Posted on 05/02/2010 11:43:59 AM PDT by Chi-townChief
Luke DeMarte, of Chicago, writes: In your column on Monday you said the following: "My view -- the infusion of people from south of the border strengthens our country, saving us from the demographic death spiral dooming places like Italy and Japan -- is the standard liberal claptrap, so I won't belabor you with it."
What do you mean by the "demographic death spiral?" I understand that Italy and Japan are pretty insular places with little diversity, but I'm not sure how that equates to a death spiral.
Excellent question. Sometimes, a social problem so freaks us out that fear of it lingers long after the problem itself goes away.
Exhibit No. 1: overpopulation, at least in Western countries. Having spent two centuries scaring ourselves with Thomas Malthus' gloomy and mistaken predictions of mass starvation after rapid population growth outstrips food production (he didn't realize how adept we'd get at farming) and spending the 1970s subjected to dystopian visions of a world overstuffed with people -- dig up a copy of John Hersey's novel My Petition for More Space -- we have never quite gotten our heads around the idea that many industrialized nations are rapidly losing people.
L'Italia ha bisogno dei bambini First Italy -- a lovely nation, I should point out, rich in history, beauty and culture; I would be there tomorrow if I could, with my sportcoat draped over my shoulders, sipping an espresso at an outdoor cafe in Naples . . .
But I digress. In 1850, the Italian fertility rate -- the number of births per woman -- was five. Now, it's 1.3. Which means that the population constantly declines -- it's expected to fall 20 percent in coming decades.
In Japan -- also an intriguing country, of ancient traditions and aesthetic pleasures; I would be there right now if I could, steaming in an onsen in Kyoto . . .
Sorry. In Japan, the situation is even worse. With the lowest birthrate in the world, the population of Japan -- 127 million now -- will fall to 95 million in 2050. The total number of children in Japan has dropped every year for 28 years in a row.
In case you feel envy -- thinking "easier to find daycare!" or "shorter waits at popular restaurants!" -- allow me to reprint something from the scholarly journal Population & Societies.
"The projections forecast the total extinction of the Japanese population by around 3000 if lowest-low fertility continues indefinitely. But even limiting the analysis to the next 50 years, this projected decline will lead to profound changes in the Japanese age structure and a marked decrease in the working-age population."
What kind of changes? Increased poverty and stagnation -- in Japan, there are towns that have emptied out. If you think our recession is bad here, Japan has been taking on water for 20 years. Remember when they were going to own us all? That was in the 1980s. Nobody worries about that anymore.
Shrinking population isn't a problem in the United States because we have immigrants coming across the border. While the nativists who so grip our country focus on poverty and crime -- though never, it seems, long enough to grasp that we've always had those woes, or that crime has been steadily declining -- the truth is that young workers with growing families fuel the economy.
"Innovation and new ideas get associated with a youthful labor force," said William Frey, a demographics expert at the Brookings Institution, who said Europe risks becoming "a geriatric ghetto" with a shrinking, aging population.
If I sometimes treat the anti-immigration crowd as if they're not only insane but anti-patriotic to boot, it's because they seem that way, and not just to me. (London's The Economist headlined its story this week on the doings in Arizona with a succinct: "Hysterical Nativism.")
The Minutemen militia sorts are attacking the very thing that will save us. If I hated America and wanted to destroy her, I'd try to close the borders and deport our immigrants, of course wrapping myself in the flag all the while. The fact that proponents of this folly are ignorant of both global realities and the stark consequences should they tragically prevail is a defense but not much of one. They aren't guilty of treason, just fear and idiocy.
Japan's problems are self-inflicted; it has one of the strictest immigration policies in the world. Your great-grandfather could have come from Korea 100 years ago, and your passport in Japan would still identify you a resident Korean.
It boggles my mind that anybody would want that in America, with their dire talk about stopping "anchor babies." I try to point out the cautionary example of Japan to those advocating changes in our laws; ears covered, they flee, perhaps gritting their teeth and repeating "Must . . . not . . . think . . ."
