Why Christine O'Donnell CAN win this November (Wave Election+Open Seat)

The main knock, in fact the only legitimate knock, on Christine O'Donnell as the GOP nominee in Delaware is that she cannot win in the November election. Delaware is a blue state, and Christine O'Donnell is very conservative. Delaware's senior Senator was, after all, Joe Biden. Surely no conservative could hope to capture the "Biden seat". Well, could they?

If history provides any clues (and it usually does) Christine O'Donnell stands an excellent chance of winning this seat in November. There are two reasons why her electoral prospects are sunnier than one might suppose, given Delaware's recent voting patterns.

First,and foremost: 2010 is by all measures shaping up to be a "wave election", perhaps the mother of all "wave" elections. In a wave election, not a few candidates win where they should not win and still others lose where one would not suppose they would. In modern times, we have seen two gigantic wave elections, in 1980(Reagan) and 1994 (the GOP takeover of Congress after a 40 year hiatus), a slightly smaller one in 1974 (Watergate)and miniwaves in 1986 and 2006 (the last cycle of two term Presidents).

To illustrate the power of back to back wave elections both to give and to take away, consider 1974 and 1980. In 1974, the Democrats added only three Senate Seats to their total of 59. But may of their endangered liberal incumbents in Red States survived, including George McGovern, who had lost South Dakota in 1972 to Richard Nixon by 10 points but won reelection comfortably by 6. Frank Church, the liberal from deeply red Idaho, won reelection by 14 points in the 1974 wave. And Birch Bayh of Indiana won reelection by 5 in deep red Indiana. In 1980, however, spurred on by Reagan's onslaught, the wave flowed in the opposite direction. McGovern lost by 19 to Jim Abdnor. The liberal Church (aided by incumbency) was edged by only 1 point by Steve Symms, and Birch Bayh lost by 6 to Dan Quayle. And GOP Senators who had barely won( by less than a point) in 1974 (such as Dole in red Kansas and Laxalt in red Nevada)won by 26 and 21 respectively. Liberals Gaylord Nelson (in blue Wisconsin) and Warren Magnuson (in blue Washington) who both won in 1974 with over 60% were defeated by first time GOP candidates.

Similarly, in the miniwave election of 1986, many of the first time winners in 1980, even in red states, were swept out by far more liberal candidates, including Paula Hawkins in Florida (to Bob Graham); Mack Mattingly in Georgia (to liberal Wyche Fowler); Jim Abdnor in South Dakota (to liberal Tom Daschle). Patrick Leahy who hung on by the skin of his teeth in 1980 49.8% to 48.5%, crushed a former governor by 30 points in 1986.

There are even more recent examples. In 1994, conservative, Federalist Society founder Spencer Abraham won in deep blue Michigan as did social conservative icon Rich Santorum in blue Pennsylvania.

The second dynamic which favors an O'Donnell upset is the absence of an incumbent. Incumbent Democrats in Blue states and Incumbent Republicans in Red States can frequently stand against the headwind of a wave election. As pointed out above, Dole and Laxalt survived in 1974; Leahy in 1980. All three romped the next time they faced a favorable wave. If Christine O'Donnell is the nominee, she will be further assisted by the lack of a really stellar opponent. The Democrats had effectively conceded the race to Mike Castle and Beau Biden had stood down, waiting for a much surer bet in 2014, when Castle would retire. Chris Coons was a sacrificial lamb, and an O'Donnell nomination will catch the Democrats flatfooted with an untested candidate who has never run statewide and who is a hard leftist with Marxist sympathies that may not go over so well in corporation friendly Delaware:

My point is that, with the approach of a wave election of historic proportions and the absence of a marquee challenger, much less an incumbent, the stars are beginning to align for Christine O'Donnell. O'Donnell is well positioned to win the Senate seat that is, as I write this, slipping from the grasp of Mike Castle.

“O’Donnell cannot win in Delaware. Period.”

The list is endless. It is less important WHERE you run than WHEN you run. Address the Vanity on the merits. I have given you umpteen exapmles of Dems winning in Red States and GOPers winning in deep blue states. If incumbents in deep blue California and Washington are behind, then how can you say that a challenger in Delaware (which is certainly less blue than California and Washington) is a sure thing? That is Castle’s talking point but it can’t stand scrutiny.

Reagan won Delaware twice vby larege margins.

I used to think that we needed to vote for the candidate with the best chance who was closest to our philosophy.

