Posted on 06/03/2010 10:44:44 AM PDT by jhpigott
Edited on 06/03/2010 10:47:23 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
I cannot understand why N Korea thinks threatening war is a negotiating tactic. If S Korea called their bluff , NK would cease to exist in a matter of days. They would do a lot of damage on their way out, but suicide doesn’t seem to be a rational option.
The late Herman Kahn described this negotiating tactic as "One of us has to be reasonable, and it isn't going to be me."
“And hopefully only a few hundred thousand South Koreans will die.”
Hopefully none of them will die.
I doubt anything will happen at all. He’s threatened war many times, but he knows if he actually declares war he’s finished.
And if North Korea is of a mind to nuke South Korea - what better time to do that than with Obama as president??
The NK leadership would be GONE. Anyone of any power would am-scray to avoid a wrathful population.
Maybe they realize they're doomed and are attempting to incite a war so they can go out in "glory" and with a shout rather than continue to rot internally and collapse with a whimper.
If the Obama administration actually had somebody that knew what they were doing working for it, they would announce that China would be held completely responsible for whatever NK does.
Kim has to keep his generals happy with tough talk; however, bottom line is, he’s a sybarite who values above all else his Remy, his caviar, and his harem of dancing girls.
He’s not going to rock the velvet-lined luxury boat any more than he has to in order to maintain his cred with the army.
I hope not either; but if war does start it has the high potential to get a lot of good people killed.
Including many American military members.
“I would call sinking a S. Korean naval vessel with 46 hands on board a little more than just rattling the sabers . . .”
From their perspective, not really. The world is so used to the NORKs spouting off like lunatics that it begins to lose it’s effect. The NORKs are fairly certain that the U.S. and SK won’t go to war over this.
You are likely correct that the sinking of the Cheonan will not in and of itself lead to war. But when I think of rattling sabres I think of bombastic rhetoric and some military exercises - not acts of war. A non-response by the US/ROK is only going to encourage nastier provacations by the NORKs
There is not a high potential of many people getting killed other than norks.
I think many knowledgeable people strongly disagree with that statement.
Actually, I think the NORKs are being logical and measured. In an insane and psychopathic kind of way.
Unfortunately, you can’t reason with the insane. And a measured public display of force on our part isn’t going to help. It would have to be something along the lines of Scipio Aemilianus in Carthage.
They've got a whole lot of arms lying around. That, and having a couple of million less mouths to feed, frankly, would improve their situation.
China worries me, but not for awhile. NK worries me now.
“Knowledgeable” people would not disagree.
Of course there is always a potential for S.K. and even Americans getting killed, when a paranoid schizo is in control of a country. But in this case not a HIGH potential, even given the fact that we have a coward in control of this country. Zero would have no choice but to back S.K. and obliterate N.K. in a matter of minutes.
The little man in N.K. is a bag of hot air, and he wants something for nothing.
I saw an article the other day that goes with the picture that accompanies this story. The North Korean soldiers at the “peace village” now wear helmets instead of the soft hats.
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