The Ohio demographics have changed and I don’t think this article fully accounts for it.
Kasich will curb-stomp STrickland in Central Ohio. Usually Columbus is a democrat town but Kasich will do much better than average there.
Kasich leading in the independent likely voters means he’s also doing well with the very people that voted Strickland into office over KEn Blackwell - and that’s the very bloc that abandoned the GOP (if not in party affiliation then in voting) after the Bubba Bob Taft regime.
Strickland is relatively conservative when compared to most Ohio Democrats, but his base is even less motivated than the Ohio conservatives allegedly are....
I think Kasich will win by about 8 to 12 pts, but he could have done better.
He was a good Congressman but isn’t the kind of guy who “excites” people. He’ll be a good Governor for Ohio, but his campaigning style leaves a bit to be desired.
In most all polls Strickland has been stuck in the 42 to 43% range. I’m not sure what the whole NR article is all about. Kasich is the challenger and he is leading in all recent polls, but he has lost his 17 point advantage from one earlier poll, and that makes for a story?
2 things -
1. hard for Kasich to run as an “outsider” - anti-Washington.
2. Polls are full of crap. He will win by 10+.
Here is my poll methd -
Take last result. Deduct 7.5% from Dem. Add 7.5% for Rep. Throw a few points one way or the other if one candidate is particularly good or bad. Mix.
Any Dem who didn’t win previously by 10% is toast. They need 20% prior margin to be safe.
I personally have yet to hear of one person here in Ohio who is voting for Strickland.Usually his name is proceeded by d@med or some other sort of adjective along those lines.