Now I think that it’s time to work for the most conservative candidate in every election. If it’s time for this nation to get back as close as we can to our founding principals and a “nation under God” then God will help us.

It’s time to vote the most conservative candidate running and if it’s God’s will that candidate will win with His help.

Sure. Spencer Abraham couldn’t win in Michigan. And how did Santorum win two terms in PA which is more liberal than Delaware? How in the world did a leftist like Tom Daschle win in SD over and over?The list is endless. It is less important WHERE you run than WHEN you run. Address the Vanity on the merits. I have given you umpteen exapmles of Dems winning in Red States and GOPers winning in deep blue states. If incumbents in deep blue California and Washington are behind, then how can you say that a challenger in Delaware (which is certainly less blue than California and Washington) is a sure thing? That is Castle’s talking point but it can’t stand scrutiny. Reagan won Delaware twice vby larege margins.

1. O'Donnell isn't Reagan.

2. Michigan and Pennsylvania are MUCH more Conservative than Delaware. Asserting otherwise is absolutely laughable. Delaware is one of the most liberal States in the entire nation. Pennsylvania and Michigan are actually quite socially conservative.

3. Incumbents in Washington and California are behind because they are running against very well funded, extremely competent candidates, who are a much closer ideological match for the respective States.

4. Can you show any evidence whatsoever that O'Donnell can win in Delaware, especially when we take into account that she has done nothing but crash and burn in her prior runs for office, that she has ethical baggage and that she has been caught in a number of blatant lies.

Of course O’Donnell can win the general. I can also encounter the Virgin Mary tomorrow. Or win the lottery. Life is full of surprises.

Every sensible Republican that I know in DE is proudly voting for Castle on Tuesday and again in November. Castle can easily nail down this Senate seat for the GOP - an immediate +1 pickup. Per NRO and my own experience, Castle is very good on fiscal issues, is a spending and deficit hawk, and is exceptional on foreign policy and defense issues. Castle voted AGAINST the Obama stimulus. Castle voted AGAINST Obamacare. Castle FAVORS making the Bush tax cuts permanent and freezing or cutting federal spending.

Yes, Castle cast a HORRIBLE vote for cap and trade. So be it. He has been wrong on various environmental issues for years.

As was seen last December over the health care battle, not one RINO caved under enormous pressure from Reid and the MSM. Snowe, Collins, every Republican stayed in camp. By contrast, all the so-called conservative RATS caved.

I will take a sure-thing electable Republican who agrees with me 70 percent of the time over a Democrat who agrees with me zero percent of the time every day of the week. Castle will also provide critical down-ballot coattails in November, including the critical State legislative races + State Treasurer, where a true conservative has a good shot - Colin Bonini.

Fortunately, the Castle machine is primed for battle and will bury O’Donnell on Tuesday.

If hard core freepers don’t agree, so be it. We’ll agree on many other matters in the days to come.

>>>Only Tea Party movement supporting her is the Tea Party Express <<<

PhiKapMom is full of HotAir!

EVERY Tea Party group in Delaware is supporting her - however they never ‘endorse’ anyone!

Some Tea Party groups do endorse candidates - There are a whole bunch - like Independence Mall, and many others from out of state - Saw one endorsement from a group in South Carolina...

Anyone who thinks that the Palin endorsement won’t matter is delusional!

She obviously has missed the ABC masses (Anybody But Castle) thousands will NOT vote for him if nominated!

(There IS a Libertarian in the race) A message is being sent - is the Republican party smart enough to listen?)

Go Christine!

“Can you show any evidence whatsoever that O’Donnell can win in Delaware, especially when we take into account that she has done nothing but crash and burn in her prior runs for office, that she has ethical baggage and that she has been caught in a number of blatant lies.”

O’Donnell isn’t Reagan? Who knew? Mind if I quote you?

You really like Mike Castle don’t you? Enough to go on this site and smear Christine O’Donnell. Let me tell you something. Castle is going to lose. FR is not fertile ground for his kind of leftist in any case.

Sarah Palin’s endorsement means he is going to lose. In fact he was losing even before it. But he is going to lose now. You may as well pack up your traveling medicine show and go elsewhere.

“Fortunately, the Castle machine is primed for battle and will bury O’Donnell on Tuesday.”

The Murkowski machine and the GOP in AL were primed for battle too. And they had held the Senate Seat in Alaska even longer than castle has been in Congress.

