Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Colofornian; MissesBush
It's simple. Do the math

Huh? Your statement does nothing to answer the question. If the worst offenders are non-Mormon, why again is this the Mormons' fault? Something is definitely causing Utah's high forclosure rate, but to blame Mormons for something non-Mormons are doing is non sequitur.

27 posted on 02/12/2010 8:49:41 PM PST by TheMightyQuinn
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies ]


To: TheMightyQuinn; MissesBush
Something is definitely causing Utah's high forclosure rate, but to blame Mormons for something non-Mormons are doing is non sequitur.

Wow! Are you really claiming that Mormons in UT aren't getting foreclosures? (Wow! What a re-statement of the situation!) Did you read the article? It said the % rate was only "slightly higher" among non-Mormons -- NOT rampantly so! Do you really understand statistics?

Let's look @ some actual #s as the proper backdrop...CNBC says the foreclosure rate in Utah is 1 in every 231 households. Mortgage.nextag.com says there's just over 700,000 total number of households in the state. So how many foreclosures is that? (Just over 3,000)

So, let's say you live in a community of 2,300 households -- and you've heard 10 of your neighbors have foreclosed in the last year. Now you know that almost 60% of your neighbors are Lds population-wise (over 1,300 households). So, if you figured if that rate cut demographically across the board, you'd have 6 lds & 4 non-lds. But THEN you hear, "No, slightly more non-Mormon than Mormon households (% rate-wise) are getting the foreclosures."

Now given those #s...what does the above then translate into? If 5 Non-Lds households out of the almost 1,000 got foreclosures, that's a rate of under 1 in 200, which would be HIGHER than the Mormon rate of about 1 in 265 households. Now, is 1 in almost 200 higher than 1 in 265? (Yes) Is it "slightly higher"? (No, it's significantly higher). So in THIS example, I've even skewed the rates more favorably toward Mormons...yet Mormons are then still responsible for at least half -- and likely over half -- of the foreclosures in that community...[Remember, if you're 60% of the population & 57% of the foreclosures...sure, you're doing slightly better than 40% of the population & 43% of the foreclosures...but it doesn't mean one foreclosure household is any "worse" than another (your statement that "if the worst offenders are non-Mormon, why again in this the Mormons' fault?")]

Now we don't even have to rely on just statistical logic:
(1) According to a July 2009 Salt Lake Tribune article Provo-Orem tops state in foreclosure-related filings , which Utah metro area had the highest # of foreclosures? (Answer, the Provo-Orem area -- Utah County -- which "coincidentally" has the HIGHEST % of Lds concentration in the entire state!)

In fact this 2003 article says that 88% of this county is LDS! 88% of Utah County is LDS And the 2009 Trib article says: The Provo-Orem area is ranked No. 31 in foreclosure-related filings among more than 200 areas nationwide, a new report shows.

So the area w/88% Mormon population is actually ranked #31 nationwide for regional areas! The Trib said: The Utah County community is the highest-ranked Utah metro area on the list, with 3,168 properties -- approximately 2.2 percent of all housing units-- receiving a filing in the first half of the year. That's up 129 percent from the same time period last year.

According to the Trib, the other 2 areas (known for having 56-58% Lds population) that were responsible for the second & third highest rates: The Salt Lake metro area was at No. 58, with Ogden-Clearfield at No. 59 in the report by RealtyTrac, which monitors a wide range of filings from default notices -- in which homeowners are simply behind on their payments but not yet in danger of losing their properties -- to notices that the bank is taking possession of the property. In the Salt Lake metro area, 5,322 properties -- 1.4 percent of all housing units -- received a foreclosure-related filing in the first half of the year, up 63.2 percent from the same time period last year. In Ogden-Clearfield, 2,397 homes, or 1.4 percent of all homes, received some type of filing. That's up a whopping 82 percent from last year.

So, bottom line even with these two other areas, what I was getting above & in my last post is that no minority population group that has 40% or so of the population -- which has a SLIGHTLY higher foreclosure rate -- is going to "carry the load" in accounting for a state that has a foreclosure rate almost half of the national average. It just isn't statistically possible.

(2) Also, as further evidence, which state has the 2nd highest Lds population % wise? (Answer? Idaho) And where is Idaho in the national foreclosure ranking? (Right behind Utah in 6th place -- 1 in 246 households!)

28 posted on 02/12/2010 11:01:12 PM PST by Colofornian (As the Lds once were, the fLDS are; as the fLDS are, the LDS will become.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies ]

To: TheMightyQuinn
Something is definitely causing Utah's high forclosure rate, but to blame Mormons for something non-Mormons are doing is non sequitur.

To excuse MORMONs because there are non-MORMONs doing something is less than illogical.

45 posted on 02/13/2010 5:38:28 AM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson