The sample doesn’t look representative to me:
Demographics
MEN 242 48%
WOMEN 258 52%
DEMOCRATS 195 39%
REPUBLICANS 97 19%
INDEPENDENTS/OTHER 208 42%
WHITE 451 90%
BLACK 19 4%
HISPANIC 16 3%
OTHER 14 3%
18-29 70 14%
30-44 130 26%
45-59 221 44%
60+ 79 16%
BOSTON 274 55%
SOUTHEAST 111 22%
WEST/CENTRAL 115 23%
I think likeliness of voting will swing harder toward our demographics.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus
“DEMOCRATS 195 39%
REPUBLICANS 97 19%”
2 to 1 sampling bias for liberals, and their poll has the two in a dead heat?
They have to know they are toast. The internals of this are far better than I would have expected. Most pollsters have a thumb on the scale somewhere, but this firm had their entire elbow and it didn’t really help.
| Poll | Date | Sample | Brown (R) | Coakley (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily Kos/R2000 | 1/15 - 1/17 | 500 LV | 48 | 48 | Tie |
| PJM/CrossTarget (R) | 1/17 - 1/17 | 574 LV | 52 | 42 | Brown +10 |
| PPP (D) | 1/16 - 1/17 | 1231 LV | 51 | 46 | Brown +5 |
| InsideMedford/MRG | 1/15 - 1/15 | 565 LV | 51 | 41 | Brown +10 |
| PJM/CrossTarget (R) | 1/14 - 1/14 | 946 LV | 54 | 39 | Brown +15 |
| ARG | 1/12 - 1/14 | 600 LV | 48 | 45 | Brown +3 |
| Blue Mass Group/R2000 (D) | 1/12 - 1/13 | 500 LV | 41 | 49 | Coakley +8 |
| Suffolk/7News | 1/11 - 1/13 | 500 LV | 50 | 46 | Brown +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1/11 - 1/11 | 1000 LV | 47 | 49 | Coakley +2 |
They undersampled independents to gerrymander the results.
Poll is crap.
Independent voters comprise over half the electorate now. My guess is it could surge higher, but in 24 hours we should have some idea.