LOL!!! We'll see about that!
Let's just take these one at a time:
1. There is no serious contest for the Democratic Party nomination: Wait until Hillary resigns as Secretary of State after the midterm elections and then goes on another "listening tour."
2. Obama has not presided over a major foreign policy failure: He has basically ignored foreign policy since he's been in office. Anyone who things that he can keep this up for another couple years is insane.
3. His administration has achieved "major changes in national policy": Most Americans don't view trying to turn Israel into the enemy as a positive change.
The Professor probably knows the fix is in.
We can expect to see a lot of creative opeds from liberal mediots trying to hold up the sinking reality of their beloved Lord 0HaHa.
The reality is scored by this oped:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2551511/posts
The Fading Embers of Obama’s Coalition (WAPO turning on Obama)
The Washington Post ^ | July 13, 2010 | Marc A. Thiessen
Posted on Monday, July 12, 2010 10:04:57 PM by no dems
With midterm elections less than four months away, Republicans are fired up and ready to go. But they are not the only ones upset with Barack Obama. The president has also angered many of the key Democratic constituencies he needs to keep control of the House and Senate, and now Democrats are blowing furiously on the fading embers of their electoral coalition, hoping to stave off disaster this November.
Unions are incensed with Obama and congressional Democrats for their failure to deliver on key priorities such as card-check legislation. Another disenchanted constituency is Hispanics. Latino support for Obama has dropped 12 points since the start of the year, as anger has grown over the Democrats’ failure to make immigration reform a priority.
The drop in Hispanic support is dwarfed by the astounding 36-point drop in support for Obama from one of the most reliable Democratic constituencies: Jewish voters. Jewish Americans are outraged with Obama, says former New York Mayor Ed Koch. And it’s not because Obama’s middle name
The Halfrican might not even be around in 2012 .
What Lichtman overlooks, like many “experts”, is the fact that Obama was behind in most polls six weeks before the election. He was give a jet-propelled boost by the financial collapse of late September. Without that he might have lost. The margin of victory certainly would have been a lot closer. If the economy doesn’t improve drastically by 2012, he’s cooked.
By this man’s standards, Obama is dead meat. His foreign policy crisis is just around the corner in the Middle East as he has emboldened the Jew hating jihadists to attack Israel.
Social unrest is going to be another problem for Obama as he is mobilizing blacks to attack his political/racial enemies. Every time the far left does this, the black ghettos see it as a green light to step up their race hate verbage and criminal activity. Obama only wants them to target the Tea Party people and intimidate voters, but they don’t have that discipline. We see it in the city wildin’ groups who are attacking people of other races for sport.
The economy is a mess and it will be a mess for a long time with Obama in charge. It is going to go from bad to worse.
Finally, he is not a US natural born citizen and he will be confronted with that legal issue if he runs for re-election. McCain saved him once but I don’t think McCain will be able to muster the silence of the GOP to do it again for Obama. There are already elected GOP officials saying it is a problem.
He has 13 conditions and at most, 20 data points (elections). Actually, you have fewer elections because he his talking about reelecting an incumbent. You have to reduce them even further because a bunch of the incumbent reelections were FDR, which strike me as a possible outlier.
You could fit almost any set of 20 data points with 13 variables.
I note that “incumbent is a raving incompetent” was not one of his keys
If there’s one thing you CAN count on, it’s that university professors know what they’re talking about.
Obama is not guaranteed anything, including surviving his first term, especially if a shooting Civil War breaks out.
Fixed it for Mr. Lichmann
Licthman's keys actually are pretty insightful and do have some validity, but neither the professor nor any sane person would try to evaluate the keys prior to the actual election year and we're two friggin years away from election 2012.
The other problem with Lichtman's keys is they're a bit subjective. How much scandal constitutes "major" scandal? What amount of "charisma" makes the incumbent or a challenger "charismatic", etc.
All that matters is who counts the votes. Joe Stalin said so.