But my attitude towards my next computer has profoundly shifted lately. My next computer will be a large, pimped out desktop machine. But my laptop will become a smartphone, like a Dell Streak. Smartphones are much more portable than the laptop, portable enough that I will actually take it places. The smartphones are not as powerful as the laptops, but most won't care. It will do most jobs well enough. And on the desktop side, since I won't be taking it anywhere, I might as well make it a server, not just putting my laptop on a desk. So my computing power will be split between the big and the very small.
That I think is the coming market space in a nutshell, very big, and very small, with a growing gap in between. The race is on to develop that small mobile computer market space. Apple, Google via android, and Microsoft will be the players. And don't scoff at Microsoft being in last place, they tend to be last in every new thing, but they will end up getting things right eventually.
Interesting analysis. And you're right to not count Microsoft out. They've had lots of trouble in the mobile area so far, but they've still got time to learn what it's about.