Japan is not facing demographic oblivion without a fight.
"The Japanese government is planning to introduce a less restrictive immigration policy," Population & Societies notes. "But as massive recourse to immigration appears out of the question, its demographic consequences will be limited."
A reminder that we are not spared this decline through any planning or policy or intrinsic worth, not because we can't match Japan xenophobe for xenophobe. Credit a geographical accident -- we are not an island. The border is right there, young Hispanics, looking for work, come across it. Sometimes, I think America is the luckiest nation on earth -- blessed with natural resources, protected by two enormous oceans, and spared the consequences of our periodic embrace of lunacy by sheer chance. God must truly love the United States, to smile upon us in this fashion. You may argue if you like.
mailto:nsteinberg@suntimes.com
Back in the early 1900’s, we had a similar situation with eastern European immigrants, many who jumped ship as soon as the boat came into the harbor. What made it less of a problem then was that those illegal immigrants didn't mooch off the government tit, learned English as soon as humanly possible, and saw our nation as that ‘shining city on a hill’ - something to be proud of and defend with all their power.
And if our current illegals did the same, I seriously doubt that this issue would be as big as it is. Illegal immigration is still illegal, but there would be less of a pressing need to do something *NOW* about it.
Agreed on Brimelow. If America is a “nation of immigrants” it’s also a nation of immigration timeouts, like the almost complete pause we had from 1924 to 1965.
A failure to distinguish between legal and illegal status in discussing immigration policy is evidence of intellectual dishonesty. To act as though it does not matter ignores both law and common sense.
1: I am sure that a lot of US citizens are not having children because the HELLHOLE that unchecked illegal immigration is turning large parts of this nation into. The chaos is turning it into something that many do want to procreate into. I don’t have children, so I can’t swear to this, but I “feeeeeeel” it is true, so I get my once a year liberal piece of nonsense. The amazing and pervasive lack of law enforcement and the apparent inability and unwillingness to do anything about it is something that makes people very nervous.
2: Does anyone really think that if somehow, someway, we got to the point where the alarm went out “OMG, we’re so badly underpopulated, we’re all gonna die!!” that we couldn’t say “QUICK!!! We need 10 million Mexicans within 90 days or the world is gonna end! Señoras y caballeros! Line up on El Border and we’ll let you in gratis that they wouldn’t come in?
1: I am sure that a lot of US citizens are not having children because the HELLHOLE that unchecked illegal immigration is turning large parts of this nation into. The chaos is turning it into something that many do want to procreate into. I don’t have children, so I can’t swear to this, but I “feeeeeeel” it is true, so I get my once a year liberal piece of nonsense. The amazing and pervasive lack of law enforcement and the apparent inability and unwillingness to do anything about it is something that makes people very nervous.
2: Does anyone really think that if somehow, someway, we got to the point where the alarm went out “OMG, we’re so badly underpopulated, we’re all gonna die!!” that we couldn’t say “QUICK!!! We need 10 million Mexicans within 90 days or the world is gonna end! Señoras y caballeros! Line up on El Border and we’ll let you in gratis that they wouldn’t come in?
Its all about the bodies..for the Wall St scams....which morph into claims on the treasury
The illegals from south of the border are a different story and are largely the product of corrupt leftist politics in America that seems to encourage their illegality and desire for government handouts. We should send those corrupt officials back with the illegals.
Makin babies is Patriotic !!
So now get to it, patriots. You know what you are supposed to do, right ?
Yep. And that’s the root of the problem - the welfare culture that most of the modern illegals have. Their demands for America to change and meet their ideals... as opposed to the traditional view that immigrants need to change and meet OUR ideals.
I’m not anti-immigration. I just want folks to do it the LEGAL way, not sneak in, in the dead of night, and set up anywhere they feel like it!
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