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To: 100%FEDUP; 2ndMostConservativeBrdMember; ~Vor~; A2J; a4drvr; Adder; Aegedius; Afronaut; alethia; ...
Hey folks, I'm going to give ELECTION CENTRAL a try - but I'll need your help.

Here's the plan: on weekly threads, post news pertaining to the 2010 legislative (federal and state) elections, and I'll periodically ping the list in order to alert everyone to the latest info.

If there's a big news item that deserves its own thread, we'll do that, but perhaps place an excerpt (and link to that thread) here to tie things together.

Feedback and ideas will be appreciated.


This first ping is serving as a bit of a catch-up, future pings will probably be less crammed and more link-y.

General: I'm keeping a list of the congressional candidates and their websites as I know of them. (We'll know who they are when the filing period rolls around, but since campaigning has already begun...) (Post #12)

If I'm missing anyone, let me know.

- As you can see from that list, there are a lot of primaries this year. Right now it's looking like 9 of the 13 House districts will see Republican primaries, even the 12th district (and Mel Watt himself is getting a primary challenge from a Paulite).

- Public Policy Polling (D) did some speculating on Monday on what a Brown win in Massachusetts might mean for North Carolina:

It's a given that Larry Kissell's seat will be strongly contested this fall but a Republican victory in Massachusetts will likely make the party see seats like Heath Shuler's, Mike McIntyre's, and Bob Etheridge's as more winnable than they've been in a long time.

If the GOP can win in Massachusetts that makes the prospects for winning in districts that split their Presidential votes pretty evenly look a lot better than they might have a year ago at this time. And that should help the fundraising efforts of Republican candidates in these North Carolina districts. We've only had one or two hotly contested House races in the state per election cycle most of the last decade but that has the potential to change in this political climate.

Sounds good to me...

US House Dist. 8: Seven Republicans have declared their candidacy (despite what newspapers are saying) while there is speculation that Larry Kissell will be primaried by 2002 Dem candidate Chris Kouri. Kissell's vote against ObamaCare has angered Democrats, including a number of county chairmen, who have been trashing Kissell publicly.

- PPP recently did some polling here, and they claim that Kissell is in "good shape." Some head-to-head match-up numbers...

Kissell 55%
Huddleston 37%

Kissell 54%
D'Annunzio 38%

Kissell 55%
Jordan 39%

Kissell 53%
Johnson 39%

- Tim D'Annunzio has really been getting his name out, buying up billboards across the district and running commercials during Rush on WBT in Charlotte (is he doing this elsewhere?), drawing from the fortune he's made as a successful businessman (an indoor skydiving venture).

Lou Huddleston, a retired army colonel, appears to be the NRCC-favored candidate as evidenced by his making the Young Guns list as 'On the Radar.'

Both men are reaching out with local events over the next few weeks:

Tim D'Annunzio town hall meetings

Thursday, January 21st in Monroe at the Monroe Country Club, 6:30PM
Tuesday, January 26th in Albemarle at the Stanly County Public Library, 6:30PM
Thursday, January 28th in Concord at the Embassy Suites, 7:00PM

Lou Huddleston meet and greets

Monday, January 25th in Albemarle at the Stanly County GOP headquarters, 6:30PM
Monday, February 1st in Concord at Concord Fire Station #8, 7:00PM

US House Dist. 11: This is another packed field, also with seven candidates. The most remarkable candidates thus far are Dr. Dan Eichenbaum (who seems to have substantial ground support early), Hendersonville mayor Greg Newman, and NRCC recruit and Honor Air founder Jeff Miller.

- Eichenbaum will hold town hall webcasts on Fridays at 7PM, beginning this week.

US SENATE: Richard Burr continues to look weak in match-ups, leading but never getting more than 45% against somewhat unknown opponents (I have to wonder if poll respondents think Kenneth Lewis is Ken Lewis of Bank of America). Burr has a name identification problem.

- Speaking of Lewis, he was endorsed by GK Butterfield.

State Senate Dist. 9: Dem incumbent Julia Boseman isn't running for re-election in this generally Republican-voting district. Republican candidates are Michael Lee and Thom Goolsby, but an independent Wilmington city councilwoman Kristi Tomey is doing a signature drive to get onto the ballot. Anyone know anything about Tomey? Specifically, whose chances she would hurt the most?

NC *Ping*

Please FRmail MitchellC if you want to be added to or removed from this North Carolina ping list.
19 posted on 01/20/2010 10:07:26 PM PST by MitchellC
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To: MitchellC
PPP: Burr's monthly check up

Last month Richard Burr's approval rating was 35%. This month it's 36%. Despite that lack of change in voter perceptions of Burr his lead when tested against a generic Democrat has increased from one point to nine over the last five weeks. It's another reminder that Burr's fate is tied up in factors larger than him. When Barack Obama's approval goes down, Burr's chances of being reelected go up. And if the Obama trend ever reverses itself the Burr one likely will as well.

Burr has the approval of 63% of Republicans, 36% of independents, and 16% of Democrats. To get an idea of just how little perceptions of Burr himself have shifted, consider that in January of 2009 his approval was 33%, breaking down at 54% with Republicans, 34% with independents, and 18% with Democrats. So other than a slight shoring up of his support within his own party Burr's numbers are basically unchanged even as he's tried to increase his visibility in preparation for seeking reelection.

Burr leads a generic Democratic candidate 45-36. Tested against his actual Democratic opponents this month he leads Elaine Marshall 44-37, Cal Cunningham 45-36, and Kenneth Lewis 46-34.

The Democratic candidates continue to sport low name recognition, no surprise in what is at this point an insiders campaign with no money being spent on media. 70% of voters have no opinion of Marshall, 83% don't of Lewis, and 85% say the same of Cunningham. The Democratic field is actually faring well compared to Kay Hagan, who trailed Elizabeth Dole 48-35 at this point in January of 2008. Their numbers relative to Burr will likely improve as they become better known- our first poll after Hagan's successful primary campaign found her deficit narrowing 48-43 before she went on to victory in the fall.

Nevertheless the political climate in 2010 is fundamentally different than it was in 2008 and that is to Burr's considerable advantage.

Full results here

21 posted on 01/21/2010 8:38:56 AM PST by MitchellC
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To: MitchellC

Can we get rid of the arrogant, stupid David Price??!!


22 posted on 01/21/2010 9:52:23 AM PST by nclaurel
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To: MitchellC; Tax-chick
Matt Burden, Blackfive, has endorsed a Marine EllTee for NC-07.

Ilario Pantano

46 posted on 02/02/2010 7:25:27 PM PST by concretebob (Because someone has to say it!!!!!!!!!)
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