Posted on 07/16/2010 6:16:02 AM PDT by gumbyandpokey
U.S. SENATE RACE: Reid takes lead on Angle
New poll shows Republican losing support among every voter group
By LAURA MYERS © 2010 LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL More Info
* Elections * Opinion Polls * Politics
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
Harry Reid Senator ahead outside of margin of error
U.S. Sen. Harry Reid has opened a strong lead over Republican opponent Sharron Angle after pummeling her in a ubiquitous TV and radio ad campaign that portrays the Tea Party favorite as "too extreme," according to a new poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
The Democratic incumbent's aggressive strategy of attacking Angle's staunch conservative views from the moment she won the June 8 primary has cost her support among every voter group -- from men and women to both political parties and independents -- in vote-rich Clark and Washoe counties.
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"He's had five perfect weeks," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "The race has been all about her, and he's been doing a good job of pounding her."
Yet Coker said it's too soon to write off Angle. More than one-quarter of the nonpartisan swing voters who probably will decide the Nov. 2 election haven't jumped to the still-unpopular Reid but instead are undecided or in the "other" or "none of these candidates" columns, the poll showed.
"I wouldn't write her obituary just yet," Coker said, noting it's a long way to November. "Three and a half months is a lifetime, and at some point she's going to be able to start fighting back."
The Mason-Dixon poll showed that if the general election were held now, Reid would win 44 percent to 37 percent for Angle. Ten percent were undecided, 5 percent would choose "none of these candidates," and the remaining 4 percent would pick another candidate on the ballot.
That is the best Reid has done against Angle this year in a series of Mason-Dixon polls. Previously, the two had been locked in a statistical dead heat with Angle finishing just ahead of Reid in February, 44 percent to 42 percent, and in June, 44 percent to 41 percent, and Reid finishing just ahead of Angle in May, 42 percent to 39 percent.
The phone survey, taken Monday through Wednesday of 625 likely voters in Nevada, is the first in which Reid has finished ahead of Angle outside the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The Reid campaign attributed the senator's momentum to its efforts to expose the former Reno assemblywoman's views.
They include allowing young workers to opt out of Social Security and instead open personal retirement accounts, doing away with federal agencies such as the Education Department to cut spending and developing Yucca Mountain into a nuclear reprocessing facility.
"We have always said that as Nevada voters become familiar with Sharron Angle's extreme positions on Social Security, education and Yucca Mountain, they will reject her agenda," Reid campaign spokesman Jon Summers said in a statement. "Nevadans know Senator Reid is working every day to create jobs, keep people in their homes and get our economy back on track."
The Angle campaign -- a mom-and- pop operation that had been piling up debt during the GOP primary -- acknowledged it has been overwhelmed and overmatched by the rapid-fire Reid camp, which has been spending about $1 million a month, including on nonstop ads.
But Angle spokesman Jerry Stacy said the campaign is now capable of battling back after raising nearly as much money as Reid during the latest fundraising quarter that ended June 30: $2.3 million compared with $2.4 million. Angle's campaign now has nearly $1.8 million cash on hand, compared with $9 million cash for Reid, who has raised $19.2 million this election cycle.
"While we were busy raising money, Harry Reid was busy distorting Sharron Angle's record while trying to hide from his own," Stacy said in an interview. "Now it's our turn. Now that we have the money, we're going to be able to run a more effective campaign."
Stacy said that Reid's best hope of winning re-election is to keep the focus on Angle because he is unpopular at home. Also, President Barack Obama and Reid are having difficulty convincing voters that the $787 billion stimulus bill and industry bailouts are working to turn the economy around.
"Harry Reid knows he's in trouble, and he can't build himself up," Stacy said. "He can't run on his record and win. People counted Sharron out during the primary, but we proved them wrong. Do not count Sharron Angle out now. What this race is really about is the economy."
Nevada has suffered more than other state during the recession. It has a record unemployment rate of 14 percent, the highest in the nation, and record high home foreclosure and bankruptcy rates.
Angle's first and only TV ad in the general election hits Reid on the economy. Stacy said a second commercial has been cut and will air soon, also taking Reid to task for Nevada's dismal standing, becoming the hardest-hit state in the nation during the Senate leader's watch.
