Replies

Another list to follow (From HayRide):

Update 3-20, 9:30 PM: And Nye is a NO! We needed that one.

Update 3-20, 9:25 PM: While I was typing the post below, Schrader announced that he will vote yes.

Update 3-20, 8:40 PM: Since we’re unlikely to get more news tonight, I thought I would run down the numbers and possibilities. Republicans have 206 publicly committed votes. We need 216 to defeat the bill. There were ten members of the Stupak group:

1. Stupak
2. Driehaus
3. Lipinski
4. Kaptur
5. Dahlkemper
6. Mollohan
7. Rahall
8. Donnelly
9. Costello
10. Berry

Obviously, if all of those held, that would be enough to defeat the bill, but the cryptic comment of Stupak that he had lost votes and ”at least six” will stand opposed is still puzzling. There are also still five uncommitted members who voted NO in November:

1. Baird
2. Tanner
3. Nye
4. Boucher
5. L. Davis

Pelosi likely has Baird and Tanner in her back pocket, especially Baird. Davis’ situation I detailed below, Boucher represents an overwhelmingly Republican district and said last week that he would vote against the bill if it had big cuts to Medicare (and it does), and Nye represents a Republican district and faces a strong challenge to re-election. I think that the three of them are likely to vote NO.

Finally, we have the non-Stupak ones who voted YES in November but that we would like to flip our way:

1. Ortiz
2. L. Sanchez
3. Kanjorski
4. Foster
5. Michaud
6. Pomeroy
7. Schrader
8. Ron Klein

Sanchez is a new addition to my list. She’s been a presumed YES vote, but it turns out that she didn’t want to vote yes last time and was actually the final Dem to vote in favor. She said this week that “the Senate bill is a bad bill,” and she is facing a serious challenge this fall. She spent today in Florida (yes, you read that correctly) — thus avoiding getting buttonholed by the House leadership, who now reportedly list her as a NO. I also see Schrader, Ortiz, Klein, and Kanjorski as possible votes our way – they all have good reason to vote NO. And Pomeroy is a likely NO vote in my book.

So, I still see Nye, Boucher, Davis, and Pomeroy as likely for us. I also see another six as good possibilities. If we do get four votes from this group, then six from Stupak still wins it for us. And Pelosi still has a lot of other publicly uncommitted members, and we could still get one of those unexpectly, like we did with Lynch.

http://thehayride.com/2010/03/no-bill-no-cbo-numbers-bad-sign-for-obamacare/