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Posted on 05/13/2010 4:44:26 AM PDT by Hojczyk
My name is Tim Burns and I am NOT a politician. I don't claim to know "how Washington works" because I don't believe that it does. I've never secured wasteful pork barrel spending and I don't spend more than I have.
I am a businessman, who is tired of the massive government spending, trillions of dollars of debt and the corruption in Congress.
ping
Go Bill Russell!
I SECOND THE GO BILL RUSSELL! Millionnaire vs the VET.....there is no choice in my book. What has Tim Burns done since 2003? I know he is multimillionnaire....congrats to him on that but what kind of man sits on his hands, earns interest on his money, does VOLUNTEER work and now decides he is going to Washington to straighten out the country???? I say, a lazy man.
Ping ~~~
This is really frustrating. We had a chance at this seat, but the local powers that be (e.g., “Rob Gleason”) screwed up once again by passing over Bill Russell for a guy that the opposition has been able to cast as an “out of touch millionaire.” Nothing against Tim Burns, but he was the wrong choice at this time.
Now, people are frankly confused. Who’s running for what? Who’s on first?
Yes, Tim Burns came out of no-where....and why.....only because he has money. WHAT OTHER REASON CAN THERE BE???
He is still calling himself “I am not a politician, I AM A BUSINESS MAN”......WHAT IS HIS PRESENT BUSINESS?? How many people does he employ. You cannot say you are a businessman if you have no employees and the last time you had employees was 2003.....SEVEN YEARS IS A LONG TIME TO DO NOTHING!!!!! Why should we expect his pattern of behavior to change because he is in Washington? Good grief
Polls are showing this Special Election as a dead heat. Republican turnout SHOULD eclipse Democrat turnout because Republicans not only have the Special Election to vote on, but also the highly contested primary for November between Burns and Russell to vote on. Democrats have Critz and Critz.
Unfortunately, registered Democrats outnumber reg. Republicans by a large margin in PA-12.
I just hope Republicans who are for Russell don’t withhold their votes from Burns in the Special Election. They shouldn’t hold it against Burns that the party picked him to run. Russell should help quell this and encourage his supporters to vote Burns in the Special. May the best man win in the Primary to face Critz in November.
On May 18, We will vote for either Tim Burns or Critz to fill Murtha’s seat until November.
On May 18, we will vote for either Tim Burns or Bill Russell to be the Republican nomination to run against the democrat in November.
Is this correct?
So, even if Tim Burns wins the special election, he will only be serving for a few months....if Russell wins the primary?
Do I have this correct?
and if he is a millionnaire, why does he wants us to give him our money......This post is nothing more than a donation request.....
I will give my money to the VET anytime, actually, I already have.
You are correct in your analysis.
First order of business is getting the seat in GOP hands (Burns). Next order will be KEEPING it in GOP hands (either Burns or Russell-whomever wins next Tues. primary). Critz will be the only RAT next Tues. and in Nov.
This poll, conducted by Susquehanna Polling & Research, a Republican firm, was commissioned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, a conservative leaning newspaper that has already endorsed Tim Burns in the May 18th special election.
The poll reflects the recent polling trend of Critz, the Democrat, pulling away from Burns, the Republican.
With Burns dropping like a rock, it's time to get serious about standing with Bill Russell in the Republican Primary if we want a conservative representing this district next year.
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I don’t think the DCCC is too confident that Critz has it in the bag:
From Swing State Project - May 13.
“The DCCC has thrown down another $290,000 on media buys against Tim Burns, bringing their total investment in this race up to nearly $940,000.”
First order of business, drag Burns over the finish line in the Special Election to get the seat in GOP hands. Second order of business, KEEP it in GOP hands with whomever wins the GOP primary.
I hope Russell supporters will vote for Burns for the Special.
Stop worrying about it, of course they will. I live in this district and no Russell supporter, and I know plenty, is talking about not voting for Burns in the special. As a matter of fact the Russell campaign has had this to say;
"We have no animosity toward Mr. Burns, although we do think he was somewhat of an opportunist, jumping in after everything that has happened this past year. But we certainly do hope he wins the special election," said Russell spokesman Steve Clark. "We're not (endorsing) anybody. We're not running in the special election. We're running in the primary.""
Now that, randita, in local Republican politics here,is what is known as a noble gesture.
"
First order of business, drag Burns over the finish line in the Special Election...
Well, that's what it will take, but I advise against anyone here sending him money, the guy's worth about 150 million bucks. He'll take your money and laugh his butt off all the way to the bank.