But Reid is starting to go toe-to-toe with Angle on economic issues, both by attacking her in TV and radio ads and by having Obama come to Nevada as he did last week to promote Reid and the Democrats' moves to create new jobs and spur private business development.
While Reid helped save the $8.5 billion CityCenter project on the Strip by pressuring banks to continue funding it, Angle has said she would not have interfered, something the senator's campaign points out in its attack ads. Reid also has a positive ad promoting his CityCenter role.
Angle and other fiscally conservative Republicans argue that private enterprises should fail or succeed on their own and government shouldn't choose which industries are "too big to fail."
Since last month, Reid's campaign has managed to make Angle nearly as unpopular as Reid.
According to the latest Mason-Dixon poll, 46 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Reid and 37 percent have a favorable view of him now. That compares with 52 percent to 35 percent in June.
Angle's unfavorable rating, meanwhile, jumped by double digits -- from 25 percent in early June to 43 percent now -- while her favorable rating is now 33 percent compared with 38 percent last month.
"I was surprised how quickly and how effectively the Reid campaign came out against her after the primary," said Eric Herzik, political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno. "I think Angle got caught off guard. Harry Reid didn't give her any breathing time, so she got defined as 'wacky Sharron.' "
As a result, Angle lost support across the board in July compared with early June:
■ Among men, Angle fell from 50 percent support to 41 percent now.
■ Among women, 38 percent to 33 percent.
■ Among Democrats, 12 percent to 8 percent.
■ Among Republicans, 81 percent to 70 percent.
■ Among independents, 41 percent to 35 percent.
■ Among Clark County voters, 37 percent to 32 percent.
■ And among Washoe County voters, 51 percent to 34 percent.
Reid's support ticked up a bit among all those groups except nonpartisans, with his backing holding steady at 37 percent now compared with 37 percent in the June 1-3 survey.
The Democratic incumbent, whose base of support is Southern Nevada, saw his numbers shoot up by double digits in Washoe County -- from 32 percent to 45 percent -- which should jolt Angle, whose base is Northern and rural Nevada, which remains strongly for her and against Reid.
Herzik said the new Mason-Dixon poll findings show how effective Reid's general election strategy has been, and now the question is "how well does Angle respond."
In Angle's previous close elections, Herzik said the grass-roots campaigner has usually finished strong, including when she nearly beat Rep. Dean Heller in 2006 and won the GOP primary this year.
"She needs to come up with a response that levels the playing field," Herzik said. "We've seen that Harry's Part 1 was pretty effective" in his general election campaign. "What is Harry's Part 2? What's the next thing he can use to promote his campaign and really bring down Sharron Angle?"
Social Security doesn't seem to be a winning issue for either camp because voters are so divided on it.
According to the Mason-Dixon poll, 46 percent think that allowing investment in private accounts "is too financially risky" and the current system should be left alone, which endorses Reid's position. But 41 percent agree that young workers should be allowed to "opt out" of Social Security "as long as those who have already paid into the Social Security system receive their benefits as promised," which is what Angle proposes. Another 13 percent were not sure.
Angle has said her focus will be "the economy, the economy, the economy," arguing federal government should create a low-tax, low-regulation, business-friendly environment to create jobs.
Reid's camp seems intent on highlighting his work to bring clean-energy jobs to Nevada and intent on continuing to portray Angle as out of step and out of the mainstream.
Herzik said voters should expect an "October surprise," including some sort of positive economic announcement that Obama and Reid can make to help put him over the top to victory.
In the end, Reid himself has long said he doesn't need to raise his support too much higher to win because voters will face nine choices on the splintered ballot: Reid, Angle, four nonpartisan candidates, one Independent American Party contender, one Tea Party of Nevada candidate and "none."
Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.
it’s the wishy washy love evryone republican which messes this party up.
The type which has no problem with homosexuals and their agenda
The type which says well we should show compassion to illegals and give them welfare
The type which says well obama is trying we have to help him to make this a better country.
The type which watches the local news channels and actually is too lazy to do their own research but instead believes their liberals friends and the local news . the view, Oprah Ellen and the rest of the today show, good morning America crap.
