Good points, and all of your analyses are solid and interesting. One factor which would throw a lot of initiative back to the Democrats however, is if the GOP runs another cull. Specifically, Mitt Romney.
If 2012 was Romney v. Rodham, with social conservatives and black Democrats deciding it was a perfect day to stay home and watch the shadows lengthen . . .
Someone would win with a plurality of the vote.
I wholeheartedly agree.
There is only one person in the GOP who can make the Democrats throw in the towel, and that's Sarah Palin. No matter what anyone thinks of her, she is the 800 pound gorilla in the room, and the person with the greatest momentum and support going into the primaries. There's no one, including Romney, who even comes close to her standing on the national stage.
It's also been said by many observers that Michael Steele's strong validation and indication of support for Sarah at her October 13th Anaheim speech is strong evidence that the Republican party establishment has seen the light, and are now lining up behind Sarah for 2012.
It's become glaringly apparent to many, that all of the stars are aligned for Palin to capture the nomination, then go on to take the White House in 2012.
I honestly don't believe that the other hopefuls stand a chance, at this point. I'm pretty sure that the party insiders have read the Tea leaves, and have realized that they will lose the presidency again, if they DON'T run Sarah Palin.