Survey USA: Coons 54, O’Donnell 33

Hotair ^ | 10/13/2010 | Allahpundit

[WebFocus]

Worth flagging if only because this is the last comparison point we’ll have before tonight’s debate blockbuster. I’m searching for the silver lining in the crosstabs, but … help me out. The pollster’s reputable, the sample is enormous and limited to likely voters, and it’s right in the same range of all the other numbers we’ve been seeing lately — except a bit worse. (This is the first poll, I think, to put the margin at +20.) It was also taken over the last few days, which means the effect of her “I’m not a witch” ad is probably priced in. And it’s consistent with another trend we’ve seen in the Delaware polling, namely, that it’s women voters, not men, who are responsible for the bulk of Coons’s lead. Among men, O’Donnell trails here 49/41; among women, it’s 58/25. There’s a number worth crunching for Nate Silver or Mark Blumenthal or some other statistician with time on his hands today. Is there any wider gender gap in any race this year than the Delaware Senate battle?

The silver linings, I guess, are (a) she’s still sitting on a pile of money with which to fund ads, and of course (b) turnout. Two years ago, Biden crushed O’Donnell thanks to a partisan breakdown of 48D/31R/21I. Hopenchange fee-vah was high, so Democrats were motivated. Survey USA’s sample predicts turnout this year at 44D/30R/22I, which surely ain’t happening. There’s bound to be more Republicans in the pool this time with tea partiers enthusiastic and no Obama at the top of the ticket. The thing is, there’d have to be many, many, many more to dent a 15-20 point lead, especially since O’Donnell wins the GOP vote only by a relatively narrow 64/19 margin (Coons, by comparison, takes Democrats 81/10). So there’s your “what to expect” checklist for tonight’s debate — lots of talking points aimed at winning women and the centrist Republicans in Castle’s base. Castle himself could help in that regard, of course, but … he’s not going to. Quote:

Nine-term Delaware Rep. Mike Castle, who lost his state’s Senate GOP primary, said Wednesday that he won’t endorse a candidate in the general election…

“No, I’m not going to endorse anybody in that particular race, not because of the competence of any of the candidates, but because the primary I went through was very nasty in a variety of ways, both politically and personally, and I’ve just declined to get involved in that,” Castle told CNN’s John King in an interview to air Wednesday evening.

Translation: “I’m a sore loser.” At the very least, we’ve gotten some tasty Taiwanese animation out of this race. It’s mostly a goof on O’Donnell, but enjoy the salute to Harry Reid’s “pet” near the end. Open thread fo

[who knows what evil?]

...that it’s women voters, not men, who are responsible for the bulk of Coons’s lead...

Doesn't say much for Delaware women. Single guys: get out while you have the chance.

[Raycpa]

I believe that she doesn’t have to win to cause the Democrats problems. She just has to close the gap and it will cause enthusiasm for other GOP long shots and deflate the Democrats base voters and donors.

She has been painted as a far right wing nut as have many other GOP candidates. If she closes the gap then she looks less and less a nut and more and more mainstream and so will other GOP’ers. If the polls start to tighten as we get closer then there could be a wide spread enthusiasm wave that sweeps other elections.

She is sort of the place where the Democrats have created a fire wall. For the Democrats, its not just if she wins. Its how well she does in closing the gap in the coming weeks. This is why Obama had to campaign.

[3rdcoastislander]

As long as she does not bring up the whole witch issue she will be ok.

[who knows what evil?]

As a democrat; it looks like I can stay home on Election Day...my boy Coons has a twenty-point lead. Wonder what’s on television?

[The Cajun]

She has a chance to take this clown down tonight, I wish some Freepers would wait a little while before throwing in the towel.
I truly believe Coons support is not that deep and a good debate by O’Donnell could start his collapse.
Also OBummer and Slo-Joe coming in to campaign for Coons is really a good thing for O’Donnell if used right by her campaign. They should be tied around Coon's neck like an anchor.

[who knows what evil?]

