Posted on 08/19/2010 8:21:52 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
Tony Abbott’s risk-averse and tightly managed poll campaign has not only elevated him from his status as an underdog, but Australia’s opposition leader is now within striking distance of a victory at this weekend’s election.
Dubbed the “mad monk” because of his period studying to be a Roman Catholic priest, the 53-year-old leader of the centre-right coalition is on a final blitz among marginal seats that will determine whether he can defeat Julia Gillard’s first-term Labor government.
On Thursday, Mr Abbott dismissed as Labor party propaganda opinion polls that found the government could win the popular vote but lose the election on the back of a rout in New South Wales and Queensland marginal seats.
“I’m taking nothing for granted,” he said. “It’s probably just more spin from a bad government.”
Mr Abbott’s shot at becoming prime minister is remarkable given that he has led his party for less than nine months, most of which time he was not considered a contender.
A global-warming sceptic, he took the helm after a Liberal party brawl when the former Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull tried to back the government’s climate-change policy.
Since June, Mr Abbott’s political fortunes have been burnished by another party disagreement, this time within the Labor ranks, as Kevin Rudd was deposed as prime minister before the end of his maiden term.
Ms Gillard’s honeymoon as prime minister was shattered by a fresh bout of Labor back-stabbing and leaking, boosting Mr Abbott’s standing.
Mr Abbott’s focus during the five-week campaign has been on winding back government initiatives rather than promoting fresh policies. Under his leadership, the government’s A$43bn ($39bn, €30bn, £25bn) national broadband network roll-out and watered-down resources tax would be abandoned and he has promised not to introduce a carbon tax.
Mr Abbott has portrayed Labor as a profligate, high-taxing and incompetent government that has built up excessive debts and budget deficits. These messages have resonated with an electorate accustomed to budget surpluses and low debt.
He has also blamed the government for a rise in the number of asylum seekers arriving by boat and vowed to toughen up Australia’s border. He has proudly stated that his first act as prime minister will be to call the leader of Nauru to set up a detention centre on the island for seaborne asylum-seekers.
David Burchell, an author and lecturer at the University of Western Sydney, says Mr Abbott has been lucky with his timing but his political skills have been underestimated because of the media’s obsession with his sometimes controversial views.
The married father of three is a staunch advocate of traditional family values, and is a long-time opponent of abortion, embryonic stem cell research, no-fault divorce and same-sex marriage. He is also gaffe-prone, admitting this year he doesn’t always tell the “gospel” truth.
“He has had to temper his social conservative views,” Mr Burchell said. “At the same time he has had to advance on the economic conservative front.
“But it’s been said by people like Peter Costello [former Liberal government treasurer] that he doesn’t have an economic bone in his body.”
Paul Kelly, Australia’s veteran political commentator, said Mr Abbott had performed well this week at a public gathering in Brisbane where he fielded questions for an hour.
“He offered prudence, personal conviction and the humility of the common man,” Mr Kelly observed.
tomorrow is the Australia Fed Election. Who should I vote for
tomorrow is the Australia Fed Election. Who should I vote for
Yikes. He thinks he’s Putin. I hope he beats that horrible woman.
The Liberal/National coalition is the only conservative choice among parties that can actually win. There’s some other decent small parties, but of those only Family First has any hope at all of achieving even a single Senate position.
Unfortunately, despite some opinion polls saying it is a dead heat I think Labor will manage to retain enough seats to stay in power, but Tony Abbott can be proud of the campaign he fought. He was underestimated, and brought the Liberals to the brink of regaining power, but I suspect all the demonising of him will work out just about well enough for Labor to hold on.
Looks like Labor will take a pounding in some states, but by performing well enough in others will hold on, if only by the skin of their teeth.
Tony Abbott is the most conservative candidate running, so vote for him! The more conservative that Australia becomes, the better it will be for the entire country. “Stuck on socialism” is so yesterday.
Pray for Mr. Abbott’s victory over the Communist Gillard.
i haven’t watched australian tv for several years, been more focused on the US politics. Is the Australia media as bad as the American ones? How are they demonizing him?
Well, for a start using terms like ‘the Mad Monk’ because he happens to be a devout Catholic...
I can’t tell you how angry I am about the Family First, they have their preferences for the Labor Party above the Liberal....they are going way down on our list, just above Labor and the Greens.
What electorate are you in?
Family First far more commonly give preferences to the Coalition over Labor. If they’ve done different in your electorate, there’s a reason.
South Australia where Family First was founded and have one of two representatives...that is why I am so angry at them. You might be interested in this:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/election/family-first-sought-preference-deal-with-australian-sex-party/story-fn5zm695-1225897800594
Now, I've just checked the How to Vote cards for every House of Reps seat Family First is running in in South Australia:
Adelaide - Liberals are put second, Labor fifth.
Barker - Liberals second, Labor fourth
Boothby - Liberals second, Labor seventh
Grey - Liberals second, Labor third
Hindmarsh - Liberals second, Labor fourth
Kingston - Liberals second, Labor fourth
Makin - Liberals second, Labor seventh
Mayo - Liberals second, Labor seventh
Port Adelaide - Liberals second, Labor third
Sturt - Liberals second, Labor sixth
Wakefield - Liberals second, Labor fourth
In every single seat that Family First are running in in South Australia, they've directed their second preference to the Liberals. There is no case where they have given Labor preference over the Liberals as you seem to believe.
I wonder why you believe this - hang on. Back in March at the South Australian state election, Labor rather sneakily distributed How to Vote Cards that made it look like Family First had given them its preferences which was not true.
I'm wondering if you've fallen for a dirty trick like that. It's designed to mislead people.
Family First will occasionally give a Labor politician preference over the coalition (they did in 2007 in two seats but only in cases where that specific Labor politician is anti-gay marriage, while their coalition opponent is pro-gay marriage.) They might also do it at some stage over another one of their core issues - but in general, they direct preferences to the coalition and they are doing so at this election in South Australia.
Take a look at every How to Vote card, I just did. Liberals are the second preference on every one of them.
I'll see if I can find them for other states too.
Can't quickly find them for the other states, so yes, some are pretty difficult. And I haven't checked Queensland, WA, or NSW in the way I checked SAs. But in SA, across the board, their preferences are going Liberal over Labor.
OK, you have convinced me...I hope you are right about the Family First preferences and we have a Liberal victory tomorrow.... and that the Greens don’t do as well as everyone is predicting.
The Greens are the ones that worry me. I can definitely see their preferences helping Labor slide over the line. I share your hope that the predictions on the Green vote is wrong.
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