Five Reasons Harry Reid Can Win Reelection

US News & World Report ^ | April 15, 2010 | By Paul Bedard

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Reid's associates and some friendly pollsters say the way polls have been done is faulty and that when combined with the complicated Nevada ballot that could offer up to nine options to voters, Reid stands a good chance of victory.

Reid's team, while conceding that he might not win 50 percent but still keep his seat, are dismissive of much of the conventional wisdom and offer up five reasons why Reid should not be counted out yet.

1. The polls are not fully accurate because while they test Reid versus any of the Republicans running, they don't also include third party and other candidates expected to be on the ballot. Up to eight candidates are expected on the ballot.

2. Third party candidates can be very influential and take votes from candidates. Getting over 10 percent of the vote isn't unheard of and in an anti-incumbent, anti-Democratic year, those voters might steal votes away from the Republican competing against other conservative or Tea Party activists.

3. Nevada allows a "None of these candidates" vote which might also attract anti-incumbent protest votes while Reid's core remains dedicated to the Democrat.

4. With so much competition, Reid doesn't need to win 50 percent of the vote, especially if the "none" and Tea Party options collect some 20 percent of the vote.

5. Reid allies think that Nevada voters who take independence from Washington seriously might stage a backlash against outsiders like Sarah Palin who've come in to rally against Reid.

[screaminsunshine]

A political militia is needed to combat these Communists in a non-violent fashion.

[momincombatboots]

Is his district Gerrymandered?

[Northern Yankee]

And Dewey should defeat Truman.

[BelegStrongbow]

Senators don’t have districts, they represent state populations at large.

One longs for the days when the legislatures selected them, the people are doing such a wretched job.

[mike-zed]

The last thing I want is for dingy to realize he’s a hopeless candidate. The only chance for the socialists to keep the seat is if he withdraws.

[saganite]

Whistling past the graveyard. This is kind of like a commentator at a football game saying the team that’s down 14 points with 50 seconds to go and no time outs can still win it if they score now and try an onside kick, score again and then go for the 2 point play. It can happen, I’ve seen it happen, but it’s highly unlikely.

[Mad Dawgg]

"Is his district Gerrymandered?"

Senators don't have districts at the Federal Level.

[Katya]

He’s a Senator, which means the whole state of Nevada votes for him.

[iowamark]

This is a very frank and honest discussion about the use of third party candidates to split the conservative vote. Much as Bill Clinton and Dick Morris, realizing that Clinton could not win a majority, persuaded Henry Ross Perot to run in 1992.

Conservatives should take this threat very seriously.

[coaltrain]

Yes, and monkeys might fly out of my butt. Which is the same place the author of the article pulled his reasoning.

[bitterohiogunclinger]

Perhaps if polls were actually worded not to reach pre conceived results they might accurately reflect the public mood. I think the reply “anybody but Reid” gets recorded as undecided.

[CASchack]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Reid or the DNC quietly bankrolls a third party candidate through a PAC of some sort.

[Zakeet]

Five real reasons why Harry Reid can win reelection

1. ACORN

2. We either use voting machines which leave no paper trail, or punch cards which enable us to determine a voter's intention by examining dimpled chads.

3. We have tens of thousands of voters lounging in bars, passing through in buses, entering into our state from south of the border, and resting in cemeteries.

4. We always win court challenges because the Pubbies are too wimpy to fight -- and we already bought the judges just in case.

   And our real ace in the hole ...

5. We count the votes.

[jmaroneps37]

Each “reason” became more and more laughable until the final one about a palin backlash. I think that one was made up in a drug induced haze.

[ladyvet]

Senators don’t have districts, they represent state populations at large.

There lies the problem here in Nevada. Las Vegas and Reno. The rest of the state despises this piece of feces.

[Doc Savage]

Bedard: “I hope, I hope, I hope, I hope Harry can win so I can lick his ass for ever and ever!”

[BelegStrongbow]

I agree, it’s the problem everywhere. Those who live outside the metro areas are more self-sufficient (mostly because they have to be) and those who live in the metro areas have enough density to make a lot of support services economically viable, which then metastasize into relief efforts. So metro areas drift to the statist side of the political equation.

Thing is, that isn’t always true, however. Here in NC, Raleigh does tend toward the leftist side, but that’s more a result of being the political power center. The financial power center is Charlotte, which consequently leans the other way. Nothing hard and fast here, just degrees of tendency. Still, the Democrat Party has ruled in NC for decades and that’s a hard habit to break.

[momincombatboots]

So that means Nevada folks really choose him? OMG! (no posting before coffee).

[CoastWatcher]

OK everyone - its time for everyone to pony up $10 to Reid’s opponent. Maybe if US news and navel report sees money flowing into Nevada from across the country it would realize that Reid is a loser.