Make that a cat-5 hurricane.
I’ve been keeping track of various polls and articles about races and I come up with this total of democrat seats that should be won by Republicans assuming toss up races are swung Republican by the wave election.
Races in democrat districts won by McCain in ‘08 - 33
Races for Open democrat seats - 15
Races where there is an incumbent democrat - 33
Total pickups 81
The pick up seats I’m projecting are:
AL-2 AR-1 AR-2 AZ-1 AZ-5 AZ-8 CA-11 CA-20 CA-27 CO-3 CO-4 CO-7 CT-4 CT-5 FL-2 FL-8 FL-22 FL-24 GA-8 GA-9 IL-11 IL-14 IL-17 IN-3 IN-8 IN-9 KS-3 KY-3 KY-6 LA-3 MA-10 MD-1 MI-1 MI-7 MI-9 MI-15 MO-4 MS-1 MS-4 NC-2 NC-7 NC-8 NC-11 ND-AL NH-1 NH-2 NM-2 NV-3 NY-19 NY-20 NY-23 NY-29 OH-1 OH-6 OH-15 OH-16 OH-18 PA-7 PA-8 PA-10 PA-11 PA-12 SC-5 SD-AL TN-4 TN-6 TN-8 TX-17 TX-23 TX-29 VA-2 VA-5 VA-9 VA-11 WA-2 WA-3 WA-9 WI-3 WI-7 WI-8 WV-1
In addition there are 22 more seats where Republicans have a chance to win but haven’t been polled or are more than 3 points out.
The reachable but maybe unlikely seats are:
AZ-7 CA-51 GA-2 IA-3 ID-1 IL-8 MA-4 MN-1 MN-8 NJ-3 NY-1 NY-13 NY-22 NY-24 NY-25 OH-10 OH-13 OR-5 PA-12 RI-1 TX-27
On election night, if we start picking up some of those NY districts, it will be an indication of how big the wave will be.
Feel free to add or subtract districts if you have better info than I.