[Eldon Tyrell]

2 things -

1. hard for Kasich to run as an “outsider” - anti-Washington.

2. Polls are full of crap. He will win by 10+.

Here is my poll methd -

Take last result. Deduct 7.5% from Dem. Add 7.5% for Rep. Throw a few points one way or the other if one candidate is particularly good or bad. Mix.

Any Dem who didn’t win previously by 10% is toast. They need 20% prior margin to be safe.

[Comparative Advantage]

I imagine that the Strickland campaign has been somewhat effective in portraying Kasich as a Wall St insider with all of the advertising they have done.

[wardaddy]

Polls are full of crap

actually they are not wrong very often, that is a canard or myth and many here believe it and we argue it the whole way through every election

what does happen though is that polls can lag and the last poll if taken say 1-2 weeks prior to election can be off a good bit on election day or outlier biased polls which oversample Dems as a known percentage can be off a bit....ABC and the network/WashPo polls used to do this

but the days like Truman-Dewey are over....Rassmussen, Zogby, Gallup, etc...the professionals...they will all be with the margin or close

I pinged our resident pitbull and poll poster

[SeekAndFind]

RE: hard for Kasich to run as an “outsider” - anti-Washington.

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The thing about Kasich is he’s been everywhere.

He was a long time Congressman, then a media personality, then an Investment Banker.

Anyone can find fault with his background as long as his background is unpopular with a certain group.

Anti-Washington ? He’s a Washington insider.

Greedy Investment Banker who helped cause the financial crisis? He was a tio ranked manager at Lehman Brothers...

You just can’t satisfy everyone.