Every time the Delaware Dufus; Joe Biden, casts a tie-breaking vote in the Senate; I will stick another pin into the knees of my Karl Rove voodoo doll. Maybe I’ll stick a couple into my Hannity doll as well; for continuing to give Tokyo face time.

[LibLieSlayer]

Three weeks out it was 18 points... two weeks out it was nine points... and rasmussen still had coakley to win the day before the election... he did not put out a poll that last week... but he told Hannity the afternoon before the election, that his numbers had not changed during that past week and he predicted Brown would lose. zogby was on at the same time and agreed. Both were wrong. My point is that nothing based on polling is certain and that is certainly the case with scott rasmussen.

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

I watched rove for three days after the primary. He attacked her viciously... he is a pos turncoat and he was also responsible for Bush NEVER defending himself... or those of us that supported him... and he was the author of Amnesty. Bush actually blamed rove to his face, for the 2006 mid term losses and he did it the next morning at his press conference. Check it out.

LLS

[Southnsoul]

No, he didn’t give her some “very good free advice,” he savaged her, PERSONALLY. Rove attacked her very character, insinuating she was a liar. And despite her addressing the controversies, countless times, he is still saying as recently as last week, that she needs to address them.

If she loses, he deserves blame, and will get it.

[SeattleBruce]

She’s got Coons right where she wants him - which is about the same deficit she held with Castle with about 3 weeks to go. No one, NO ONE expected her to even be close - if she’s within 10 - it will shock and if she wins, we’ll see Democrats committing suicide.

Anyhow the RINO Kastle is gone - victory.

[SeattleBruce]

We’ll see if CO can surge like Brown did.

[JSDude1]

She needs to CHANGE her strategy, something is obviously not working..!

[woofie]

If she loses.... then what? I think she goes on to be a celebrity commentator. probably on Fox. She will have her own radio show , soon a TV show and it will all be Roves fault.

The animosity expressed toward Rove reminds me of BDS...

Rove is paid to comment ....people ask for his opinion. Do you want him to lie ? if politics is as personal as you think we are all in trouble

[meyer]

It will be interesting how they will do both.

I'm going to bet (but not very much) that they'll drop the debate and carry on with the Chile coverage. It is interesting, and it will give them an escuse to avoid televising the verbal undressing of the commie in the race. They, like most of the mainstream media, don't want the people to see the coservative win.

[Carling]

So, you’re assuming that the GOP gives up on cloture votes?

Your post doesn’t make sense to me. If a bill gets to the point that Biden’s vote makes the difference, then it isn’t Delaware’s fault. It would mean that many in the GOP voted to end debate on that bill.

[woofie]

One more thing ...If a movie gets a bad review and then bombs is it the reviewers fault ? I think any review is better than none ....some movies with bad reviews will go to be successful .....some wont.

Its up to O’Donnell to prove Rove wrong

[Carling]

You defending a RINO like Rove, who worked on the Castle campaign, over the more conservative candidate tells me a lot about you, FRiend.

I bet you’re a big fan of amnesty for illegals as well.

[DouginSanDiego]

O’Donnell is behind for one reason: Karl Rove and his election night rant against his own candidate.

Thanks a lot, Rove.

If your party does not take the Senate you can look in the mirror and see exactly why.

[Mr Ramsbotham]

If you're in Delaware I'd stay put. Delaware tends to vote Democrat on account of the high concentration of Democrats in the urban areas around Wilmington, but the bulk of the state is conservative, and the state as a whole is run very conservatively in terms of taxes and regulation. I live in Kent County and pay less than $1,000 per year on a $200,000 house, and that includes both City of Dover and county taxes. There is no sales tax, and any politician who proposes one will probably be tarred and feathered, figuratively if not literally. Unemployment is around 8 percent. And the population is so small that politicians are very sensitive to the whims of the electorate. One vote in a state with twenty million inhabitants is nothing. A single vote in a state with less than a million inhabitants carries much more clout.

[woofie]

You stupid comment tells me a lot about you, FRiend.