-1 AZ-5 AZ-8 CA-11 CA-20 CA-27 CO-3 CO-4 CO-7 CT-4 CT-5 FL-2 FL-8 FL-22 FL-24 GA-8 GA-9 IL-11 IL-14 IL-17 IN-3 IN-8 IN-9 KS-3 KY-3 KY-6 LA-3 MA-10 MD-1 MI-1 MI-7 MI-9 MI-15 MO-4 MS-1 MS-4 NC-2 NC-7 NC-8 NC-11 ND-AL NH-1 NH-2 NM-2 NV-3 NY-19 NY-20 NY-23 NY-29 OH-1 OH-6 OH-15 OH-16 OH-18 PA-7 PA-8 PA-10 PA-11 PA-12 SC-5 SD-AL TN-4 TN-6 TN-8 TX-17 TX-23 TX-29 VA-2 VA-5 VA-9 VA-11 WA-2 WA-3 WA-9 WI-3 WI-7 WI-8 WV-1
In addition there are 22 more seats where Republicans have a chance to win but haven’t been polled or are more than 3 points out.
The reachable but maybe unlikely seats are:
AZ-7 CA-51 GA-2 IA-3 ID-1 IL-8 MA-4 MN-1 MN-8 NJ-3 NY-1 NY-13 NY-22 NY-24 NY-25 OH-10 OH-13 OR-5 PA-12 RI-1 TX-27
On election night, if we start picking up some of those NY districts, it will be an indication of how big the wave will be.
Feel free to add or subtract districts if you have better info than I.
I’ve been thinking 60-65. but if you’re right and they pick up more than 80 it would be an epic gain that they could not spin (although they’ll try and the MSM will be complicit). I hope your right!!
Please explain to me what you are talking about and calculating here. You show Kansas R. pickup of three?
Kansas has 4 house seats. Three are now R.
Kansas now has 2 R. senators.
I am not a math wizard, but a pickup of 3 what? are you predicting?
I listed only one district in KS (KS-3), a democrat seat.
IN-3 is already Republican. And it should remain republican, but Mark Souder will be replaced by Marlin Stutzman.
Sure hope you are right about IN-8 and 9.
I am not saying it's wrong, because everyone expected it to close up in the final weeks, but I wouldn't bet the house on it either. If another poll like that comes out this week then we should be concerned, but with this poll having a 5% error rate, it could still be Johnson ahead by a lot.
Press release for this poll here:
http://wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=215171
They surveyed “...Adult Wisconsin Registered Likely Voters”
I have never seen such a description in a poll. It seems like they were trying to touch all the bases. Also appearing on this page is a Russ Feingold Ad.
Sort of tells you where they’re coming from.
Thank you, that is great news. I really appreciate an on-the-ground analysis from an FR “Broadband Journalist.” Living six months a year offshore, I rely almost exclusively on FR for my news and analysis.
Turnout, Not Polling, Will Determine 2010 Outcome
Jewish World Review | 10/13/10 | Dick Morris And Eileen McGann
FR Posted on Wednesday, October 13, 2010 by rhema
EXCERPT The danger here is not overconfidence but underconfidence, and that Democratic incumbents who could be defeated will skate to victories. Despite a massive victory in the offing for Republicans, there could be great gnashing of teeth when they see how narrowly some of the icons of the Democratic Party are re-elected.
While groups like Karl Rove's American Crossroads, Americans for Prosperity, 60+ and the National Republican Congressional Committee are pouring their resources into the same 60 districts, there are 40 more out there where they could pick up seats. These groups may just be adding to their margins in the 60 and ignoring the potential for victory in the other 40. I am working with superpacusa.com to focus on the outer 40, but few other groups are aimed at these targets.
Going after the more distant Democratic targets will also force the Democratic Party to pull its money out of the more marginal races as newly endangered — and very influential — Democrats start demanding help in fending off new GOP challenges. Already evidence indicates that some of the Democratic lions are in jeopardy.
South Carolina's John Spratt, chairman of the House Budget Committee and Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman John Dingell are both trailing their Republican challengers. Even House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Banking Committee Chairman Barney Frank might be within reach.
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