Posted on 04/14/2010 9:32:34 AM PDT by Maelstorm
Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) has transferred $100,000 to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, money that will be used to bash the GOP candidate in next month’s House special election in the Aloha State.
Inouye’s action complicates the behind-the-scenes struggle between Inouye and House Democratic leaders, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, over which Democratic candidate will get DCCC support in the May 22 election.
Inouye and Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii) are backing Hawaii Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, but the DCCC is flirting with throwing its public backing to former Rep. Ed Case, who alienated the Hawaii Democratic establishment by waging an unsuccessful primary challenge to Akaka in 2006.
Case and Hanabusa are vying for the vacant seat of former Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie, who stepped down Feb. 28 to run for governor.
With the prospect of two prominent Democrats splitting the party vote — a scenario that would potentially enable Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou to capture the heavily Democratic seat — party sources say national Democrats have offered quiet organizational support to Case. That effort has coincided with the circulation of opposition research within Washington targeting Hanabusa.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Follow the money...
We have to realize that it is almost impossible for us to win this race, and if we do it will be a major upset, equal to the Scott Brown election.
The media I think is deliberately overplaying these races to try to build a “momentum switch” story. Look at the Florida special election. In a seat won by 66% last year, a guy who was a well-liked State Senator (not an incumbent) democrat manaaged to beat a republican with 62% of the vote, and the media plays it like the repudiation of the Republican stance on health care.
All the special elections are in pretty solid democrat seats — and while the media plays the “it isn’t incumbents so the republicans have a better shot”, frankly this year I think the smartest thing the Dems can do is to get their incumbents to retire — I think we are much better off going up against incumbents.
These are “safe” socialist majority districts.
Yes, it’s a “safe” district, but they’re having to divert time, money, and other resources to what should be an easy win for them - resources that could be used for other races.
I wouldn’t over think this. The Florida 19 was a different race. We could have won it if only half of the people who voted for Ed Lynch previously had voted for him this time. The big different in Hawaii is that there are two strong Democrat candidates who are splitting the vote but interestingly enough Djou is gaining strength seemingly not just from his base which is good. The Florida 19th was what happens when we don’t wake up soon enough and vote and fund GOTV. We didn’t get our voters to the polls in Florida 19 and that is horrible.
Oh, I’m happy, and I think we COULD possibly win one or more of these seats. We just shouldn’t fall into the trap of thinking there is a good chance to win here. I saw people genuinely dissappointed last night they we didn’t win the Florida seat, when we really had no way of winning it (when the pollsters don’t spend the money on the election, it’s usually because they did some preliminary work and know that the race is uninteresting).
yeah, I wish Ed Lynch had done better last night. (Florida 19)
I don't think that Ted Deutch was "well-liked" or even popular because, very-much unlike Edward Lynch, he was Not out talking with the average voters at local parks, holes-in-the-walls, retirement centers, Conservative Tea Party events, etc.
Still, the overall Republican turn-out was about 10% for Dictrict-19 which covers the heavily-retiree, Jewish, Liberal precints of South FLorida.
I was part of the walking teams and we really busted our buns to go door-to-door and tell people about Edward Lynch, at least in Broward COunty. Maybe that's why the margin of loss was not as great there as it was in Palm Beach COunty.
Exactly. Outside of a Scott Brown win it’s hard to see a Republican victory in Hawaii. I think Linda Lingle is an outlier, sort of like former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi was.
The HI-01 is not exactly a “safe” Democrat district. Obama won there by a gazillion points in 2008, but in 2004 President Bush got over 47%, and in a lower-turnout election in which the GOP nominee is a popular, young, Asian-American elected official such as Charles Djou, he would have a good chance of winning against either Case or Hanabusa.
And, of course, Djou won’t have to beat either Case or Hanabusa one-on-one in the special election, since both are running and there won’t be a run-off if the winner gets below 50%. Djou can get 40% and win the special election, and then will have 6 months to prove his mettle before facing either Case or Hanabusa (neither of whom will be a very attractive candidate to supporters of the other) in the November general election for the full two-year term.
Isn’t HI-01 the district that covers the outer Islands (ie doesn’t include Oahu)?
I agree. This is very winnable. Djou is very appealing personally as well as politically and he has a solid record. Hawaii has been hit pretty hard by the recession too. Not as hard as some places stateside but it has been significant.
No, that’s HI-02 (which Case used to represent and is now represented by Hirono). The HI-01, which was represented by Abercrombie until he resigned, is entirely within Oahu, taking in all of Honolulu and its suburbs.
Thanks for clarifying. Interesting that the GOP has performed well, as it is an urban, non-white district. I always thought that for the GOP to win in Hawaii, they would need to unite the Haolies, Filipinos, and Chinese to counterbalance Japanese-American and Polynesian loyalty to the Democratic machine.
From the little I know about ethnic/racial politics in Hawaii (all of which I learned from Michael Barone’s almanac of American Politics), Filipinos are the most heavily Democrat group in the state, Chinese and Native Hawaiians leaning Democrat but being more willing to vote Republican, Japanese usually voting Democrat but swinging towards Republican incumbents (especially in presidential races, where they tend to vote for the current Commander-in-Chief as if their patriotism were on the line), and Haoles being fairly split down the middle. Obviously that adds up to a Democrat-majority state, but it is not impossible for a Republican to carry it.
And, yes, it’s weird how Honolulu is less Democrat than the outlying areas; I guess part of it is that agricultural workers in the other islands still vote Democrat in ridiculous numbers.
As you know, there was a sizeable Puerto Rican community brought over decades ago to work as farm laborers, but many, if not most, intermarried with native Hawaiians or Asians over the years.
Republicans have won in there before. In 1986 and 1988, this distrcit elected Patricia Saiki, a Republican who ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate in 1990.
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