I didn’t gloat at some of the Freepers here who predicted that Murk would crush Miller. But I am going to remind you how wrong you are in making this prediction. The Delaware Freepers here, including MLF, Delawhere and De Conservative are saying just what the AK freepers were saying before Miller shocked the world. I trust ther view of matters on te ground more than you and your “sensible” Republicans. Are these the Repubs who oppose the 2nd Amendment and support cap nd tax and tax fund ed abortion and don’t want to repeal Obamacare like Castle?

Murkowski stupidly got on the wrong side of an abortion issue just weeks b4 her primary. No such ballot initiative exists in DE next week.

Suit yourself and argue with me all you like. I respect your opinion but I do not agree with it.

Every moment you waste time on this and other threads means that you are not knocking doors or working phone banks for O’Donnell.

You really like Mike Castle don’t you?

No, I actually don't. However, pragmatically accept that he's as good as we can get in the cesspool that is Delaware.

Enough to go on this site and smear Christine O’Donnell. Let me tell you something. Castle is going to lose.

She smears herself with her blatant lies and her ethical baggage. She did that to herself.

FR is not fertile ground for his kind of leftist in any case.

Ok.

Sarah Palin’s endorsement means he is going to lose.

Oh, of course. She can do no wrong, right?

In fact he was losing even before it.

The polls say otherwise.

But he is going to lose now. You may as well pack up your traveling medicine show and go elsewhere.

So do you want to silence dissent? How liberal of you.

“Murkowski stupidly got on the wrong side of an abortion issue just weeks b4 her primary. No such ballot initiative exists in DE next week.”Every moment you waste time on this and other threads means that you are not knocking doors or working phone banks for O’Donnell.”

If she had been as far ahead as was assumed and confidently predicted, no abortion initiative could have taken her out. People weren’t even predicting a close race.

Bear this in mind on Castle. He hasn’t had a contested GOP primary since his first run for Congress 18 years ago. and that was before his left wing voting record. He doesn’t want to defend his record and has resorted to smearing O’Donnell instead.

“Every moment you waste time on this and other threads means that you are not knocking doors or working phone banks for O’Donnell.”

I hpe I am not wasting my time, and I don’t think I am. If there is historical evidence that a conservative such as O’Donnell can win in a blue state in a “red wave” year (and there is), I think it helps to post it so that people realize that she can win.

Anyway, I respect your opinion too. You have tried to promote Castle by pointing out some positives. Others have just tried to tear O’Donnell down, which is counterproductive. It does not win Castle votes and it potentially damages O’Donnell. If she is the nominee, i know all freepers will wish her well in the General.

I notice that your weird-things-can-happen argument conveniently fails to address the fact that day before yesterday Rasmussen said as follows:

“The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Castle earning 48% of the vote, while Coons gets 37% support. . . . Coons leads conservative activist Christine O’Donnell, who is challenging Castle for the GOP Senate nomination in a primary next Tuesday, by a 47% to 36% margin. Last month, Coons held a similar 46% to 36% lead over O’Donnell after the candidates were virtually tied in July.”

It is fine to talk about “wave” elections and such; but we are in whatever wave exists, and that wave obviously ain’t doing the trick for O’Donnell.

I just went to the acu website and looked at Castle Collins and Snowe.

http://www.conservative.org/congress-ratings/

I looked at 6 years - 2004 - 2009

0000 sn co ca
2009 48 48 56
2008 12 20 28
2007 28 36 20 castle worst
2006 36 48 52
2005 32 32 28 castle worst
2004 60 68 52 castle worst

In 3 out of the last 6 years, Castle was worse than Snowe and Collins. In 2 of the last 6, Snowe was the worst. In 1, Snowe and Collins were tied.

If those 6 years were averaged, Snowe would be the worst, Collins would be the best, and Castle would be in the middle. Snowe and Collins vote pretty much the same, but Collins in the same or better than Snowe in all years.

O’Donnell cannot win in Delaware. Period.

Simply not true. Period.

The Democrats all over the web are literally jumping for joy because of this announcement.

And because "Democrats all over the web" think it to be true, it must be so, right?

O'Donnell was leading over Coons, before the Republican establishment started going negative. If O'Donnell does end up losing, it is because of the smear campaign of the Obama-Pelosi-Castle wing of the Republican establishment.

There was a poll of DC insiders recently. I forget the actual numbers, but something like 40 to 45% of all Republican insiders actually supported Obama. These people are the true enemies. At least the Democrats don't hide their true affiliation.

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