Good to know. Thanks for filling me in. Because of the competitive primary, there may be a larger number of Republicans than usual going out to vote, which will be necessary to overcome the Dem lean in voter registrations in that district for the Special.
Any anecdotal or real reports that Dems are NOT going to vote for Critz?
Don't forget the Specter-Sestak Dem Senate primary, there is heightened enthusiasm among Democrat voters over that race. It will offset the heightened interest in the Burns-Critz matchup.
The district has 410,000 registered voters. 256,000(63%) are Dems, 118,000(29%) are Repubs, and 36,000(8%) are "unaffiliated" or third party (including 2,200 registered Libertarians).
One aspect of this race that has been repeatedly overlooked by polling, partisan political hacks, and pontificating pundits is the fact that there are three candidates on the special election ballot. Critz, Burns, and Agoris(a Libertarian). Agoris currently holds elective office in the district and has a loyal following of likeminded souls who will show up and vote for him. Expect him to garner between 2-4% of the vote on May 18th. Those are votes that would normally go for the Republican candidate, Burns.
Any anecdotal or real reports that Dems are NOT going to vote for Critz?
There is plenty of real evidence that fiscally conservative Democrats will abandon Critz and vote for Burns. That occured in Irey-Murtha '06 and Russell-Murtha '08. The question is, how many. Socially conservative Dems will for the most stick with Critz.
A large anecdotal factor that has actually been polled is the lingering affection for Murtha. His approval rating among all voters remains at 55%. To many Democrats and even not an insignifant number of Republicans, the special election is about Murtha's legacy. That's one of the main reasons the DCCC is pouring money in, Pelosi and Murtha were tight as tics, and she will pull out all the stops to see a Democrat complete Murtha's unfinished term. In November, she won't care as much, she'll be defending more important seats all over the rest of the country. Remember, because of the census and redistricting, PA-12 will disappear in 2012.
If I had to make a call on this election as it stands at this minute, given your assumption that this is a tight race, I would say Critz 50%, Burns, 47%, Agoris 3%. The Libertarian is the spoiler.
Discounting the tight race scenario, which I tend to reject anyway, I think the likely outcome on May 18th will be Critz 53%, Burns, 44%, Agoris 3%. It's unfortunate for Burns, but it will still be enough to give the Republican establishment elites some bragging room.
And that, as I've always maintained, is the reason to do everything possible to make sure Russell wins the Republican primary. A victory by Russell gives us a fresh horse in the November contest, when we will really need it, if we want to take back the House next year.
Thanks, Smooth. Very good post.
Thanks for the lengthy and informative response. I am in the PA 15th (Allentown) and around here you would hardly know there is going to be a primary on Tues. I walk around the neighborhood several times a week and only a handful of yards out of hundreds have any signs on them. Most of the signs are for the incumbent Congressman, Charlie Dent (R) and there are a couple for Onorato and Sestak. Haven’t seen any for Specter.
I drove around today doing errands as I do every few days and have hardly seen any signs along the roads and highways I’ve traveled. I did see a few today for Sestak, but that was it. None for the congressional or governor’s races.
I think turnout will be very light here, judging from that anecdotal evidence.
It still eludes me how a district like PA-12 can vote decisively for McCain, yet could vote for a Pelosi puppet like Murtha and Critz behind him. The obvious conclusion would be that the Democrats in that district wouldn’t vote for a black man, but in this day and age, that’s hard to believe. What is the real explanation?
It really wasn’t decisive for MCain, IIRC he carried the district by less than 3 thousand votes, I think he and Obama both got about 49% of the vote. I don’t think race was a factor to any real degree. I think McCain’s military service and Obama’s lack of it made the difference quite frankly.
When it comes to local elections though, military service is an absolute must for a male candidate. Folks here love the military. 18% of registered voters are veterans. There’s VFW’s and American Legion Hall’s and War Memorials in virtually every township throughout this nine-county district. One of the largest VA cemetaries is here and nearby Pittsburgh is home to one of the best VA Hospitals in the country. Veterans and their spouses and voting age children are very important and influential throughout PA-12. Most importantly, they vote in large numbers, they see it as a civic duty, and they like candidates who’ve worn the uniform.
Murtha was a veteran, so is Critz. Of the seven candidates in the PA-12 race in either the special or primaries, all have prior military service except one, Burns. This is a very real problem for Burns, both in the special and primary.
Even with all the national hype about this race I don’t expect turnout to exceed 45 or 50%, and that’s a strong turnout for an off year election around here.
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