Posted on 09/09/2010 5:24:50 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
The main knock, in fact the only legitimate knock, on Christine O'Donnell as the GOP nominee in Delaware is that she cannot win in the November election. Delaware is a blue state, and Christine O'Donnell is very conservative. Delaware's senior Senator was, after all, Joe Biden. Surely no conservative could hope to capture the "Biden seat". Well, could they?
If history provides any clues (and it usually does) Christine O'Donnell stands an excellent chance of winning this seat in November. There are two reasons why her electoral prospects are sunnier than one might suppose, given Delaware's recent voting patterns.
First,and foremost: 2010 is by all measures shaping up to be a "wave election", perhaps the mother of all "wave" elections. In a wave election, not a few candidates win where they should not win and still others lose where one would not suppose they would. In modern times, we have seen two gigantic wave elections, in 1980(Reagan) and 1994 (the GOP takeover of Congress after a 40 year hiatus), a slightly smaller one in 1974 (Watergate)and miniwaves in 1986 and 2006 (the last cycle of two term Presidents).
To illustrate the power of back to back wave elections both to give and to take away, consider 1974 and 1980. In 1974, the Democrats added only three Senate Seats to their total of 59. But may of their endangered liberal incumbents in Red States survived, including George McGovern, who had lost South Dakota in 1972 to Richard Nixon by 10 points but won reelection comfortably by 6. Frank Church, the liberal from deeply red Idaho, won reelection by 14 points in the 1974 wave. And Birch Bayh of Indiana won reelection by 5 in deep red Indiana. In 1980, however, spurred on by Reagan's onslaught, the wave flowed in the opposite direction. McGovern lost by 19 to Jim Abdnor. The liberal Church (aided by incumbency) was edged by only 1 point by Steve Symms, and Birch Bayh lost by 6 to Dan Quayle. And GOP Senators who had barely won( by less than a point) in 1974 (such as Dole in red Kansas and Laxalt in red Nevada)won by 26 and 21 respectively. Liberals Gaylord Nelson (in blue Wisconsin) and Warren Magnuson (in blue Washington) who both won in 1974 with over 60% were defeated by first time GOP candidates.
Similarly, in the miniwave election of 1986, many of the first time winners in 1980, even in red states, were swept out by far more liberal candidates, including Paula Hawkins in Florida (to Bob Graham); Mack Mattingly in Georgia (to liberal Wyche Fowler); Jim Abdnor in South Dakota (to liberal Tom Daschle). Patrick Leahy who hung on by the skin of his teeth in 1980 49.8% to 48.5%, crushed a former governor by 30 points in 1986.
There are even more recent examples. In 1994, conservative, Federalist Society founder Spencer Abraham won in deep blue Michigan as did social conservative icon Rich Santorum in blue Pennsylvania.
The second dynamic which favors an O'Donnell upset is the absence of an incumbent. Incumbent Democrats in Blue states and Incumbent Republicans in Red States can frequently stand against the headwind of a wave election. As pointed out above, Dole and Laxalt survived in 1974; Leahy in 1980. All three romped the next time they faced a favorable wave. If Christine O'Donnell is the nominee, she will be further assisted by the lack of a really stellar opponent. The Democrats had effectively conceded the race to Mike Castle and Beau Biden had stood down, waiting for a much surer bet in 2014, when Castle would retire. Chris Coons was a sacrificial lamb, and an O'Donnell nomination will catch the Democrats flatfooted with an untested candidate who has never run statewide and who is a hard leftist with Marxist sympathies that may not go over so well in corporation friendly Delaware:
Coons took 'bearded Marxist' turn
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/36726.html
My point is that, with the approach of a wave election of historic proportions and the absence of a marquee challenger, much less an incumbent, the stars are beginning to align for Christine O'Donnell. O'Donnell is well positioned to win the Senate seat that is, as I write this, slipping from the grasp of Mike Castle.
Last month O’Donnel was leading Coons by 2pts.
“who agrees with me 70 percent of the time”
Let see.
Supports Obamacare.
Supports Crap and Trade.
Supports gay marriage
Supports abortion.
And you say you agree with him 70 percent of the time? I’m not seeing how he’s any different than San Fran Nan.
Then those sensible Republicans don't have much sense.
NRA-PVF Endorses Christine O’Donnell for U.S. Senate in Delaware’s Republican Primary
http://www.nrapvf.org/news/Read.aspx?ID=14227&T=1
The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) is endorsing Christine O’Donnell for election to the U.S. Senate in Delaware’s September 14th Republican primary.
“We can count on Christine O’Donnell to defend the Second Amendment freedoms of Delaware’s law-abiding gun owners, hunters and sportsmen.”
Christine O’Donnell’s commitment to preserving the Second Amendment has earned her an “AQ” rating and endorsement from the NRA-PVF.
More great news from the First State. COD is going to make Castle DOA on September 14.
I don’t buy that Castle beats Coons easily. Castle’s perception of popularity is based on never facing a tough opponent. He became governor on DuPont’s success and popularity. He became Representative by basically switching off with Carper after his second term as Governor. He avoided running for the Senate until an open seat appeared. It’s easy to seem popular in a state where incumbency has been a huge advantage (especially cost wise) for so long.
In a year favoring anti-govt. conservatives and challengers, Castle would face Coons as the virtual incumbent (especially to casual voters) and he’s just managed to tick of the committed conservative voters with this idiotic primary campaign.
Heck, if the GOP takes the Congress, Coons could do less damage to my pocketbook as a Senator than if he continues to run New Castle County — property taxes bite me more than FIT at the moment. And I don’t trust Castle to stick with the GOP if the Senate is tied. He’s old enough that he could make a deal to step aside for Beau Biden in four years. Which would fit the incestuous nature of DE politics.
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