That is the 19% of idiot republicans which screw us all up in this country
Your right. And its sad that he has a lead; especially since he is responsible for the awful mess his state is in.
good for you for getting the message out and it is people like you which this country needs.
Instead of trusting the media we have to get the message out, WE have to tell everyone we know. We have to let is be known to all we cross i our life.
Even if I am in the Docs, Dentist, waiting rooms, lines for shopping and I get talking I make it a point of telling them about what is going on and it is amazing how many say they have no clue about ACORN, Black racists, corrupted media, corrupted racist justice dept.
I’d say 8 out of 10 do not know anything about what is going on due to them watching local channels
good for you for getting the message out and it is people like you which this country needs.
Instead of trusting the media we have to get the message out, WE have to tell everyone we know. We have to let is be known to all we cross in our life.
Even if I am in the Docs, Dentist, waiting rooms, lines for shopping and I get talking I make it a point of telling them about what is going on and it is amazing how many say they have no clue about ACORN, Black racists, corrupted media, corrupted racist justice dept.
I’d say 8 out of 10 do not know anything about what is going on due to them watching local channels
Unfortunately, he’s a Senator so he affects us all
We don’t deserve it
my NRA membership will expire due to them not helping here.
You haven’t bee following Angle much have you?
Corrupt is the new black.
(only explanation I can think of)
I think folks expecting 2010 to be a cakewalk are fooling themselves. In AZ-8, I expect ‘blue dog’ Giffords will win. She’ll have a lot of support in people and cash from the unions. An incumbent with a lot of cash is tough to beat - look at McCain. When someone has 20+ million dollars to pour into attack ads, they can muddy the waters pretty thoroughly. And Arizona just voted to raise the sales tax ‘for the children’!
2010 is NOT going to be an easy year. It will be a fight, needing cash and manpower on the conservative side.
Hmmm...maybe Gabby is going to help us out:
“Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) said in a TV interview that she opposes SB 1070: ‘Having formerly served in the state legislature, if I had been there, I don’t think I would have voted for it.’”
In AZ-8, I think even the Hispanics are fed up with illegal immigration!
Boxer has 12 times the cash that Fiorina has. Boxer will be reelected.
Jerry Brown will be elected Governor of California over Whitman.
Rubio has a 50/50 chance against Crist. Not looking good.
McCain will win the Primary. I think he will have a tougher time than anyone will admit in the General.
Reid and Pelosi will still be in charge after the smoke clears.
Remember in November will turn out to be the same old, same old.
I will hope I'm wrong on every point, but that Hopey stuff hasn't worked out lately. The Media Propaganda Machine is too strong, and the Voting Public’s knowledge of the truth is too weak.
Light a candle and pray.
Angle would do well to copy them so Old Harry cannot paint himself as the moderate which he once was.
+1
I guess people in this country actually want Marxism. I don't know how else to explain it.
I’m just saying in relation to all the other independent public pollsters, Ras typically shows a bit more strength to Republicans.
But even disregarding that, Ras also has been showing an erosion in Angle’s support. His first poll about a month ago gave her an 11 pt lead. They’re now tied in the Ras poll. This is in line with other results. Reid’s attacks have had an impact, and Angle needs to stop the gaffes, and turn the tables on Reid.
Angle will win in a walk if the race is a referendum on Reid and the Obama agenda. Otherwise, she loses.
THE RACE MUST BE ABOUT REID.
Don't you think its odd that the only polls that show Reid ahead are TWO from the same source which is the Mason Dixon firm conducting a Reid for the same client the LV Review ???
M-D had him ahead in May ???
Why is Angle's support only 36% when no other poll shows that ???
M-D did a PAID poll based on the clients criteria ! Don't fall apart so quickly .
We have to fight on against the Obama state media push polling
garbage too not just believe it.
Except when the "unknown" becomes known with huge questions and concern. Then the advantage shifts heavily to the devil you know incumbent.
reid probably had the mafia threaten Mason Dixon.
LLS
reid is going down!
LLS
I think most dims are demon possessed zombies, so your post makes perfect sense.
LLS
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