Posted on 10/13/2010 1:43:04 PM PDT by WebFocus
Worth flagging if only because this is the last comparison point we’ll have before tonight’s debate blockbuster. I’m searching for the silver lining in the crosstabs, but … help me out. The pollster’s reputable, the sample is enormous and limited to likely voters, and it’s right in the same range of all the other numbers we’ve been seeing lately — except a bit worse. (This is the first poll, I think, to put the margin at +20.) It was also taken over the last few days, which means the effect of her “I’m not a witch” ad is probably priced in. And it’s consistent with another trend we’ve seen in the Delaware polling, namely, that it’s women voters, not men, who are responsible for the bulk of Coons’s lead. Among men, O’Donnell trails here 49/41; among women, it’s 58/25. There’s a number worth crunching for Nate Silver or Mark Blumenthal or some other statistician with time on his hands today. Is there any wider gender gap in any race this year than the Delaware Senate battle?
The silver linings, I guess, are (a) she’s still sitting on a pile of money with which to fund ads, and of course (b) turnout. Two years ago, Biden crushed O’Donnell thanks to a partisan breakdown of 48D/31R/21I. Hopenchange fee-vah was high, so Democrats were motivated. Survey USA’s sample predicts turnout this year at 44D/30R/22I, which surely ain’t happening. There’s bound to be more Republicans in the pool this time with tea partiers enthusiastic and no Obama at the top of the ticket. The thing is, there’d have to be many, many, many more to dent a 15-20 point lead, especially since O’Donnell wins the GOP vote only by a relatively narrow 64/19 margin (Coons, by comparison, takes Democrats 81/10). So there’s your “what to expect” checklist for tonight’s debate — lots of talking points aimed at winning women and the centrist Republicans in Castle’s base. Castle himself could help in that regard, of course, but … he’s not going to. Quote:
Nine-term Delaware Rep. Mike Castle, who lost his state’s Senate GOP primary, said Wednesday that he won’t endorse a candidate in the general election…
“No, I’m not going to endorse anybody in that particular race, not because of the competence of any of the candidates, but because the primary I went through was very nasty in a variety of ways, both politically and personally, and I’ve just declined to get involved in that,” Castle told CNN’s John King in an interview to air Wednesday evening.
Translation: “I’m a sore loser.” At the very least, we’ve gotten some tasty Taiwanese animation out of this race. It’s mostly a goof on O’Donnell, but enjoy the salute to Harry Reid’s “pet” near the end. Open thread fo
I will be praying for that to happen.
LLS
Hopefully,O’Donnell in Delaware and Dan Maes in Colorado will be a learning experience for the Tea Party.
Its simply not good enough to just be conservative. Its necessary to be conservative AND electable, and being electable takes a much larger skill set and personality set than simple being conservative.
And, fortunately, there are plenty of folks out there who meet these two requirements. However, like all other professions, experience is the primary teacher for developing political skills and honing personality traits: a skilled public person is generally made skilled by performing public activities. Simply plucking a random conservative off the streets doesnt usually work too well.
Thats why public people must work their way up the public ladder of success just like everyone else has to work their way up the experience ladder. A public person must start in small public venues and work their way to the next larger one. Along the way, their skills increase, and the greater scrutiny shakes out any fatal flaws along the way.
The military doesnt promote privates directly to generals for a reason, and neither should the Tea Party. The Tea Partiers have got to turn to those with proven records, or otherwise you end up promoting privates like the Christine ODonnells and the Dan Maes of the world who have not been sufficiently tempered under fire. These people may mean well and may be good people, but they have no proven record of leadership, and offer nothing to the electorate other than were not the other guy.
I will bet Rove contributed not a penny.
He did not give her free advice, he publicly and repeatedly attacked a fellow republican immediately after her primary victory.
Yeah Rove can take personal responsibility he obviously intended to do this.
I just sent the following email to Karl Rove: (he has answered other emails I have sent)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I have emailed you before and met you at your book signing .
I am now in the position of defending you from some rabid RWers who are mad that you criticized O’Donnell. You have moved in their eyes from a magnificent bastard to merely an ordinary bastard.
Here is the question ...
Have any of your groups supported O’Donnell monetarily?
If not why not?
Thanks so much
(Woofie)
>>>>>>>>>>>
If he answers I will let you know
it isn’t that she isn’t a reasonable candidate it is that she ISN’T going to win.
Exactly brother.
"You" stupid comment. Mmmkay. Say hello to Karl Rove for me, will you?
The entire State should be nuked from space. It's the only way to be sure...
I stand by my previous statement.
The hatred of North was even more palatable than for O’Donnell—they were convinced North was a criminal.
O’Donnell is a serious person, too—young, perhaps, but serious enough to want to be a real person in the arena of ideas.
Is she a professional politician (like Castle)? Nope. Not by a long shot. Is she GENUINE? You betcha.
Coons did himself no favors in that debate and may even have hurt his own chances.
I hope you’re right. O’Donnell ought to just put her head down and keep talking to the people of her state.
I hope you’re right. O’Donnell ought to just put her head down and keep talking to the people of her state.
Thanks, let me know.
You’re right, I failed to add an “ r” to “you” to make it a possessive pronoun.
And why did I make that stupid mistake?
Because I foolishly lifted it directly from your comment to me before I “doctored it”
Your comment: “You defending a RINO like Rove.....”
Perhaps you should have used the possessive pronoun yourself
Here is what Karl says so far:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Thank you for contacting Karl Rove. If your inquiry requires a response, we will be in touch as soon as possible.
I hope you’ll join me as I work to bring the discussion on limited government and free market principles to my various platforms and different audiences. If you’re interested, please visit www.Rove.com to signup for my weekly email. These emails usually include my media schedule, weekly Wall Street Journal op-eds, my analysis of recent polling trends and some recommended reading that I would like to pass on to you.
Thanks again.
Karl Rove (@karlrove if you Tweet)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I guess if I felt like I really needed to hate some people, Karl Rove would be at the bottom of my list.
I wanted to puke when Hannity announced he would have that pig Rove on the show today, calling him the “architect.” Architect of what? Two Democrat landslides? What a Judas that bum is.
Agreed. If they prefer socialism, carpet bomb em’.
Rove isn’t a movie reviewer.
On the night of her brilliant victory that should have launched the general campaign of the Republican senate nominee for Delaware, the most prominent republican face of the non candidate portion of the GOP went on a rampage to destroy all of her momentum, and he kept it up for days, until he had totally erased her victory night triumph and momentum and reversed the national coverage.
Karl Rove wasn’t alone, the NRSC rejected her the night of her victory, then Castle would not endorse her, and today, the day of her last big shot in the debate, Castle announces that he will not endorse her because he was treated badly during the primary.
The left side of the GOP has fought her tooth and nail.
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