My list of GOP Senate pickups now moves to +7...
Definitely - Indiana +1 (was in the “maybe” group), Nevada +2, North Dakota +3, Arkansas +4
Probably - Pennsylvania +5, Delaware +6, Colorado +7
Maybe - Illinois, Wisconsin
Lucky - NY Gillibrand, Cali, Washington
No Way - NY Schumer, Connecticut, etc
Definitely won’t lose - Florida, Louisiana,etc
“Maybe - Illinois, Wisconsin
Lucky - NY Gillibrand, Cali, Washington
No Way - NY Schumer, Connecticut, etc”
I think Illinios, Wisconsin, and NY-Gillibrand are going to flip.
Please do not brick or zot me for saying this, but I want the Dems to hold the majority in both the House and Senate but with neutered margins. If your progonstications come true and only two of my three, then we get +9 in the Senate. That leaves it at 50-50 with the Ds still in charge, but they may as well forget about passing anything significant. Heck, a simple gain of +4 in the Senate is about all we need.
In the house, I’d like to see something like a +35 swing for Republicans. Yes, the idiots remain in charge, but, again, this effectively neutralizes Pelosi (I’d like to see her step down WITH the Dems in charge personally ... what a blow to her ego that would be).
In this case, Obama still cannot blame anyone but Bush for his failures. The Ds are “still in charge” in congress. This keeps all fingers pointed at Obama as he has basically made himself in “completely in charge” with these majorities in congress.
If the Republicans take back either the House or Senate, you may as well replace the word “Bush” with either “House” or “Senate”. I wouldn’t be unhappy if we won both, but any scenario where Obama does not have complete control gives Obama a boogeyman to blame in the 2012 elections (people will have forgotten 2009-2011 assuming nothing spectacular happens between now and then).
Won’t lose FLorida? Rubio will bet Crist.
Won’t lose FLorida? Rubio will bet Crist and he will beat the Democrat. The Hispanics love Rubio.